tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-51202106500854718842024-03-13T07:00:54.690-07:00 Boidis Focus - "Plain Talk and More"Jan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5120210650085471884.post-6047604127813605752017-05-28T11:44:00.000-07:002017-05-28T11:51:35.495-07:00Towards Renewable Energy in Botswana<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In my writings so far (collected in my blog), I have been
discussing current and future energy dependence and possible renewable sources
- mostly in general and based on books and articles from the global North. For
me and others down here this discussion has lacked structure but that can now
change, hopefully, by initiatives from the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its workhorse, the Conference of Parties (COP). <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Earlier, it has been a lot of flimsy reasoning and
speculations by “greens and deniers”, pragmatic perma-culturists and serious
researchers. Everything from 0 to 100% renewable energy proposals have been on
the board. Now nations from all over the globe is discussing urgent climate
change issues (as they are felt everywhere) and now it is possible to see a
light at the end of the speculation tunnel. That must be the basis for
continued writing and discussion – a structure to use as the basis for Our
Renewable Future! The decision makers have a forum, albeit often on opposing
sides of the table and now we have to include the common man, otherwise we will
not reach the important goals, in my opinion. The problems in the global North
are not the same we have here in the South – a bit simplified we can say that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">they</i> created climate change and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">we</i> are only suffering observers also
hoping for a viable future.<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Looking in the back mirror, we also realize that some “green”
enthusiasm is needed. Ancient technology and concepts are important knowledge
for the future but impossible as a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">single
basis</i> for it. The ecological balance in the olden times has been totally
changed by the industrial revolution and we have to base a future life on the
often disastrous results of that – consequently our fight against climate
change, the result of earlier neglect.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">To be fair, the 100% renewable energy needed for the
global North to keep up their expensive life styles, is <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">theoretically</i> feasible but not viable in a future without cheap
fossil fuels – and we have to find a way of surviving the effects of earlier
neglect even if it will mean less energy per person (e.g. a proper balance
between South and North). Saving electricity will be an important issue.<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">So
let’s see how our African “global South” can achieve a decent energy basis – a
question argued in the last COP meeting in Marrakech. The global North is disagreeing
with a few queries/opinions from the South and that is a matter of concern. It
has to do with conceptual matters, geography, pollution and finance.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Now, there is an interesting sub-board at COP – it’s
labeled NDC for Nationally Determined Contributions. I have some issues to discuss
and propose for our readers and delegates to the subsidiary meeting in May/17
(in Bonn) and the next COP 23 in Nov/17 on Fiji. Let me argue the following, a
way of “reflecting before”:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">We are since long used to the frustration that comes with
big megaprojects – Morocco for instance has such a one just a short trip to the
east of Marrakech called the Quarzazate Solar Plant. I guess most delegates
have admired that project and I will be back on this issue in future writings
about the myth of mega projects..<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">I start my conceptual
discussion with this pictorial metaphor – picture 1 is a simple home with some
solar panels and picture 2 is something like a Sua Pan covered by solar panels
– in order to find a viable energy concept for Botswana:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkHQSUZO39vGjWo6ZH8KjLYsHRhZ6zBGOrCcqO6ZlwBWWDOEJPbY6Geo8S7bRehdzwZTeZjdy19UftehBkZZZRmaqU31ACUN9gqqcF3l_-3NKYvbd5iaocQyVjv4JA4wVO8JJWqHnM0fM/s1600/papablog.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><img border="0" data-original-height="225" data-original-width="619" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkHQSUZO39vGjWo6ZH8KjLYsHRhZ6zBGOrCcqO6ZlwBWWDOEJPbY6Geo8S7bRehdzwZTeZjdy19UftehBkZZZRmaqU31ACUN9gqqcF3l_-3NKYvbd5iaocQyVjv4JA4wVO8JJWqHnM0fM/s640/papablog.PNG" width="640" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">As intended, the illustrations span from simple roof
panels to a mega-plant but there are logical steps in between. However, I like
to propose that we start simple with a step by step concept, as Pic 1
indicates:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Step One</span></u><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> - let’s create a program for improving and <u>saving
electricity</u> by lessen the power used for individual houses and install
solar panels everywhere including community service buildings. With GoB
support, BPC can make it a “purchase loan scheme” like the ones they (and the
Housing Corporation) already have. Raising the value of the national housing
stock by increasing standards with cheap loans is in fact making a wealthy
nation – often used in the Scandinavian countries.</span></span></i><br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></i><br />
<span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><em>As the BPC power is already there in most cases and needed to overcome
the intermittent power problem, it seems to me very simple: some panels,
transformer/converter and a battery installment is all that’s needed as long as
there is the BPC backup. Consequently, it is an <u>energy saving concept</u>
rather than a complete renewable future solution and a step towards a more
decentralized provision. The savings will also be used to power the 20% of the
rural villages not covered so far and upgrading of existing power grid.</em></span></span><br />
<span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><em></em></span></span><br />
<span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt;">Step Two</span></u></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt;"> could be to start
medium scale solar and wind plants, scaled for small villages and urban
neighborhood units – between 2-5 ha unused fields or natural impediments are
needed, only. This is often a concept used in the Nordic countries I’ve seen,
and the scale is acceptable environmentally due to the minimal impact. In
short, this kind of planning will improve savings and also result in an
improved employment situation and not a conclusion in the learned books we have
been penetrating. <o:p></o:p></span></i><br />
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</span><br />
</span></span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 18.8pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Furthermore. many large consumers like urban industries
seldom have their roofs plastered with solar panels (to my astonishment not
even for hot water) as well as most greenhouses for vegetable production that
also need lots of power are seldom using solar panels. Here are more savings possible
that might result in fewer large scale plants out of reach financially for us
and often with negative environmental impacts). The problem here is the energy
storage and we return to this later.</span></i></span></span></div>
<span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 18.8pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt;"></span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This medium scale, decentralized energy plants can be illustrated
like this pic below and we can easily imagine an African village with a disused
field near and filled with solar panels albeit this is a Scandinavian small
town.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheNdIz9eDmu1-TsRAEgGWQ-0r2EZk_l4cPiKpZlDCHWHefKDLZytCbhZTJpL3f2u1soqWIPp0_qBIv91d7eoMWbmRVEP2ZnKb6QTrBJDW8pEBQyrX0Z49tiAyQSCLs2xbR3q-tG_7gU9M/s1600/pic2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><img border="0" data-original-height="252" data-original-width="363" height="277" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheNdIz9eDmu1-TsRAEgGWQ-0r2EZk_l4cPiKpZlDCHWHefKDLZytCbhZTJpL3f2u1soqWIPp0_qBIv91d7eoMWbmRVEP2ZnKb6QTrBJDW8pEBQyrX0Z49tiAyQSCLs2xbR3q-tG_7gU9M/s400/pic2.PNG" width="400" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">My
choice of illustrations doesn’t imply that we <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">only</i> have a plan A (pic 1) and B pic 2) to choose between. Rather
meant to indicate where we must start and where we might end. I’ll try and
explain pros and cons and futher encourage our outspoken ministers, vocal on
this issue of “renewable energy”.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></span><br />
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">What’s neglected in most conceptual writings about the
“renewable future” is the important issue of the social inclusion of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">the common man</i>, thus the education about
the necessity of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">saving</i> energy. So,
we have to find a step by step approach here and find a long-term viability of
proposed concepts as well as being able to meet costs and it means <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">less energy per capita</i> as savings start
at home.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">If we dare to get into heavy debts on behalf of our next
generations, we are hand cuffing them to a forever ongoing dependency syndrome.
And if the costs and debts are not met, they are forever sentenced to
structural adjustments, austerity and unemployment. Please note, that the
renewable future projects already implemented here and there, consequences like
the ones I mentioned are a fact! <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The social, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">common
man</i> involvement is crucial, as I see I, but I’ve noted recently that the
issue is part of the BOCONGO and BCC concept for their Selibe-Phikwe project.
That’s fine but it must also be part of the future energy solution for the
country. It is seriously needed if the “dependency syndrome” should be avoided –
more self help is preferable! And this will have impact on future energy
concepts, to be sure. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The storage of renewable energy/electricity is possible
in the low and medium range of intermittent power. The BBC News online pages recently
had an interesting project presented – “The Cryogenic Energy Storage (CES) in
an article dated 10/12/2016. In short it spells out the following:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The
CES project, now leaving the experimental stage (5 MW) for reality (200–1200 MW
already in the design stage) is using some electricity produced to freeze air
(cleaned of CO2 – a very old technology today) into a liquid state and stored
in containers of different kind. When warmed up, the liquid air expands
700-1000 in volume and will drive “steam” turbines producing electricity when
solar or wind turbines are “sleeping”. Thus, the need to depend on the existing
traditional grid is eliminated. A solar plant can be self sufficient in other
words. <o:p></o:p></span></i><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">And here we have another
plus for our country with rather bad waste management: Combined with waste
treatment, it can be run on the electricity produced by the refuse
tip/landfill! This part of the project is nowadays routine in developed
countries but not here, yet. And there is more interesting news and let’s hear
it from this source:</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Highbrow
Power’s demonstrator plant is next to Pilsworth landfill gas generation site in
the Manchester plant. The large insulated tanks are between this site and the
new cryogenic plant. The rubbish burning generates methane gas produced from
decomposing rubbish to produce electricity, not enough to be of serious
interest for large scale housing and industrial areas though, but enough to
produce and heat liquid air, essential for the cryogenic process. <o:p></o:p></span></i><br />
<br />
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">And
there is a remarkable side effect – when putting in both electrical and thermal
energy, the amount of resulting electrical energy can in some cases end up
being more than the electrical energy you put in!<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Those are very interesting news to us here in the global
South – we can combine efforts for a better environment and, so to say, have
two birds with one stone! But as a conclusion, I think some quotes from
renewable energy experts are prudent. The first one from Prof M Mooiman, at UB
2015/16:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;">“</span>One of the axioms of the
energy business is: It takes energy to get energy. We have to expend energy
drilling into oil deposits, pumping, refining, and transporting the oil before
we can use it as petrol to power our cars; we have to expend energy mining,
processing, and transporting coal before we can burn it; even in the renewable
energy field, where we have free fuel sources, such as sunlight, we have to
expend energy creating the components of solar panels, transporting, and
installing them. Every energy source requires an investment of a certain amount
of energy to recover energy that we can use somewhere else. The trick is to be
sure that the energy invested is less than the energy produced. This concept
called EROI – energy return on investment (also referred to as EROEI – energy
recovered on energy invested). The formula for EROI is straightforward:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">EROI = Energy recovered/Energy Invested = Energy
output/Energy input<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">One always wants the EROI to be greater than 1, i.e., one
wants to recover more output energy than input energy. There are many ways to
calculate the inputs and outputs, but the most rigorous way is to undertake a
life-cycle analysis and compare all the inputs and outputs over the whole life
of the project. The range of EROI values in the energy field is wide: for
hydropower, it is of the order of 80; for ethanol from biomass, it is of the
order of 5… “ <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt;"></span></i><br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt;">a</span></i><span style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt;">nd the EIOI coefficient for solar power, often promised by
manufacturers to 10-12 is in reality down to 2-3.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Another interesting voice on the internet is</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">
Prof Ugo Bardi, a distinguished member of the Club of Rome:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“I
still want to know if the following can be done and does the EROEI include it
all (plus the extra energy demand I haven’t thought of):<o:p></o:p></span></i><br />
</span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span></i><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Mine the raw materials using equipment
powered by solar panels.<o:p></o:p></span></i></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<br />
</span><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span></i><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Transport and convert metal ores, eg.
bauxite-aluminum, using equipment run by solar panels and in a factory built
using the energy from solar panels. <o:p></o:p></span></i></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<br />
</span><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span></i><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Make the finished panels in a factory
run by solar panels, including building and maintaining the factory.<o:p></o:p></span></i></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<br />
</span><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt 36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4.<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span></i><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Transport, install and maintain the
solar panels using equipment running on solar panels.<o:p></o:p></span></i></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">All
this is presently being done (mainly) with the energy from fossil fuels. How
will it be done when they are gone?”<o:p></o:p></span></i><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Let me conclude with some positive news – naturally we
cannot for the future go on by hooking solar panels to buildings and build
plants over useful land. We must do that only for the existing built up
environment. The long term solution is to include the energy gadgets among the
construction elements. Solar panels of the type we have today will be roof
construction material, for instance. Its an architecture, engineering and
planning issue to be solved. For instance, the bright innovator Elon Musk is
already presenting roof tiles and shingles with solar collection qualities,
expensive for a start as well as his battery cars but a right innovation. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
</span><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">We can also do that! Already in year 2000 there was a
report that especially Egypt, Botswana and the Philippines were ideal for solar
energy production! <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Well, there we are and the
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Jan Wareus<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 6;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;">janwareus@yahoo.com</span></a><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;">janwareus.blogspot.com<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></i><br />Jan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5120210650085471884.post-59925800731377776142016-11-08T09:41:00.001-08:002016-11-08T09:43:46.381-08:00Our Renewable Future 5<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><strong></strong></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><strong>On Feasibility and
Viability of Renewable Energy</strong></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I start this writing with a
pictorial metaphor that is the theme for this essay– picture 1 is a simple home
with some solar panels and picture 2 is something like a Sua Pan covered by
solar panel – which way Botswana?</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">We sure live
in interesting times – energy experts and researchers, even some academics have
often demonstrated very split minds and results on the feasibility of future renewable energy. Especially so regarding the
very crux of the matter – the EROEI (Energy Return On Energy Invested) and the
EPBT (Energy Pay Back Time) to the confusion of worried people and the pleasure
of the so called “deniers”. Of course, this is bickering in an ebony tower,
mostly, and it’s like the passengers of Titanic trying to choose a life boat
with the best warranty. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">However, the
so called “greens” have grown strong lately. Their objections to “no-worry-deniers”
(often in media and various authorities) and still wide spread ignorance among
ordinary salary people (to make a difference to unemployed wage people), and a
resilient concentration on avoiding a possible end of life on Earth, is
maturing, as far as I can see. It must be the “climate change” effects that
even a blind can see (as my grandfather use to say) . And population migration,
xenophobia, no money to buy the products of an industrialism running without harness
– remember old Henry Ford (my worker must
be paid enough to buy a car)? Hurricanes, no electricity for days,
beautiful beach houses flooded and polluted air/water. Just to mention a few
modern drawbacks!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So, of course
the number of worried people increases – and they are often basing their
opinion on their intuition. As well
as many “experts” must do – and that’s a crux that makes people turn to their
inside instead of listen to facts and turn to metaphysics of the time (the
space, more praying and so on). Are we mentally lost in a globalized world? But
many have mobilized – we even have a TCM (The Climate Mobilization). Many
people are now acting and this is encouraging to me! <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">We are today forced to make use intuition and
guesstimates. Nothing can be fully “EROEI’d” prior to action! And action is
needed urgently and should have come latest in the 1960’s to be fully in use
today. Is it better late than never? We don’t fully know but we know that we can
hardly pay for it today. Some brains
are telling us, that we now have a last chance albeit it will cost more than we
have in our pockets. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">My question
is – can we take it step by step or must we mimic US and the G20 here in
Africa? Let’s start and see what the chances are for the already industrialized
world, maybe “postindustrial” is a better word. We have to study a number of
late texts, books and blogs by writers like McKinnon, Heinberg, Greer, Sarkar
and others to find an answer on the feasibility
to start, and we will find that the feasibility is there but what about long
time viability?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">In other
columns, I have given Richard Heinberg and David Finlay of the Post Carbon
Institute ample attention on the feasibility
of renewable energy and discussed their eye opening book “Our Renewable Future”
but management and viability are in the concept, too – more on this later! In
fact, most writers from G20 are dealing with their country-centric problems.
But we must realize - their problems
are not exactly ours!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Let us
quickly look into their problems – of
which 100% renewal energy is the main one to keep them going as currently (e.g.
including the industries, world military rule, petro-dollar and subsequent
money-printing, media imperialism, lifestyles a s o). In short, they realize
that money must be spent to keep a modern colonialism alive. It is therefore
absolutely natural that they are not making the financing a great problem – <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>invincibility rules and must continue! I’m
sorry to say this – but it’s the truth for African countries and many others!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">We cannot put
much hope to a writer like Bill McKinnon (from the 350.org fame) when he’s writing
a book about “A World at War”, underpinning that the West is at war regarding
the resources (well, we know that!). He can go on writing the Democratic
Platforms for coming years (he wrote the one for this year). But even an
excellent writer like Richard Heinberg from the famous Post Carbon Institute is
unfortunately basing “Our Renewable Future” findings on the same <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>– but it doesn’t work completely for him, as
we will see later.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Today there
seems to be an understanding that US can go on as it does today at a cost (and
we here know where the payment comes from). This is irritating when discussing
our global human survival, as I see it. South America, Africa and Asia must
discuss it from another angle! The G20 people is a minority and we are the big
majority and instead of proposing more
technology, we probably have to pinpoint what less technology can do – and this needs more “footwork” by
distressed peoples. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I now have to
confess that I’m heavily basing my conclusions on an Indian professor, Sakal Sarkar.
He finds the “war” metaphor very inappropriate and tries to discuss the future
where “G120” have something of a consensus (or ought to have). His points are: <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The
“feasibility concept” might be very unfortunate. Even blinded by muscle and
optimism, the 100% renewable basis is doubtable – the hope for more expensive
technology is, maybe, feasible but
not viable. But he agrees with
McKinnon that we “need to build a hell
lot of factories to turn out the thousands of acres of solar panels and wind
turbines at the length of football fields and millions and millions of electric
cars and buses”. Sakar is also referring to David Roberts that puts it as
follows, very vividly:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">“Well, have a look at Solar City’s
gigafactory, … It will be the biggest solar manufacturing facility … covering
27 acres, capable of cranking out 10.000 solar panels a day – a gigawatt’s
worth in a year. At the height of its transition to WWS (wind, water, solar),
the US would have to build around 30 gigafactories a year devoted to solar
panels, and another 15 a year for wind turbines. That’s 45 of the biggest
factories ever built, every year. It is [even for an American] a mind boggling
pace of building…” </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">My comment –
maybe that’s the business idea? There’s already about 50 wind turbine factories
in the US but most solar panels are Chinese – pocket the Chinese ones and the
US corporations are forever in business and able to print “sun-and-wind dollars”!
<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">How we here
in Africa should handle 100 m high aluminum turbines standing on several
thousand tons bases and many hundreds of hectares of solar panels will be a
subsequent dilemma for us. The little water we have is already earmarked – we
here in Botswana have salt, perfect for concentrated solar plants but not the
needed water! <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">However, the
viability problem will sort this out in the G20, I’m sure. Already it’s clear
that a wind turbine has only a 20 year lifespan and in Germany a 1000 of their
ab. 25,000 turbines must be exchanged every year and Germany has so far just been
able to replace coal and nuclear electricity (some days). That’s only a ¼ of
the energy cake – there is something like a ½ cake made by fossil fuel left to
replace. Another thing is – the climate change results in so much bad winds
that old statistics never indicated. What hurricanes do to renewable can be
seen from photos on the net! Imagine – climate change is met by renewables but is
often winning round 2 (the viability round). I think we seriously have to look
into “appropriate technologies” including energy savings here in Africa!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">But Prof. Sarkar
is giving Mc Kinnon right regarding “we
are building a huge amount of shit” from the renewable drive. Quoting him
we read:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">“Remember that all machines and all
products wear out and have a limited lifespan. The same holds for solar panels,
wind turbines and machines with which we make them. They have to be replaced,
sooner or later, even factory buildings. Remember also that inorganic
nonrenewable materials cannot be fully recycled, because the entropy law also
applies to materials. As many in the ecology movement have been saying for
quite a few years now, if it should go on like this, we humans would soon need
at least two more planets – one as our resource base and the other as our waste
dumping site”.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Myself, I suddenly remember – not many years ago
some EU countries wanted to dump their waste here in Africa, and worst thing -
there were many country leaders interested in the proposed deals with the ones
that robbed us of our resources and then wanted to dump “shit” here! Conclusive
colonialism? Another Sarkar quotation:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">“…the true production process in the
industrial age … is not a cyclical
but a continuous linear process, that
begins with resource extraction and ends with dumping waste in landfills or in
the atmosphere or in the waters, while midway (if we are lucky) giving us
consumers some satisfaction and fulfilling some of our material and immaterial
basic and non-basic needs.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">This install
started with some words about EROEI and Prof. Sarkar’s writings on this issue
are also highly interesting and giving me new doubts about the feasibility and
viability of a hefty and costly 100% hurried renewable future here in Africa. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">We are not
curing our increasing obesity, now - we have to start dieting, saving and get
the right dress by time! Let us see what Prof. Sarkar says about EROEI and Net
Energy (abridged by me):<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">When we
change to so called renewable energy and can pay for initial transitional
costs, we must remember that (if we are able to implement just some few small
steps) that the concept is neither free from CO</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">2</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> emission, nor generally
pollutions-free, nor sustainable – for instance: clean energies and engines
today are just a little cleaner and
still have emissions. And it must be understood that all kind of energy,
produced of any kind of machines, for many years are produced by a decreasing amount of fossil fuels and
emitting scaring amounts of pollution! <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It’s
interesting that Richard Heinberg, the co-author of “Our Renewable Future”
lately (Sept 2012) has responded to comments on the book as follows:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">“We concluded
that, while in theory it may be possible to build enough solar
and wind supply capacity to substitute for current
fossil energy sources, much of
current energy usage infrastructure (for transportation, agriculture, and
industrial processes) will be difficult
and expensive to adapt to using renewable electricity. In the face of these
and other related challenges, we suggest that it likely won’t be possible to maintain a consumption-oriented growth
economy in the post-fossil future, and that we would all be better off
aiming to transition to a simpler and
more localized conserver economy.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">From all
studies so far it is clear that it is assumed
that solar and wind energy yield an sufficient amount of net energy – and
probably done to attract investments in a world where a few owns much more than
governments and nations. (Note that investments are going down significantly
now when oil is very cheap!) <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The
difference between feasibility and viability is crucial! This is an
interesting fact that we must keep in mind, prior to take loans from IMF/WB or
even AfDB for becoming “green”. The private investors know this and are already
withdrawing from the ring or field. The crux of this matter is the financing – by our neo-liberal, global
investors profit makers or a more balanced concept of public welfare? <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Before I discuss
my idea of how to handle the matter here in Africa, I cannot but knock down
another fine contribution to the dilemma by another professor. His name is Ugo
Bardi and a distinguished member of the Club of Rome:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">“I still want to know if the following
can be done and does the EROEI include it all plus the extra energy demand I
haven’t thought of):<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 88.85pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Mine the raw materials using equipment
powered by solar panels.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 88.85pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Transport and convert metal ores, eg.
bauxite-aluminum, using equipment run by solar panels and in a factory built
using the energy from solar panels. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 88.85pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Make the finished panels in a factory
run by solar panels, including building and maintaining the factory.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt 88.85pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: Verdana;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4.<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Transport, install and maintain the
solar panels using equipment running on solar panels.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">All this is presently being done
(mainly) with the energy from fossil fuels. How will it be done when they are
gone?”<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I have a
proposed conclusion how to do it a non-US-centric way here below (a quotation
from my own writings, for once):<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Proposed feasible and viable first
steps to a renewable future for a not very industrialized country:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 18.8pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Step One</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> - let’s create a program for improving
and saving electricity by lessen the power used for individual houses and install
solar panels everywhere including community service buildings. With GoB
support, BPC can make it a “purchase loan scheme” like the ones they (and the
Housing Corporation) already have. As the BPC power is already there in most
cases and for the time needed to overcome the intermittent problem, it seems to
me very simple: some panels, transformer/converter and a battery installment is
all that’s needed as long as there is the BPC backup. Consequently, it is an energy
saving concept rather than a complete renewable future solution and a step
towards a more decentralized provision than the “G20” advice we read about.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 18.8pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Interestingly, savings of domestic and institutional consumption
might make BPC able to do necessary improvements on their delivery network to
make possible inclusion of larger scaled wind and solar production units (and include
the 20% of settlements still not connected). It is often stated that existing,
conventional production and delivery system cannot take more than 5% of
“outside” intermittent energy without expensive and time consuming upgrade of
existing facilities. But a hurdle already overcome in many of the G20 countries
– reports are available on the net and too many study trips can be avoided, for
sure!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 18.8pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Step Two</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> could be to start medium scale solar
and wind plants, scaled for small villages and urban neighborhood units – 2-5
ha unused fields or natural impediments. This is often a concept used in the
Nordic countries I’ve seen, and the scale is acceptable environmentally due to the
minimal impact. In short, this kind of planning- wise approved initial steps
might improve savings and also result in an improved employment situation and,
thus, recommended by this writer, and not a conclusion in the books we have
been penetrating. Many large consumers like urban industries seldom have their
roofs plastered with solar panels (to my astonishment not even for hot water)
as well as most greenhouses for vegetable production that also need lots of
power but are seldom using solar panels. Here are more savings possible that
might result in fewer large scale plants (that often have negative
environmental impact).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">Food for Thoughts !?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span>Jan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5120210650085471884.post-22182511706553549042016-10-02T10:47:00.000-07:002016-10-02T11:06:39.599-07:00Our Renewable Future 4<b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-8678-4652-282f-0cf18f6243c9" style="font-weight: normal;"></b><br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.295; margin-bottom: 8pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-8678-4652-282f-0cf18f6243c9" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Ending Part 3 of the “renewable” columns, I touched upon the question of the possibilities of financing a transition from fossil fuels to a renewable energy concept for the future and here. I find my worry very important against the financial meltdown we are currently experiencing and the huge costs for the complete transition, currently implemented in the industrialized countries.</span></b><br />
<br />
<b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-8678-4652-282f-0cf18f6243c9" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The well researched book (Our Renewable Future – available online) clearly indicates that the feasible concept is tapping sun and wind using now well known sustainable technologies (around </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">there</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> for many decades, already). However, the technologies are high-tech and expensive as well as much resource and energy consuming. Furthermore, based on conventional industrial products using what we try to eliminate – fossil fuel dependency. Everything must get worse until it gets better, they say!</span></b><br />
<br />
<b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-8678-4652-282f-0cf18f6243c9" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">To take an example from Germany that has about 25 000 wind turbines today at $1.5-3 million each (sponsored 70% by government) with a life span of c. 20 years – there was a photo of a fallen 19 yr old one in Part 1. These very big high-tech “monsters” are 300-foot towers with a 60-ton generator nacelle and the 200-foot blades often on thousand tons of concrete and rebar foundation. Aluminum and concrete have a huge carbon footprint, among the biggest in the construction industry. And, of course, a wind farm with many hundreds of them will need good roads for maintenance and repair trucks. Germany is now busy exchanging 1000 of the first built ones every year to the pleasure of many manufactures. Wind turbines produce electricity cheaper than conventional energy plants – but are such costs acceptable for not so industrialized countries in need of loans?</span></b><br />
<br />
<b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-8678-b887-903d-0d1e72c24541" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I think we must worry about the chosen technology and do research to find cheaper and better, a more appropriate technology, the day we are considering wind turbines, for instance. And we now have institutions as a University of Technology (BIUST) and the Innovation Hub! But the revelation day is still a bit into the future as we will see – there are smaller steps that will be needed for a start. However, let us first have a look into our situation on the Limits To Growth (LTG) chart:</span></b></div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana";"><br /></span>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="C:\Users\warius-new\Desktop\LTGScenario1[1].jpg" height="265" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/_LqrUdIPO5jzBXcQvenuOHgaTwCWPRLNeCjHdvayX2MWY_hPkpyPYTjQqwsf5cBygrqstlTEf_xo_r_o2RU9UW1uWBhsPKpfVUpIxGvrRmwgG2-13fAj3IkU91ZqbQLKiqe8y6m0dFcf3e6YWQ" style="border-image: none; border: medium; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-8679-d6da-7ba3-8febe19f86d3" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Fig 4.1 From Limits To Growth 2004 - based on LTG chart 1972</span></b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-867a-9ea5-a401-abe13ef979b0" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">It is interesting and frightening to see the finance and oil based industrial output coinciding with the resources decline and also that all (except resources) is based on the industrial era development that after 1950/60 took a steep upturn – this is when neo-liberalism (and globalism) started blossom – I leave this to friends interested in ideology and political/economical doctrines (and </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">note</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> that the problem started when the gold-dollar became petro-dollar and the oil for future had to be secured). Great worry must be given the indication that the food and population curves are very far from each other in 2050 – this is alarming as it often is the cause of riots and wars and we experience this even today, but just a start of something bigger. In these times of tumult we are supposed to switch to renewable energy – oops! We also see that pollution will go up and we have to build a renewable world that, unfortunately, will result in increased pollution for the transitional period. So – worse before better but can Gaia take it?</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-867a-9ea5-a401-abe13ef979b0" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></b></span></span>
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">When should a feasible transition have started? Probably latest in 1965 when my Professor Georg Borgström wrote about “Limits for our Existence”. I have a saved Cohiba cigar for the good answers I’ll be given.</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana";"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Back to the financing of Our Renewable Future – Part 3 of my articles had an illustration from a net-blog and it’s repeated here below:</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-867a-9ea5-a401-abe13ef979b0" style="font-weight: normal;">
</b><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="C:\Users\warius-new\Desktop\Global Credit Market.jpeg" height="286" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/SmPyE0geMHuIOiWpvp_wJ-6TRKLRXPD9kSKiJr_hBFMVi1_KSbhQO-coyaDTiDJUXgxmCgy4QqK8xo4LHJ35kve-m3eWaVaYfDyNfAR2N8qV-4MqlLqIa_B1J6b8aMdnE-guar-PrEOZV4VaJg" style="border-image: none; border: medium; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div>
<b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-867b-4b06-0b40-8c73ca378949" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Fig 4.2 From Mike Roscoe finance blog in May 2016 (end curves 2013)</span></b></div>
<div>
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-867b-bf59-f995-45e06d61adb3" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The charts ends in 2013 and now in 2016 the situation is – debts owed is ab. 200 trill and world GPD ab. 50 trill. The 2/3 gap is probably a ¾ gap today. Sounds horrible for the future loan/dept situation </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">but</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> ab. 1/3 of the dept curve isn’t based on </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">real </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">wealth! The upper 1/3 of the dept curve is “paper debts” - i.e. artificial and based on newly printed money, overvalued mortgages, bonds, hedge funds, derivatives and other so called Wall Street constructions that most banks and economic pundits are basing their dementia reporting on (in papers and even radio/TV). As usual, this will result in a big bubble bang but this time too big to be covered by tax money/governments to the demise of the banks “too big to fall” – that’s is the fact that Barclays is basing their current downsizing on! Be that what it might be – the debts are just too big to cover for a change of the energy tools we need right now. When a big finance bubble is bursting, people and nations must rely on basic footwork and now it’s time to speak about a feasible change to renewable and proper steps to take.</span>
</b></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-867b-bf59-f995-45e06d61adb3" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">We start, again, with a chart from the book we use for our discussion – Our Renewable Future (chapter 9):</span></b></span></span></span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.295; margin-bottom: 8pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="WEB Figure 9-1 Selected countries public investments in renewable energy" height="328" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/FRCc5qT3ZL9k8fSQLU1dOR7bYtZdR1opf4Porxxxd7KIZMdR0lhgUBvs1GITgCJh3y2TP2lz5NpI5SivwtLZqlvr3ltbq_mRMQt-TpwIer88Z48Bw8rPSQDbJJNovaVdyrwr0ZPfNOf1G2OwSA" style="border-image: none; border: medium; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="640" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-867c-4e99-827a-a2677e51f469" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Fig 4.3 Selected countries’ public investments in renewable energy research and development</span></b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-867b-ec8e-99de-da016283ce98" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "crimson text"; font-size: 15.333333333333332px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></b><b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike></span></span></span></div>
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-867d-0b9c-84df-b0a3fe8bd49b" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Looking at this chart, it must be remembered that it deals only with </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">improvements</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> to the existing electricity sector (ab. 20% of energy demand today).However, it’s clear that it is only fully fledged industrial countries (and a few “semi” ones) that so far are into the first step to a 100% renewable future. Hardly any former “colony”! Why? We have to be on this chart as we are pride of having a BIUST and an Innovative Hub – hope you agree. Or are we still looted and do we have to ask for “discount, sir”?</span></b></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></b></span></span>
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I think I have to conclude this presentation of an eye opening book. I choose by sticking out my glass-chin (old boxer as I am) and present how I think a country in the Southern Africa should meet a renewable future, step by step. But I’m not a specialist and there are few others around here – but it is necessary to meet the future with our feet steady on our ground. We should not accept so called “global treaties” but do it our own way – for instance: coal is a bad pollutant and soon there are no buyers. What can we do about it – we can clean the pollutants which today seemingly cost more than a transport to the east (and cost for transport </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">and </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">cleaning makes it no deal to them). But, no transport and cleaning </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">here</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> might become basis for the temporary lee time we need, isn’t it? With or without a new railway to the west (or east)! As road based transport is a enormous problem for renewable energy, I guess the railway will soon pay its cost.</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 15.333333333333332px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></b></span></span>
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 15.333333333333332px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Now to the first trembling steps I think we must take to a renewable future: It normally takes years to start up new programs/projects - consequently we must use ongoing ones. And there are possibilities as I see it in the many recent projects we have e.g. ESP (Economical Stimulus Project) and Ipeleng and others. And, for a start, there isn’t a single young fellow that can’t climb a roof and put a solar panel into use. And a lot of retired BPC workers that can attach the wires to an existing fuse box and attach a volt converter (very cheap today) in between. With some project supervision, these locals could be used in a small first step towards renewables.</span></b></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 15.333333333333332px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Thus, step one: Let’s create a program for improving and saving electricity by lessen the power used for individual houses by installing solar panels everywhere including community service buildings. With GoB support, BPC can make it a “purchase loan scheme” like the ones they already have. As the BPC power is already there in many cases and for the time needed (the intermittent problem), it seems to me very simple 2 panels, transformer/converter and a battery installment is all that’s needed as long as there is the BPC backup. Consequently, it is a energy saving concept rather than a complete renewable future solution.</span></b></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-867d-0b9c-84df-b0a3fe8bd49b" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 15.333333333333332px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Interestingly, savings of domestic and small institutional consumption might make BPC able to do necessary improvements on their delivery network to make possible inclusion of large scale wind and solar farms (and include the 20% still not connected). It is often stated that existing, conventional production and delivery system cannot take more than 5% of “outside” energy. But that has proven wrong I many countries that have substantial renewable energy sources – after upgrading of existing network, of course. </span></b></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-867d-0b9c-84df-b0a3fe8bd49b" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 15.333333333333332px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">A second step could be to construct medium scale solar and wind farms scaled for small villages and urban neighborhood units – 2-5 ha unused fields or natural impediments. This is often a concept used in the Nordic countries I’ve seen, and the scale is acceptable environmentally due to the minimal impact. In short, this kind of initial small step might improve savings and also result in an improved employment situation and, thus, recommended by </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 15.333333333333332px; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">this</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 15.333333333333332px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> writer, ant not a conclusion in the book we penetrate.Many large consumers like urban industries seldom have their large roofs plastered with solar panels (to my astonishment not even for hot water) as well as most greenhouses for vegetable production that also need lots of power but are not using the sun. Here are more savings possible that might result in fewer large scale plants (that often have negative environmental impact – see fig 4.4!</span></b></span></span></div>
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.295; margin-bottom: 8pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="C:\Users\warius-new\Desktop\Windfarm Calif 1987.jpeg" height="229" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/EYPAtFoBmS55oK3yXArrV07ydvay2M9oPcHke0epHUdjwTP9exFjI5G0ov0fNmsg2S0KQVkKfmdRP4_DXNHn5k5B1z3eKb64yBicAQwPO0s8dipJZFKJYjEjN5ajcxyN5cz8m8QMjij7JMr-5w" style="border-image: none; border: medium; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-867d-fd47-ae0a-f80b17322b4e" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Fig 4.4 Wind Farm in California 1986 – they started early!</span></b></td></tr>
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<b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-867e-57e9-2da1-5a18fb155c18" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This photo is interesting – First, it is from 1986 (from the Altamont Pass in northern California) so, the technology has been around for long and obviously to acceptable cost, there. Now, costs are through the roof and GDP’s very problematic. We are embarrassed, aren’t we, as we didn’t even try, then? Second, we clearly understand the importance of physical planners and landscape architects, don’t we? I could add a third point – there is a myth that wind farms allow for undisturbed agric production. It look so on the pic, but in fact, today each and every one of the mills must have truck access – and there we have a problem regarding “undisturbed agric”. </span>
</b><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.295; margin-bottom: 8pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-867e-57e9-2da1-5a18fb155c18" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">However, this “renewable future” has an interesting history and it is underpinned in the book – it is so called “high-tech”, a word that makes me worried, indeed. I’m hoping for a retro/appropriate technology and ditto scale. Not a new trough for starving entrepreneurs and corporations! It is obvious that we have to (re)find and (re)discover our renewable future and make changes to our energy use (as well as scaling it down) if we want to give a chance of well living to our children and grandchildren. And consequently a fine picture of what I want (fig 4.5):</span></b><br />
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<img alt="C:\Users\warius-new\Desktop\800px-Windkraftanlage_Laasow[1].jpg" height="400" src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/h1DfC3mbhi5jpTwCCHta14S4yziOAtpmUIEff76EOf3ZMwuVxMI9uoD48-1ee3DK9epwJXkzMu2n4RH6AqfyHQCk6Wq44DxuNlHFs6Lbs-CSRFrZ2XeiRKVtJbgPJtICBKEP-hQdX8ptpwbobA" style="border-image: none; border: medium; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="335" /></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-867f-5127-1ff1-7d8e25e8e603" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Fig 4.5 A German high tower wind turbine of late – high-tech top but locally made tower/nacelle, more appropriate to us, isn’t it?</span></b></td></tr>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 14.66px; font-variant: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b id="docs-internal-guid-8c3ad83e-8680-ea27-b71b-c4370b9752eb" style="font-weight: normal;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: blue; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">janwareus@yahoo.com</span></a></b></span><b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike></div>
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Jan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5120210650085471884.post-10870477035969307182016-09-15T06:22:00.001-07:002016-09-15T06:22:24.641-07:00Our Renewable Future 3<br />
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;">It is
manifest from the book we are examining (<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Our
Renewable Future</b> by Heinberg and Fridley of the Carbon Institute) that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">we have to rely on sun and wind</i> as main
sources for future energy. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;">Reasons are
evident – we have urgently to stop further pollution of our atmosphere with
temperature rising carbon emissions and the fossil based energy is finite and
we have already burnt most of it (resulting in severe climate change). Time is
up, we have missed earlier chances and are facing a last chance, obviously. The
book is scrutinizing this last chance in an analytical way and we have to be
serious despite the many economical, industrial and commercial high levels of
wishful thinking based on a continued 6-8% GDP growth level forever into the
future.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;">But this wont
be easy – that’s mainly the message of the book and we are going on with some
major findings, or rather major conclusions by a great number of scientists and
researchers that is the basis for the authors message. In our opinion, it is
highly interesting and important to the development professionals, architects,
planners, engineers and the like, interested in a changing future, and we will
now continue the presentation:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">An
illustration (and some text) from the book is clearly indicating the change
from fossil to renewable energy and it follows here (it is based on the US
situation in 2012) – and we here are trying following the same development
concept:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Crimson Text"; font-size: 11.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><em>Electricity
constitutes only a portion of the energy the world uses daily. In the United
States, 21 percent of final energy is used as electricity (for the world, the
figure is 18 percent); of the U.S. electricity supply, 38 percent is generated
from coal, 31 percent from natural gas, 19 percent from nuclear power, 7
percent from hydro, and 5 percent from other renewables.</em></span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_ftnref3.1"><u><sup><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Crimson Text"; font-size: 8.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><em>[1]</em></span></sup></u></a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGhqEnQlr8XTV2QjJKOtQE1-h-kP99W93MfeyaPxy0MGtVZLxYgnF2oOgA48kf_Vqt1Gmv2ralB5fZnVpqolbZ6fkY5vwAthC8ft4ruw93HQKRaz_SCAeT8-Ux8jP6x6koTSI7rkA5i-c/s1600/boidis+3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGhqEnQlr8XTV2QjJKOtQE1-h-kP99W93MfeyaPxy0MGtVZLxYgnF2oOgA48kf_Vqt1Gmv2ralB5fZnVpqolbZ6fkY5vwAthC8ft4ruw93HQKRaz_SCAeT8-Ux8jP6x6koTSI7rkA5i-c/s640/boidis+3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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</span><br />
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<b><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Crimson Text"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Figure 3.1. US final energy consumption by fuel type, 2012.</span></i></b><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Crimson Text"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> NGL = natural gas liquids. LPG = liquefied petroleum
gas. Source: International Energy Agency and U.S. Energy Information
Administration. Obs - blue is Natural Gas & NGL<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 18.8pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Crimson Text"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Since most solar and wind energy technologies produce
electricity (as do hydro, geothermal, and some biomass generators), replacement
of fossil fuels by renewable energy sources is happening fastest in the
electricity sector. Further, this means that hopes for accelerating the energy
transition hinge on the electrification of a greater proportion of our total
energy</span> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;">As you
realize, a large section (3/4) of the energy consumption illustrated in the
diagram will and must be changed to renewable energy in the form of
electricity. And this is the bolts and nuts of the interesting chapter 3 of the
book – the headings are: Renewable Electricity, Falling Costs, Variability/Intermittency
and Scaling Challenges. The problems are not avoided and we will highlight a
few of them:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;">Regarding the
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">intermittency character</i> (due to the
sun and wind variability) regarding the production of solar and wind power,
there will be a problem during an establishing period. When the renewable power
is available, the existing grid cannot without severe problems take on an input
of more than 20%. Then the existing grid and production cannot deliver as per
contract. This means that the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">storage
issue </i>will come very early in the transitional process. Consequently, the
redesign of the grid is an imminent problem and an expensive one. But never the
less important – we might say that it is a timing/planning problem. Note – when
we hear that Portugal just had four consecutive days on renewable electricity
and Germany from May 2015 filled almost all its electricity needs on renewables
for a month, it means that they at least have overcome the mentioned problem
but also we must keep in mind that electricity currently represents only 20% of
final energy use.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;">On the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">storage</i> of electrical energy, the
authors are very alert. It is a huge problem that varies a lot with the
geography of the plants for renewable sun and wind electricity. The cheapest
way of storing energy we find in mountainous regions with good sites for dams –
we here can forget this but it is mindboggling. <o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">It is about
pumping water from a low lying dam to a higher lying dam and use the hydropower
concept with water powered turbines to mitigate the intermittence problem – it
is the most efficient storage of power we know so far! What about a country
like ours, then, to get a more permanent input to the grid? <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">For us on the
flats, the most feasible storage concept might be to store compressed air in
underground caverns. A rarely used concept so far but vividly researched as it
is theoretically effective for storage of intermittence energy as above
mentioned hydropower. Energy can also be stored underground as hydrogen but
losses are large, unfortunately. Hydrogen stored in tanks has a very short
“best before” as the small atoms will seep through most tank materials.
However, hydrogen can be very economic for immediate use in industries,
manufacturing and even domestically as well as fuel for light vehicles.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Now to the
storage of energy we are very well used to and used very often by the previous
generation here (and we are returning to more and more often, actually – and
you know why). That’s <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">batteries</i> and a
perfect storage for energy that we all know about – and they are getting better
day by day! Our grandparents used very primitive ones to store energy from wind
pumps with small generators to have a few 12 volt lamps for a short evening
plus listen to “the wireless”. Had the wind/ water/ generator pump been a bit
more effective then, we are sure that the low volt system had still been around
and with individual solar panels on the roofs, the 12 volt system might very
well have a renaissance in the future.</span> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;">
</span></span>
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;">Modern
batteries have a theoretical upper energy density of around 5 megajoules (MJ)
per kilogram but the best batteries of the day are only around 0.5 MJ – but
Tesla is working hard on that. Unfortunately, battery materials are scarce,
already, as well as many materials for cell phones, pads and the like
(including solar panels). Maybe gold is a fine surrogate! <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;">Joking apart,
recycling of what we have might be a right step – it is often totally out here
in Africa and a kind of sustainable business in the old industrial countries.
And by the way, the authors are putting our attention to <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">waste </i>as a “renewable energy” source. Mostly for making heat and we
have already that in amounts but hot water can even propel generators via
steam, our grandfathers say.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;">A re-design
of our conventional power grid will step by step be most essential for the
future. The first priority is to make less energy losses - about 1/3 of energy
is today lost in the grid supplying power and, then another 1/3 is lost on the
user side. And we still have to live with this antique delivery system during
some decades when saving is the major thing. In fact, half of the energy we
produce and use today is essentially “waste”.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The
electricity grid is often described as the largest machine ever created by
human beings – unfortunately invented at times of abundant cheap fossil fuel
and little concern of feasibility and losses as well as impact o the
environment. It is most often centralized and here comes an interesting note
from the authors. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">In the long
run (with possibilities for 100% renewal energy) the energy will most probably
be located in a dispersed pattern and thus, decentralized. That doesn’t mean
that the “large machine” isn’t needed – on the contrary, much needed to connect
all decentralized power farms and in that way becoming more resilient for
unsuitable sun and winds and interchangeable. In fact, we are then storing sun
and wind with…sun and wind! Here we have the question of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">demand management</i>, and this involves changes in the current way of
life, communication, living, culture and more – lifestyles in another word. Not
to mention the trend towards self reliance regarding domestic power via
individual solar panels and batteries in private housing. It’s already clear
that most one family homes are possible to be self sufficient on power and most
large energy farms will be needed for industrial production and heavy
delivering trucks (maybe by hydrogen). Air traffic will contract to a level
that can be based on bio-fuel and some sea transporters are already taking down
speed (from 32 to 24 knots saving 1/3 of fuel) <span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">and, believe it or not,
contemplating the help of sails! There will be changes indeed by time.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;">
</span></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Some
countries</span> are lucky to experience the possibility of tidal and wave generators
although the cost equation and EROEI (Energy Return On Energy Invested) is not
very positive. Not very interesting to a landlocked country but mentioned here
that local/regional solutions are highly important for the future. On this
issue, I remember that in the 80-ies a local architect (Ian Harley Marshall)
designed a few public buildings here that were very energy friendly,
unfortunately not appreciated but the ignorant users – too early, perhaps, but
more of this local design is needed!</span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;">As the
authors are stating that it is sun and wind that are the feasible energy
sources for the future, we seemingly are a bit short of wind if I remember the planning
answer book right. For instance, a colleague that wrote the climate chapter for
a 1981 Development Plan stated: “The prevailing wind is northeast to southwest
– but most days there is no wind at all”. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;">That was long
ago and maybe modern wind turbines are more sensible to low and medium winds
and we have that card to use, too. But I’m in the blue about feasible wind
conditions here – maybe we have to concentrate on solar panels. Seemingly wind
turbines are terrible expensive, about US$16 million each (of which Germany has
about 28,000 in use since many years and now replacing about 1000 a year as the
lifespan for such a one is only 20 years). Renewable energy doesn’t come cheap,
that’s for sure but it is still regarded a better investment over time than
conventional energy plants (that also have an enormous external costs
environmentally).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;">“Our Renewable
Future” is in our opinion very US/EC ethnocentric. Cost is discussed but not as
seriously as we in the developing countries must do, often being forced to take
substantial loans from Bretton Woods institutions with governments as guarantors.
And when we look into the financial facts in today debt market, it’s
frightening. This is the state of it in 2013:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg50c67CC0t6jVZ9wZioaPxwWuBdrlUK34SZ40SK2_IruO_n963z5RRWz4RVkBCg-jspd2frN4_wB2-SElLjt4xsFRZDHDWN1bPiCevTsEib_3Y_RwSmfw4HHyZwlSJL8V63HLDWt0Ft0I/s1600/world1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="482" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg50c67CC0t6jVZ9wZioaPxwWuBdrlUK34SZ40SK2_IruO_n963z5RRWz4RVkBCg-jspd2frN4_wB2-SElLjt4xsFRZDHDWN1bPiCevTsEib_3Y_RwSmfw4HHyZwlSJL8V63HLDWt0Ft0I/s640/world1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;">As can be
seen, world GPD in 2013 was c.60 trill or 1/3 of total debts 180 trill. Today
ab 50 and 200 trill respectively. Debts are mostly oil exploration and countries
with Britton Woods loans (UK is great here). 1/3 of the debts is finance based
(overvalued bonds, hedge funds, derivatives and other artificial wealth related
factors and thus, a bubble about to get bust (again). This time it is not
possible that finance institutions can be bailed out, as we understand. It is a
very dangerous situation for needed renewable energy projects and it is not a
trouble free future for a renewable future when we are in a financial dive and
debt burden globally.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;">We must ask
ourselves if the needed very expensive and probably upfront financed projects
will be implemented in a global financial crash? Fortunately Botswana has a fat
reserve of about P85 billion and not much of loans but the private markets are
more or less counted out due to their heavy loans. It’s an understatement to
say that the thing is volatile.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;">How it goes
with the finances, one thing is evident – the development professions
(architects, planners, engineers, surveyors and realtors) will be the ones
shaping the renewable world and the lifespan of what is created is 50-100
years. Mistakes can easily become serious hurdles for a renewable future which
must be considered and starting <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">now</i>! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;">This
“negativism” as the ignorant (even “green” people) will say is not any
criticism of the book – it clearly indicates a way to our renewable future! The
authors will have the last words:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;">“Cities and suburbs will need to be
redesigned so that all people have good alternatives to private car ownership,
with a focus on mixed use and clustered development. Transportation priorities
will need to shift profoundly, with new road building coming to a halt and
investment shifting to infrastructure for public transit, bicycling and
walking…. </span></i><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;">and…<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> electrified public transit between and
within communities.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>And further on:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;">“…the renewable energy transition will
not consist of a simple process of unplugging coal plants and plugging in solar
panels and wind turbines, it will imply changes in how we live, how much energy
we use, and how we use it. Historic energy transitions (the harnessing of fire,
the advent of agriculture, the fossil fuel revolution) changed societies from
the bottom up and from the inside out. There’s no reason to assume the renewable
energy revolution will be any less transformative.”<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif;">Jan Wareus
28/06/2016</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 5;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span><a href="mailto:janwareu@yahoo.com"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: Calibri;">janwareu@yahoo.com</span></span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>janwareus.blogspot.com<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
Jan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5120210650085471884.post-73384944540906785912016-06-30T12:13:00.001-07:002016-09-15T06:22:51.170-07:00Our Renewable Future 2Let’s start with a mind blocking illustration from the book we are penetrating:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhp70cBQ-cKSlzaG4pFTfrIeQwTbFkxIe4-NYnzoEDLFlb-iyge_dD2hzWuscdJSFadWFjYla_Kwm5VvSo8gslkAcSAz7UGI3IX7tx_hnxS2CcOLUW3f3dCVybVMUZhYNcHC84r9GgbwY/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="319" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhp70cBQ-cKSlzaG4pFTfrIeQwTbFkxIe4-NYnzoEDLFlb-iyge_dD2hzWuscdJSFadWFjYla_Kwm5VvSo8gslkAcSAz7UGI3IX7tx_hnxS2CcOLUW3f3dCVybVMUZhYNcHC84r9GgbwY/s320/1.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Combine harvesters in 1902 and 2014</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
What we will discuss now is not putting horses in front of the modern tractor or the harvester – instead how we will go on with as much as possible of what we have today. The old picture is based on the fact that ¼ of the farmer’s production or fields must be set aside for the horses – and in the food system we have, that is not possible. But we must find other ways of pulling the machinery than fossil fuel!<br />
<br />
And some malicious readers thought the ending picture last column was to indicate that wind power doesn’t work – oh, no! It was only to indicate that we possibly need some thinking about how solar and wind technologies must develop further – maybe away from, expensive and very vulnerable (esp. in a changing climate) modern super high technology. We find in the book such questions about “appropriate technologies”. And, actually, we are not new to wind power, for instance, but formerly it was more local, domestic and simple than today’s high tech.<br />
<br />
To be brief when presenting an important and mind setting new book isn’t easy or not even intelligent. You might loose more supporters than gain some. The authors are very balanced and only trying to open our minds for a necessary switch from fossil to renewable energy. Fossil is finite and soon out – what sustainable substitutes do we have and what levels of sustainability can be reached (and what the costs)? What changes to our infrastructure must be made and what can we afford both environmentally and economically (with receding finances due to climate change and end of cheap energy)?<br />
<br />
So let’s see what the authors have come up with, but unfortunately briefly – the interested reader will have to find the book OR use the internet to find the newly released free on net version.<br />
<br />
The book’s introduction is very interesting and was used by me intensively for the first part of the about 3 planned. It is extensively illustrated by pictures, tables and diagrams, most of them up to latest findings from involved agencies and researchers. Depending on space, I’ll be happy to give some examples now and then. The one below is basic – if we want to know what has happened since 1950/60 when we were somewhat in balance with extraction and use of energy – well, enough to start thinking about what to do if we exceeded limits (and many researchers was warning in books like “Limits for Our Existence” already in 1962). As you see from the diagram, the global tipping point (100 exajoules) was passed about 1960 – we missed that chance and cannot survive missing our last chance, for sure!<br />
<br />
<span lang=""><br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLsfhJnL3udcu02iX5_LpY0O3_IjqtWKO063kpjmd_yWo9GMprXhblKCc5aLD2ga3BtY5ANKP-WDW_betlZXjtHIdaP8b6i-IrGQYomTcvTLAkKB3LuNtHVXHmE_U2CjSOZMdJ-Yt49Qg/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLsfhJnL3udcu02iX5_LpY0O3_IjqtWKO063kpjmd_yWo9GMprXhblKCc5aLD2ga3BtY5ANKP-WDW_betlZXjtHIdaP8b6i-IrGQYomTcvTLAkKB3LuNtHVXHmE_U2CjSOZMdJ-Yt49Qg/s400/1.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure I.3. World primary energy consumption by fuel type, 1850–2014. Primary electricity converted by direct equivalent method.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
The author of the book mentioned above, Prof Georg Borgström, gave us architecture/planning students a lecture in 1963 or 64 and his conclusion never left me – “we have just a few years to decide our future – you better start thinking how buildings and towns should look like for the future”.<br />
<br />
Chapter 1 – Energy 101 starts with a statement: It is impossible to overstate the importance of energy. Without it we can do literally nothing. And further – modern civilization’s energy use (including climate change), together with the inevitable energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables will be the defining trends for this century. <br />
<br />
The chapter is very educational and ought to be among the texts for our younger students as it explain the ”Basics of Basics” of what is energy. I’m sure the Boidus readers know the laws of thermodynamics, net energy and EROEI (Energy Return On Energy Invested), LCA (life cycle analysis) and operational and embodied energy (carbon footprints). Consequently I don’t have to repeat those basics (as I have written about them in earlier Boidus columns) but for the new readers, this chapter is basic.<br />
<br />
Chapter 2 about our current energy system is also very basic for the observant reader and very much a lived experience due to the confidence we have/had for so called “colonial sciences”. But we are given some interesting figures, indeed: the world is presently using about the equivalent of 100 billion barrels of oil a year! <br />
<br />
If that is translated to human muscle energy ( and an average human can generate around 100 watt-hours of energy). Working 8 hours 5 days a week for a year (no holidays), a hard worker would produce 208,000 watt hours (or 208 kilowatt-hours). World annual energy usage thus equals the annual energy output 734.4 billion humans. Then you understand how many “energy muscle slaves” we would need to keep todays standard for the developed, industrial countries. Up to the industrial revolution, we were basically depending on feudal serfs and slaves and we don’t want to go back to those times for some “progress”, do we?<br />
<br />
On Energy Rich – Energy Poor the authors note that some countries use a lot more of energy than people in others. In fact, there is an obvious connection between energy inequality and economic inequality (not a self evident note from US writers, sorry to say). Even in between highly industrialized countries- for instance, Germany enjoy a high standard of living, yet use only a little more than half as much energy (per capita) as citizens of the United States and Canada.(see below):<br />
</span><br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMc17C4XHDQSIDkWbTaHMXR4io2w_t_ppMxV0IWAv13RfQY717VHwIAVT8NpOQGTfLJleBEvnxUmh63x9iy7JQpzIeDVTjGNE2voCZKDc6yBM0UaxX3-hWCZMEIdueifqfhg6tj4AJKxo/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="475" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMc17C4XHDQSIDkWbTaHMXR4io2w_t_ppMxV0IWAv13RfQY717VHwIAVT8NpOQGTfLJleBEvnxUmh63x9iy7JQpzIeDVTjGNE2voCZKDc6yBM0UaxX3-hWCZMEIdueifqfhg6tj4AJKxo/s640/1.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 2.3. Per capita gross domestic product and energy consumption of various countries, 2012. <br />
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Well, in short, the end of the fossil fuel era does not simply imply the era of energy inequality! To make it more serious, the middle to poor income countries will have a huge problem in raising finance for the evident need for renewable energy. We have to read further in the book we have for another part 3, planned for the August issue of Boidus Focus.<br />
<br />
Now we are going to Sweden for the marriage of my child boy, now 30 years old! What kind of future will he and his family have? A fossil fuel empty world or a renewable energy world, I’m worried.<br />
<br />
<br />
Jan Wareus 28/06/2016<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Jan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5120210650085471884.post-33102788128464771412016-06-30T11:42:00.001-07:002016-06-30T12:16:22.888-07:00Our Renewable Future<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0S4UfjfB-H8OFWrKGxB8Od8Eip19SaoSax_YYuBltD6ilYFO7bNsX9FdZRUhOfMqif8sU4cePfid8qYJjsAZzMtQ-SiXfBUYrkna6Yps6MNodDCdSLp9CcOjwVUZ1DTgLNtm2W7ec3Cc/s1600/pic1papa.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0S4UfjfB-H8OFWrKGxB8Od8Eip19SaoSax_YYuBltD6ilYFO7bNsX9FdZRUhOfMqif8sU4cePfid8qYJjsAZzMtQ-SiXfBUYrkna6Yps6MNodDCdSLp9CcOjwVUZ1DTgLNtm2W7ec3Cc/s400/pic1papa.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
This picture from a modern solar farm is borrowed from a very interesting new book:<br />
“Our Renewable Future” by Richard Heinberg and David Fridley, Fellows of the Post<br />
Carbon Institute in the US.<br />
<br />
I find the book so important that I like to share some of its narrative with the<br />
development professionals and readers of Boidus – very condensed and abridged, of<br />
course, but hopefully enlightening for its readers.<br />
<br />
Ugo Bardi, professor at the University of Florence in Italy and vividly writing and<br />
blogging about resource depletion, system modeling, climate science and renewable<br />
energy writes about this book:<br />
<br />
“The future of renewable energy is obscured by ignorance, noise, ideology, and all<br />
sorts of misconceptions. Our Renewable Future describes the reality: the transition is<br />
possible, but it wont be easy.”<br />
<br />
According to the authors they have been ‘tiptoeing’ through the renewable minefield<br />
and consequently they are presenting the mainstream (boosters) as well as dissident<br />
views (critics) on the renewable energy complex that we must handle when heading<br />
to a renewable future, whether we are ready or not. Depending on how quickly and<br />
intelligently we move the transition along, daily life could improve or deteriorate<br />
significantly, but will never be the same, we understand from the authors analysis.<br />
Energy is embedded in so many aspects of modern life and we need serious<br />
discussions about the future of economy, consumerism and economic justice and<br />
equity. And new skills and concepts are needed for the development professionals<br />
and physical planners re. buildings, construction, infrastructure, urban design and<br />
communication. It is also important to revise, change and transform contemporary<br />
technologies and its problematic footprint in the developed world - a tremendous task<br />
to reach a sustainable post-modern future. It must be remembered that all we in the<br />
industrialized world have built so far is to suit the characteristics of fossil fuel and a<br />
change of mind is needed!<br />
<br />
Apart from these general basics, we have to make the transition away from fossil<br />
fuels that are soon depleted and on the way out (and nuclear power is not a realistic<br />
substitute) and successfully re-think and re-tool how we use energy – and how much<br />
we use – not just its source. When bio-fuel is basically out (except for aviation and a<br />
few farmers with suitable waste) - you remember the report that stated the simple<br />
fact that even if every tilled field on earth is producing bio-fuel instead of food, it will<br />
only be enough for our present communications and fracking also soon out as hyped<br />
up way of “scraping the drums” (as oil professionals say – and delusions about Saudi<br />
America), leaves renewable solar and wind, for better or for worse, as society’s<br />
future energy sources. The inevitable transition of technologies and the fact that<br />
renewable energy will not possibly meet future ‘eternal growth’ but possibly a<br />
restricted but decent standard level of what we now have, will also force us to live<br />
differently – more sustainable and in accordance with the resources he have and can<br />
recycle for the future.<br />
<br />
As I see it, a transition to a renewable future is necessary for the existence of<br />
humans and most life on earth. We are already experiencing the climate change with<br />
all its consequences, created by the blindfolded industrial society and already many<br />
limits are reached or are very soon reached – so called tipping points for continued<br />
safe life on earth. Unprecedented hurricanes, flooding and droughts are everyday<br />
happening where it shouldn’t happen, distress, calamity, hunger and death are<br />
everyday news and all created by burning of fossil fuel. We have a responsibility to<br />
arrest as much of this as possible. At least not enhance the problems we have<br />
created. But this is not an easy task as the decisions are political and unfortunately,<br />
the debate is already quite polarized and politicized. As a result, realism and nuance<br />
may not have much of a constituency. I guess it’s time for emergency committees<br />
and political crisis coalitions instead of the usual party overbids on eternal growth<br />
and progress.<br />
<br />
However, everything is not well in the renewable energy field – the majority of the<br />
solar and wind supporters are delusive albeit they disdain fossils and nukes and are<br />
convinced that solar and wind have unstoppable momentum and will eventually bring<br />
with them lower energy prices and millions of jobs, contrary of those who say that<br />
intermittent energy sources are inherently incapable of sustaining modern industrial<br />
societies and can be build only with massive government subsidies as being “not<br />
bankable” any longer.<br />
<br />
Despite the conclusions stated above, the authors didn’t set out to support or<br />
undermine these two messages. Instead they made a thorough account and analysis<br />
of what renewable energy sources are capable of doing and how a transition toward<br />
them is going – there were only two basic assumptions. Fossil fuels are soon history<br />
and nuclear power unrealistic in the long run.<br />
<br />
It is interesting to examine the large scale use of solar and wind power as basis for<br />
industry and national power grids. I will in coming columns highlight some disturbing<br />
facts among many positive developments that I happened to find on various sites like<br />
e.g. Resilience, Post Carbon Institute and many personal blogs by dissident energy<br />
experts.<br />
<br />
It is positive that that a few countries have taken the first steps on the “renewal<br />
road”. We will have a quick look in coming columns and now I like to conclude this<br />
text with some basic points from Our Renewable Future book we are dealing with:<br />
<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li> We have developed much during the industrial period and most was undertaken</li>
</ul>
with the tacit assumption that societies always have more fossil energy with which<br />
to maintain and operate its ever expanding infrastructure – without any long-<br />
range planning guiding. The fossil-fueling of the economy happened bit by bit,<br />
each new element building on the last, with opportunity leading to innovation.<br />
What was technically possible became economically necessary…and hence<br />
normal;<br />
<ul>
<li> There is a problem with the mindset with most of modern (voting) man – the ignorance of the realities of changing conditions for the future. Solar, wind, hydro and geothermal generators produce electricity, and we already have an abundance of technologies that rely on electricity. So why should we need to change the ways we use energy? Presumably all that’s necessary is to unplug coal power plants, plug in solar panels and wind turbines and continue living as we do currently, they seem to think;</li>
<li> But the next few decades are forced to to see a profound and all-encompassing energy transformation throughout the world. Whereas society now derives the great majority of its energy from fossil fuels, by the end of the century we will depend primarily on renewable sources like solar, wind, biomass and geotechnical power.</li>
<li> How would a 100% renewable world look and feel? How might a future generation move through a typical day without using fossil fuels either directly or indirectly? Where will the food come from? How will they move from place to place? What will the buildings they inhabit look like, and how will those buildings function? Visions of the future are always wrong in detail and often even in broad strokes; but sometimes they can be wrong in useful ways. Development professionals, architects and planners must start thinking about this to avoid too many mistakes done now that will constitute hindrances for a well functioning renewable future! </li>
</ul>
<div>
Our renewable future will have many problems and a few energy projects are already after some years indicating massive over-cost implications, doubtful environmental consequences and failures not predicted after just a few years of testing. We have to deal with these as well as the positive experiences in the next column.</div>
<br />
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After 19 years of facing the wind, this German turbine fell to it. It’s starting to happen a lot. It is estimated that more than 1000 turbines of the existing 25000 must be decommissioned every year at an enormous cost due to aging. </div>
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Jan Wareus 16/06/2016<br />
janwareu@yahoo.comJan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5120210650085471884.post-45883622246416262072015-04-12T12:53:00.001-07:002015-04-12T12:54:20.071-07:00On Alchemy, Economics and Infrastructure<div class="qowt-stl-NoSpacing" id="E27" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E27" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.2; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0pt;">
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span class="qowt-font2-TimesNewRoman" id="E49" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E49" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Tinos, 'Baskerville Old Face', 'Bell MT', serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">Oil times are changing, and not in a good way. (Photo by </span><span class="qowt-font2-TimesNewRoman" id="E51" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E51" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Tinos, 'Baskerville Old Face', 'Bell MT', serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">AZRainman</span><span class="qowt-font2-TimesNewRoman" id="E53" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E53" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Tinos, 'Baskerville Old Face', 'Bell MT', serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">/</span><span class="qowt-font2-TimesNewRoman" id="E55" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E55" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Tinos, 'Baskerville Old Face', 'Bell MT', serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">Flickr</span><span class="qowt-font2-TimesNewRoman" id="E57" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E57" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Tinos, 'Baskerville Old Face', 'Bell MT', serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">)</span></td></tr>
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<div id="E59" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E59" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E60" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E60" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">This photo is </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E61" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E61" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">a </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E62" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E62" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">very dramatic metaphor of what might happen when we run out of oil. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E63" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E63" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">Of course, it’s </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E65" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E65" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">a</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E67" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E67" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> exaggerat</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E68" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E68" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">ion. We might not need many oil-</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E69" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E69" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">ta</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E70" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E70" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">n</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E71" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E71" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">kers but we will certainly not be back to the Silky Road with camel caravans. And unnecessary tankers will be broken up and recycled. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E72" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E72" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">(Recyc</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E73" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E73" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">ling will be an important i</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E74" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E74" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">ssue for the future, I’m sure</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E75" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E75" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">!)</span></div>
<div id="E76" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E76" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E77" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E77" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">The danger with this kind of metaphors</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E78" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E78" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> is the life or death situation </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E79" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E79" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">that it illustrates</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E80" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E80" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">. It’s</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E81" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E81" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E82" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E82" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">no coincidence that it i</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E83" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E83" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">s from an US-</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E84" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E84" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">based blogger. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E85" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E85" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">Over there, b</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E86" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E86" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">el</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E87" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E87" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">i</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E88" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E88" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">e</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E89" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E89" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">vers and deniers </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E90" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E90" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">of</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E91" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E91" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> the energy crisis more or less agree that </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E92" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E92" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">it’s now life or death at stake – believers praying for a </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E93" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E93" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">G</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E94" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E94" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">reen future and deniers taking the Rambo Road.</span></div>
<div id="E95" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E95" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E96" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E96" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">So </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E98" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E98" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">there’s</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E100" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E100" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> two extremes against each other –</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E101" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E101" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> not an unusual American situation, we’ve seen, but we have to find our own way</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E102" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E102" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> kind of middle way</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E103" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E103" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E104" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E104" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">to the future –</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E105" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E105" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E106" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E106" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">my </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E107" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E107" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">essay for to</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E108" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E108" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">day:</span></div>
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<div id="E110" is="qowt-para" named-flow="FLOW-3" qowt-eid="E110" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E111" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E111" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Modern economists are now</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E113" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E113" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> at risk of</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E114" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E114" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> sharing our </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E115" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E115" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">silly</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E116" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E116" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> jokes about </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E117" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E117" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">lawyers</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E118" is="qowt-run" named-flow="FLOW-4" qowt-eid="E118" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. </span></div>
<div is="qowt-para" named-flow="FLOW-3" qowt-eid="E110" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" is="qowt-run" named-flow="FLOW-4" qowt-eid="E118" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Serious writers are referring to them as “so called economists” </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E119" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E119" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">in our even pape</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E120" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E120" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">rs (Roman </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E122" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E122" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Grynberg</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E124" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E124" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> – thank you)</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E125" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E125" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. And they only have to blame themselve</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E126" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E126" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">s taking the Reagan-Thatcher road</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E127" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E127" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> some decades back. Becoming some kind of mo</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E128" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E128" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">dern alchemists making wealth of</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E129" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E129" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> junk bonds,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E130" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E130" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> sub-prime loans etc. (very much posh cars, here – visitors are amazed)</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E131" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E131" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> recommending overseas </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E132" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E132" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">investme</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E133" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E133" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">nt rather than investing profits </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E134" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E134" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">in the </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E135" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E135" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">mother country (and forcing </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E136" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E136" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">government</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E137" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E137" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">s</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E138" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E138" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> to look for alien investors). </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E139" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E139" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">I</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E140" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E140" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">t is a sad story </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E141" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E141" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">– nothing but medieval kind of a</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E142" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E142" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">lchemy! </span></div>
<div id="E143" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E143" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E144" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E144" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">As we know, alchemy was the game of making gold out of other metals and stuff in times not too distant to our industrial epoch. Medieval wizards often died of unforeseen “external</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E145" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E145" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">i</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E146" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E146" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">ties” as lead fumes and sudden bursts of retorts. Very similar to the bursting ‘bubbles’ we now and then have</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E147" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E147" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E148" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E148" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E149" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E149" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">apart from seldom causing physical harm to the banking CEO’s</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E150" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E150" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E151" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E151" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">But the suicides among </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E152" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E152" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">them </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E153" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E153" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">are </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E154" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E154" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">on the rise</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E155" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E155" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">, we hear!</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E156" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E156" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></div>
<div id="E157" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E157" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E158" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E158" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">However, there are clever economists and, not surprisingly, of an older school of economy. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E159" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E159" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">The most influential was </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E161" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E161" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">J</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E162" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E162" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">ohn </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E163" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E163" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> M</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E164" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E164" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">aynard</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E166" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E166" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Keynes</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E167" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E167" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> of the Bloomsbury Soci</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E168" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E168" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">e</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E169" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E169" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ty. He already in the early 1920-ies realized what the outrageous conditions for Germany </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E170" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E170" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">(</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E171" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E171" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">after WW1</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E172" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E172" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">treaty)</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E173" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E173" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> wo</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E174" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E174" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">uld create. Something similar</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E175" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E175" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> what the West </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E176" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E176" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">today is imposing to Libya, Iraq</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E177" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E177" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">, Iran, Syria and, why not, Russia. And his general ideas about how to keep a working class </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E178" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E178" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">in production with decent earnings </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E179" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E179" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">(to secure </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E180" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E180" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">sales</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E181" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E181" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">) was widely accepted by so called “welfare” countries – and obviously an inspiration to Sir </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E183" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E183" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Ser</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E184" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E184" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">e</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E185" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E185" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">tse</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E187" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E187" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E189" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E189" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Khama</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E191" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E191" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E192" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E192" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></div>
<div id="E193" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E193" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E194" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E194" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Neo-liberalism </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E195" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E195" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">(dogma mostly from the Chicago School of Economics and seconded by a Nobel Prize to Milton Freedman) </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E196" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E196" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">stopped that with the help of Reagan </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E197" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E197" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">and Thatcher -</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E198" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E198" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> we got “</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E200" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E200" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">reaganomics</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E202" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E202" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">”, instead - </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E203" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E203" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">free trade, </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E204" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E204" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">free markets, </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E205" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E205" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">no economic/custom hindrances,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E206" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E206" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> restrictions on government spending and so called </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E207" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E207" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">economic </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E208" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E208" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">globalization</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E209" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E209" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E210" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E210" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E211" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E211" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Remarka</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E212" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E212" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">bly,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E213" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E213" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> globalization had</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E214" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E214" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> been tried by many former empires and never worked</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E215" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E215" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">! But we know that economists</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E216" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E216" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E217" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E217" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">of today </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E218" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E218" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">are</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E219" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E219" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">/</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E220" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E220" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">were</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E221" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E221" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> not interested in history, for sure!</span></div>
<div id="E222" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E222" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E223" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E223" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">(</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E224" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E224" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">Well, </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E225" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E225" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">I</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E226" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E226" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> added “were” above as </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E227" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E227" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">we</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E228" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E228" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> know from Prof. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E230" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E230" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">Grynberg</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E231" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E231" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">’</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E232" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E232" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">s</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E234" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E234" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> recent article that ther</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E235" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E235" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">e </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E236" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E236" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">is </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E237" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E237" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">a kind of rethinking among IMF and World Bank economists today.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E238" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E238" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E240" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E240" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">An interesting development, indeed!</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E241" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E241" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">)</span></div>
<div id="E243" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E243" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E244" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E244" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">There is high anxiety in the world, ponder</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E245" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E245" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ing</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E246" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E246" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> about </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E247" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E247" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">externalities</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E248" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E248" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">, and time to get the economic balance books in </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E249" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E249" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">proper Italian double </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E250" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E250" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">order. Important here is to try and see what must happen when extrapolating a modest 3</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E251" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E251" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">-4</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E252" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E252" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">% rate of industrial growth for the distant future. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E253" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E253" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Let’s go…</span></div>
<div id="E254" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E254" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E255" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E255" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">After 4 centuries, the economy </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E256" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E256" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">will </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E257" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E257" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ha</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E258" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E258" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ve</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E259" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E259" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> grown </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E260" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E260" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">by a fact</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E261" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E261" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">or of 136,424 and consequently </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E263" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E263" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">a </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E264" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E264" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> hundred</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E266" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E266" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> thousand times as much energy will have to be generated as for today. The impossibility of endless growth is even </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E268" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E268" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">more clear</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E270" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E270" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> if it should go on for 8 centuries – the growth factor is then 186 million at a modest 3% growth a year! </span></div>
<div id="E271" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E271" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E272" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E272" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">I’m here quoting from a recent article “by Prof. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E273" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E273" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">John Scales Avery</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E274" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E274" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">’s (former advisor to WHO and once leader of the </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E276" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E276" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">Pugwash</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E278" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E278" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Group that received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1995) and will cont</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E279" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E279" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">inue some more quoting from him.</span></div>
<div id="E280" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E280" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E281" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E281" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">When heaping insults on</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E282" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E282" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> modern “so called economis</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E283" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E283" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ts”, we</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E284" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E284" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> also ha</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E285" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E285" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ve to mention a few</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E286" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E286" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> exceptions. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E287" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E287" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Prof. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E288" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E288" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Avery</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E289" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E289" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">’s </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E290" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E290" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">is pointing out </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E292" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E292" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Frederik</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E294" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E294" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Soddy, Nicholas </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E296" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E296" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Georgiescu-Roegan</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E299" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E299" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">, Herman E Daly, Aurel</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E300" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E300" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">i</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E301" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E301" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">o </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E303" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E303" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Pecci</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E305" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E305" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E307" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E307" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Thorkil</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E309" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E309" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E311" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E311" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Kristensen</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E313" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E313" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E314" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E314" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">My own </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E316" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E316" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">favourite</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E318" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E318" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> is Keynes, who put the few ‘welfare states</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E319" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E319" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">’ in order.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E320" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E320" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></div>
<div id="E321" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E321" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E322" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E322" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E323" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E323" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">“</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E325" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E325" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">Frederik</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E327" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E327" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Soddy</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E328" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E328" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and Nicholas </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E330" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E330" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">Georgiesco-Roegan</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E332" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E332" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E333" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E333" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">introduced the concept of </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E334" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E334" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">entropy</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E335" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E335" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> into economics. They visualized economy as the digestive system of society. It “eats” resources</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E336" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E336" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and derives from them the strength to drive the machinery of society. Later, it excretes the resources in a degraded form. Obviously this is </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E337" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E337" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">not</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E338" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E338" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> a circular process, since the degraded resources simply cannot be “eaten” again. For example, fossil fuels, once burned, cannot be burned again. Since only cyclic processes are sustainable, only renewable processes energy is sustainable. Furthermore, cyclic processes can use only materials that are renewable, like natural fibers. Today those ideas are very ably a</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E339" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E339" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">dvocated by </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E341" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E341" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">Georgiescu-Roegans</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E343" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E343" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">’</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E344" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E344" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> student Prof</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E345" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E345" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E346" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E346" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Herman E Daly.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E347" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E347" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> (</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E348" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E348" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">See his Steady State writings on The Daly News site</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E349" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E349" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">/JW).</span></div>
<div id="E350" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E350" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E351" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E351" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">Furthermore, the Club of Rome was founded by Aurelio </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E353" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E353" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">Pecci</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E355" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E355" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E357" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E357" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">Thorkil</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E359" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E359" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Kristiansen and a few more farsighted economics. A club/organization of a group of world citizens, sharing </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E360" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E360" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">a common </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E362" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E362" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">concern </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E363" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E363" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E364" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E364" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">for</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E366" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E366" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> humanity. A study of future availability of resources was commissioned and published in 1972 under the title “Limits of Growth</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E367" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E367" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">”, </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E368" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E368" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">It predicted that that many resources, such as metals and fossil fuels, will be exhausted by middle 21</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E369" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E369" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; line-height: 0; vertical-align: super; white-space: pre-wrap; zoom: 0.75;">st</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E370" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E370" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> century, that pollution will increase markedly, and that industrial production </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E371" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E371" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">and population will begin to decline. The book was greeted with anger and disbelief by the community of economists and these emotions surface today whenever it is mentioned. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E372" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E372" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">“</span></div>
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<div id="E374" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E374" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E375" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E375" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">The late 60-ies and early 70-ies had a lot of careful, cautious and intelligent economists, probably as they </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E376" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E376" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">early </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E377" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E377" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">had been part of western countries industrial development</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E378" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E378" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and experienced a few economic bursts</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E379" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E379" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. They saw the risks with what</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E380" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E380" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> we now call “externalitie</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E381" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E381" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">s” and became what we now call </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E382" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E382" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">“</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E383" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E383" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">whistle-blowers</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E384" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E384" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">”</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E385" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E385" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. They were political economists, food researchers or agriculturalists, </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E387" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E387" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">geologists,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E389" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E389" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> physiologists</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E390" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E390" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">……</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E391" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E391" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">…</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E392" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E392" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> fill in the blanks! They certainly warned about ongoing predatory exploitation of finite resources – </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E393" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E393" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">be it oil, gas, coal, water, unsustainable lifestyles</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E394" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E394" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> as well as uncontrolled air and water pollution. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E395" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E395" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">But the new, modern </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E396" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E396" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">so called</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E397" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E397" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> economists</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E398" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E398" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> didn’t listen and,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E399" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E399" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> worse, not elected leaders</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E400" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E400" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> (with Finance Minist</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E401" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E401" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">r</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E402" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E402" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ies filled up with </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E403" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E403" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">gratis</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E404" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E404" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Chicago Boys</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E405" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E405" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">)</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E406" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E406" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">, either.</span></div>
<div id="E407" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E407" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E408" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E408" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">During my last university year in 1965, we students of architecture (town planning was a voluntary sideline</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E409" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E409" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">, then</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E410" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E410" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">) were recommended by our history professor to read “Limits for our Existence” by Georg </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E412" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E412" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Borgstr</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E413" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E413" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ö</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E414" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E414" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">m</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E416" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E416" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">, later professor at Michigan State University.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E417" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E417" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E418" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E418" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">We read his book (years before Club of Rome</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E419" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E419" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">, actually</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E420" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E420" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">) an</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E421" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E421" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">d listened to his lectures but </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E422" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E422" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">already then it was too late</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E423" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E423" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> for us ’modern’ students</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E424" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E424" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. The </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E425" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E425" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">“eternal progress </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E426" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E426" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">train</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E427" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E427" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">”</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E428" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E428" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> h</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E429" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E429" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ad started and to earn money we had</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E430" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E430" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> be on</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E431" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E431" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> to </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E432" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E432" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">be on the train</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E433" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E433" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">, sad to say.</span></div>
<div id="E434" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E434" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E435" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E435" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Consequently, I cannot but understand the situation that most developing countries are in today. There was hardly any coherent alternative </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E436" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E436" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">to the massive neo-liberal economic concept from western development institutions and charitable donors for newly independent developing countries then. The “hidden” conditions were just as </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E437" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E437" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">important as the job was for </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E438" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E438" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">new </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E439" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E439" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">architects and town planners</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E440" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E440" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">.</span></div>
<div id="E441" is="qowt-para" named-flow="FLOW-7" qowt-eid="E441" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E442" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E442" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">But there were serious consequences when </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E443" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E443" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">the developing countries applied this kind of outdated</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E444" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E444" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">, high cost, </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E445" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E445" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">western</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E446" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E446" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">, somewhat outdated</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E447" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E447" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> technology</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E448" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E448" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E449" is="qowt-run" named-flow="FLOW-8" qowt-eid="E449" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">(an </span></div>
<div is="qowt-para" named-flow="FLOW-7" qowt-eid="E441" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" is="qowt-run" named-flow="FLOW-8" qowt-eid="E449" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">inheritance from the colonial powers, I insist) </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E450" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E450" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">– mostly concerning infrastructure </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E451" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E451" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">and </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E453" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E453" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">utility </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E454" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E454" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">service</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E455" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E455" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> that we more or less copied from the west. Obviously not considering the problems </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E456" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E456" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">developed countries had with</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E457" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E457" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> aging infrastructur</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E458" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E458" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">e networks and service delivery and the end cost for it</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E459" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E459" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> when energy became e</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E460" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E460" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">x</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E461" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E461" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">pensive</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E462" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E462" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">.</span></div>
<div id="E463" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E463" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E464" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E464" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">By the late 60-ies it was obvious that the infrastructure sector was falling apart in the west – maintenance was neglected and cost</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E465" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E465" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> of delivery escalated quickly - </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E466" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E466" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">esp. after the first oil bubble burst in early 70-ies. There were huge external costs never assumed</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E467" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E467" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">, </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E468" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E468" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">and environmentalist</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E469" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E469" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">s started their whistle-</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E470" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E470" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">blowing</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E471" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E471" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. For </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E472" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E472" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">some economists </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E473" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E473" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">things were written on the wall – for example E F Schumacher</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E474" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E474" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> (with his famous book “Less is Beautiful”) advised that developing countries mu</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E475" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E475" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">st find </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E476" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E476" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">‘</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E477" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E477" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">appropriate technology</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E478" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E478" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> approach</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E479" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E479" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and localize</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E480" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E480" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">d</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E481" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E481" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> production an</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E482" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E482" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">d delivery of service. But the </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E483" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E483" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">‘</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E484" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E484" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">appropri</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E485" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E485" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ate’</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E486" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E486" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> development authorities</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E487" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E487" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> were handcuffed by its former colonial masters. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E488" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E488" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">And</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E489" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E489" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> the western infrastructure warehouses</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E490" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E490" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> were full of stuff to send to new “independent” countries often almost </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E491" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E491" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">gratis</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E492" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E492" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E493" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E493" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E494" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E494" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">The producing of outdated, conventional stuff</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E495" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E495" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E496" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E496" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">could go on and supporting the workers at home. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E498" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E498" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">in</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E500" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E500" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> full swing</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E501" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E501" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. And developing co</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E502" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E502" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">untries were ever so grateful until they had to pay the full price. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E503" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E503" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">I know this game – when I was young, the welfare people got water and power almost </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E504" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E504" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">gratis</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E505" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E505" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">, </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E507" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E507" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">esp</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E509" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E509" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. pensioners like my grandmother (even a flushing toilet). But 25-30 years later, the situation changed and people started to pay real costs – possible in countries of full employment and alert unions.</span></div>
<div id="E510" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E510" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E511" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E511" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Thus</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E512" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E512" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E513" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E513" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> we have outdated (and not appropriate) infrastructure and service delivery systems in Africa and elsewhere among developing countries</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E514" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E514" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> - </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E515" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E515" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">more than century old infrastructure models from dense</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E516" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E516" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ly </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E517" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E517" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">populated European countries even in spar</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E518" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E518" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">sely populated areas in Africa.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E519" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E519" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></div>
<div id="E520" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E520" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E521" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E521" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">When I arrived to Gaborone in early 1979, Gaborone had its own electricity plant. And there is</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E522" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E522" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> no economy flight for 300</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E523" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E523" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">MV f</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E524" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E524" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">rom </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E526" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E526" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Morupule</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E528" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E528" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> t</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E529" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E529" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">o Gaborone. The delivery system </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E530" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E530" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">lo</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E531" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E531" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">s</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E532" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E532" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">t</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E533" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E533" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E534" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E534" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">1/3 of its energy on the way </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E535" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E535" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">here </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E536" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E536" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">and another 1/3</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E537" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E537" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> was</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E538" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E538" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> lost in imperfect western wi</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E539" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E539" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ring</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E540" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E540" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E541" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E541" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">in the consumer’s home.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E542" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E542" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E543" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E543" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">And now we must pay for it!</span></div>
<div id="E544" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E544" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E545" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E545" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">We </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E546" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E546" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">also </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E547" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E547" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">discover </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E548" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E548" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">that there is</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E549" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E549" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> no quality in delivered coal burners </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E550" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E550" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">for </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E552" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E552" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Morupule</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E554" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E554" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> B </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E555" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E555" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">– actually we didn’t know that our low quality coal was never meant to be used in modern steamers</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E556" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E556" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> (according to many</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E557" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E557" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> engineers)</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E558" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E558" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. Most of </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E560" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E560" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Chobe</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E562" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E562" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> River will be </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E563" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E563" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">needed to clean and upgrade the</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E564" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E564" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> coal we now </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E565" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E565" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">have to </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E566" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E566" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">produce</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E567" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E567" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> to</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E568" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E568" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> export</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E569" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E569" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> quality. And most of the world is moving away from burning coal as </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E571" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E571" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">externalties</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E573" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E573" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> are too expensive.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E574" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E574" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E575" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E575" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E576" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E576" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">It’s a sad story of jumping</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E577" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E577" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> onto the wrong train, indeed.</span></div>
<div id="E578" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E578" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt 0px 0px; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E579" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E579" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">When we experience power and water on/off and blocked sewers, we mustn’t put all the blame on our utilities and its staff.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E580" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E580" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> The technology was wrong for a start</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E581" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E581" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and not appropriate – leading me to realize that the physical planning was also </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E582" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E582" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">very </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E583" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E583" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">wrong. But</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E584" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E584" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> on this I</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E585" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E585" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> remember that Gaborone was never meant to be more than for 25-30,000 people</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E586" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E586" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E587" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E587" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E588" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E588" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">And then more “</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E590" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E590" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">gaborones</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E592" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E592" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">” needed </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E593" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E593" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">to be built </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E594" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E594" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">and connected with communication. To me, that had been appropriate planning!</span></div>
<div id="E595" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E595" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E596" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E596" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">In short – we jumped </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E597" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E597" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">onto </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E598" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E598" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">the wrong train a few stops from the end station. There is an immense task for planners and utilities in the close future. But moving to </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E600" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E600" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Palapye</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E602" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E602" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> on the same conditions we have</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E603" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E603" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> now</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E604" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E604" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> is </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E605" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E605" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">not</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E606" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E606" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> a solution</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E607" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E607" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. That’s an ostrich reaction. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E608" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E608" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E609" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E609" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">De-industrialization is ongoing and </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E610" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E610" style="color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">we have an important discussion ahead!</span></div>
<div id="E595" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E595" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: normal; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 3.75pt; padding: 3.75pt 0px;">
- JW <br />
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E37" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E37" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">March 20, </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E38" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E38" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">2015</span></div>
Jan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5120210650085471884.post-82436943494271541932015-04-12T12:38:00.004-07:002015-04-12T12:38:39.439-07:00On Architecture, Urban Design and Town Planning in a Changing World <div id="E16" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E16" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E19" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E19" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E30" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E30" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">April </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E33" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E33" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">4</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E34" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E34" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">, </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E35" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E35" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">2015</span></div>
<div id="E37" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E37" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E38" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E38" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">I’ve been away </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E39" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E39" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">from the pages of </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E41" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E41" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Boidus</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E43" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E43" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Focus for some time, nursing what doctors call COAD (chronic obstructive </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E44" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E44" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">air-ways</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E45" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E45" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> decease –</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E46" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E46" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E47" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E47" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">similar to silicosis</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E48" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E48" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E50" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E50" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">dyspnoea</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E52" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E52" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">). I’ve come to realize that I’m a living metaphor for the global COED (chronic obstructive </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E53" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E53" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">economic </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E54" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E54" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">decease)</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E55" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E55" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. COAD is possible to live with if diagnosed early and the same goes for COED. But a change of living conditions is important and necessary</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E56" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E56" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">, hence</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E57" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E57" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> the </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E58" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E58" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">topic </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E59" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E59" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">for this essay.</span></div>
<div id="E60" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E60" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E61" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E61" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Let’s </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E62" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E62" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">us </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E63" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E63" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">start with some </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E64" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E64" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">mutual </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E65" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E65" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">self criticism –</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E66" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E66" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E67" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E67" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">the economic basis for ever ongoing economical growth in the worl</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E68" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E68" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">d is running out of air, or oil</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E69" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E69" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> rath</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E70" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E70" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">er. The basis for ever-growing</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E71" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E71" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> industri</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E72" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E72" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">alization is over. There’s only</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E73" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E73" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E74" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E74" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">very expensive and </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E75" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E75" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">hard-to-</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E76" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E76" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">get stuff left</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E77" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E77" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. OK, we can </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E78" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E78" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">still </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E79" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E79" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">get </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E80" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E80" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">some of </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E81" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E81" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">it but it leaves our children with almost nothing. Thus, a change must come, </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E82" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E82" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">the sooner the better</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E83" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E83" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E84" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E84" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">(</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E85" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E85" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">The sudden low price for oil is temporary and mo</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E86" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E86" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">re of a competition and no</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E87" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E87" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> basis for </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E88" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E88" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">continued</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E89" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E89" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">, endless</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E90" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E90" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E91" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E91" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">growth</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E92" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E92" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E93" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E93" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">)</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E94" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E94" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></div>
<div id="E95" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E95" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E96" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E96" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">We, </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E97" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E97" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">in the development professions</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E98" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E98" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> should</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E99" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E99" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E100" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E100" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">know that</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E101" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E101" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E102" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E102" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E103" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E103" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">start preparing</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E104" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E104" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> for</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E105" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E105" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> a </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E106" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E106" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">sustainable future</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E107" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E107" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. For instance, we know that we will not be able to pay for long transports of food and buildi</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E108" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E108" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ng materials. We </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E109" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E109" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">must</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E110" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E110" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> localize</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E111" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E111" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E112" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E112" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">needed production </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E113" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E113" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">as fast as possible and try a more steady </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E114" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E114" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">and robust </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E115" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E115" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">economical conce</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E116" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E116" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">pt, base</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E117" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E117" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">d on our own resources and </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E119" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E119" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">labou</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E120" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E120" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">r</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E122" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E122" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E123" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E123" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Developed countries are today “post-industrial” </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E124" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E124" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">(while we </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E125" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E125" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">in Africa </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E126" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E126" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">are hardly</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E127" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E127" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> even “pre</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E128" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E128" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">-</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E129" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E129" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">industrial</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E130" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E130" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">”</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E131" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E131" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">)</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E132" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E132" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E133" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E133" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">they are </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E134" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E134" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">busy discussing de-</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E135" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E135" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">industrialization. There is no basis</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E136" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E136" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> to mimic </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E137" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E137" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">their developments </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E138" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E138" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">and no party to join any longer.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E139" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E139" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E140" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E140" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">‘</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E141" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E141" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">The </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E143" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E143" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Party’s </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E144" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E144" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E145" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E145" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Over</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E146" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E146" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">’</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E148" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E148" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">, as Frank Sinatra used to sing, once upon a time.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E149" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E149" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E150" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E150" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">What to do, then? </span></div>
<div id="E151" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E151" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E152" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E152" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Well, warnings have been around for long, decades and</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E153" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E153" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> even a century as we will see </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E154" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E154" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">(but ignored</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E155" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E155" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> by neo-liberal authorities, backed up by privat</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E156" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E156" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ely owned media). Hence I start with some</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E157" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E157" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> historical </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E158" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E158" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">notes worth to remember.</span></div>
<div id="E159" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E159" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 12pt 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E160" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E160" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Secondly, I’ll try </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E161" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E161" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">to present contemporary concepts </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E162" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E162" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">fo</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E163" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E163" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">r more sustainable design</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E164" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E164" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and methods more in line with appropriate technology – </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E165" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E165" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">giving us </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E166" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E166" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">a kind </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E167" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E167" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">of “Architects </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E168" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E168" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Almanac</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E169" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E169" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">”</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E170" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E170" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">, </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E171" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E171" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">if you remember the famous Farmers Almanacs</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E172" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E172" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. I</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E173" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E173" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">n simple words </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E174" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E174" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">it </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E175" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E175" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">gave thumb rule</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E176" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E176" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">s for farmers in the old times</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E177" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E177" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E178" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E178" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E179" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E179" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">and for many centuries</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E180" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E180" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E181" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E181" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> until “scientific farming” became conditional and traditional </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E182" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E182" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Low Tech </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E183" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E183" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">farming ceased. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E184" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E184" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Among dissident agriculture pundits, traditional farming methods in Africa</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E185" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E185" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">, all of a sudden are more sustainable than so called modern intensive farming – interesting, for sure!</span></div>
<div id="E186" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E186" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 12pt 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E187" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E187" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Of course, the economic decline (COED) will have a gre</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E188" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E188" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">at impact</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E189" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E189" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> on</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E190" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E190" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> so called “well-</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E191" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E191" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">to-</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E192" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E192" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">doers” but </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E193" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E193" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">will not be</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E194" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E194" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> much of a difference </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E195" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E195" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">for </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E196" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E196" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">the unemployed and people living in rural poverty - I sometimes wonder if this is not the strength of developing countries, a strength the more developed lost many generations ago. In fact, I think we here in Afri</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E197" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E197" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ca are more </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E198" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E198" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">resilient in </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E199" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E199" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">meet</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E200" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E200" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ing</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E201" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E201" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> economic decline than</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E202" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E202" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> the “privileged”</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E203" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E203" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> countries</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E204" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E204" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. But I leave that </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E205" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E205" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">question open for</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E206" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E206" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E207" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E207" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">applied philosophy</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E208" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E208" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">, at the moment.</span></div>
<div id="E209" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E209" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E210" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E210" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">And</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E212" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E212" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">, still</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E213" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E213" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> o</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E214" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E214" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">f course, this will </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E215" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E215" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">also </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E216" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E216" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">have great impact on the construction industry we have, engin</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E217" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E217" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">eers, architects, town planners </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E218" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E218" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">alike and other professions – e.g.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E219" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E219" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> realtors</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E220" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E220" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> (all well-</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E221" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E221" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">to-</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E222" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E222" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">doers, by the way</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E223" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E223" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> as well as most politicians – a democratic dilemma</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E224" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E224" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">)</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E225" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E225" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. </span></div>
<div id="E226" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E226" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E227" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E227" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">And we must remember, a very professional </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E228" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E228" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">macro-</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E229" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E229" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">economist, Prof. Roman </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E231" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E231" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">Grynberg</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E233" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E233" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">, has given warnings that the sustainability of ‘strip malls’ like the ones we have and now plus CBD is not written in stone and will hardly sustain </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E234" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E234" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">well </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E235" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E235" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">in a</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E236" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E236" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">n</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E237" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E237" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;"> economic decline situation. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E238" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E238" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">And </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E239" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E239" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">there are </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E240" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E240" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">many more warnings of the day.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E241" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E241" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Most seriously, some writers are pointing out that even opposition parties are cut off from the grass-roots.</span></div>
<div id="E242" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E242" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E243" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E243" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Adjustments to a new situation must be done </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E244" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E244" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">now</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E245" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E245" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> if we are serious about the appearance of and renewal of our now aged City, built for a quite different situation.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E246" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E246" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> For instance, o</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E247" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E247" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ur outdated ‘moderni</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E248" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E248" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">st’ codes and standards as well</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E249" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E249" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> as methodologies </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E250" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E250" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">are based on the eternal growth concept </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E251" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E251" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">and </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E252" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E252" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">won’t help us in a</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E253" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E253" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> declining economic situation</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E254" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E254" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E255" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E255" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">A good example is BHC that can’t produce truly low cost housing any longer - h</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E256" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E256" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ence we must start with examining the outdated rule</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E257" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E257" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">s</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E258" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E258" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">, codes and design principles</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E259" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E259" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E260" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E260" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E261" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E261" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">and also the construction methods </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E262" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E262" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">we have.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E263" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E263" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> I know studies are</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E264" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E264" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> being done but fear that the “eternal growth concept” might cause cognitive </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E265" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E265" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">dividing problems </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E266" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E266" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">and </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E267" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E267" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">quickly make </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E268" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E268" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">the </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E269" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E269" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">studies</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E270" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E270" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> outdated before the printing ink has dried.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E271" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E271" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E272" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E272" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">“You’re stance is wrong” as Peter Carr told me when I wanted to improve my golf</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E273" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E273" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">!</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E274" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E274" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E275" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E275" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Another fine metaphor!</span></div>
<div id="E276" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E276" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E277" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E277" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">So,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E278" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E278" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> let’s see what we have in the history books</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E279" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E279" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E280" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E280" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> on the net, today</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E281" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E281" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">:</span></div>
<div id="E282" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E282" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E283" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E283" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Let me start</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E284" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E284" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> with the </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E285" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E285" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">not very well known </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E286" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E286" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">online site </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E287" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E287" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">(by</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E288" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E288" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> architects and planners</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E289" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E289" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E290" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E290" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> even students)</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E291" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E291" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E292" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E292" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">called </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E294" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E294" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">Katarxis</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E296" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E296" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. In issue 3 there </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E297" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E297" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">is an article by Brian Hansson</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E298" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E298" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E299" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E299" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">(</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E300" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E300" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">co-ed</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E301" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E301" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">itor)</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E302" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E302" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> on “Science and Aspects”. It’s a long article and I have to abridge it extensively and thus</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E303" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E303" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E304" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E304" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> missing many aspects. But the interested r</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E305" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E305" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">eader will find it on the net (Katarxis.com).</span></div>
<div id="E306" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E306" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E307" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E307" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Then I’ll move to writings by </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E308" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E308" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">and on </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E309" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E309" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Chris</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E310" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E310" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">t</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E311" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E311" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">opher Alexander, earlier </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E312" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E312" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">mentioned in articles by me</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E313" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E313" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and father of what I call “An</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E314" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E314" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Architects Almanac”, mentioned above</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E315" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E315" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E316" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E316" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">I find his conclusions very essential for our fut</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E317" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E317" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ure as architects and planners as well as the</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E318" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E318" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> beauty of our City. Let me start with Brian’s writings:</span></div>
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<div id="E320" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E320" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E321" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E321" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Brian Hansson is presenting an old character and wise man – John Ruskin (1819-1900). An astonishing mod</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E322" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E322" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ern thinker that my professor in</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E323" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E323" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Architectural</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E324" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E324" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E325" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E325" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">History spent two hours to present to us students, once upon a time</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E326" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E326" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> (1964)</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E327" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E327" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> -</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E328" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E328" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> for deaf ears, mostly</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E329" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E329" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E330" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E330" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Ruskin seems to be totally forgotten today (even in univ</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E331" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E331" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ersities), consequently he must be highly important</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E332" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E332" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">!</span></div>
<div id="E333" is="qowt-para" named-flow="FLOW-12" qowt-eid="E333" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E334" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E334" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Ruskin was interested and active in many seemingly disparate fields and offered early clues about interactions between them and, </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E335" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E335" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">hence</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E336" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E336" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">, what unifies activities between archit</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E337" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E337" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ects, artists and critics (and</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E338" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E338" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> a link to the Prince of Wales regarding “modernism” and the devastating effect </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E339" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E339" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">it has </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E340" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E340" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">on today’s cities</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E341" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E341" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">)</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E342" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E342" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E343" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E343" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> There are</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E344" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E344" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> fascinating</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E345" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E345" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E347" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E347" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Ruski</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E348" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E348" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ni</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E349" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E349" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">an</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E351" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E351" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> ideas,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E352" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E352" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> based on late 19</span></div>
<div is="qowt-para" named-flow="FLOW-12" qowt-eid="E333" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E353" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E353" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; line-height: 0; vertical-align: super; white-space: pre-wrap; zoom: 0.75;">th</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E354" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E354" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> century developments that are</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E355" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E355" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> valid even today. His books – </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E356" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E356" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">The Seven Lamps of Architecture</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E357" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E357" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E358" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E358" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">The Stones of Venice</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E359" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E359" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> were cautiously welcomed </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E360" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E360" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">by professionals but his more radical tone in lectures and pamphlets were unheeded. A common situation for dissidents even today!</span></div>
<div id="E362" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E362" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E363" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E363" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">His books were translated to </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E364" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E364" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">other languages and many architects were impressed. Certainly by the importance he accorded to the faculty of “memory” (today we, especially Christopher Alexander, refer to </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E365" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E365" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">history and spirit of a place</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E366" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E366" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">) and his concerns began to make their mark on culture. But too slow</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E367" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E367" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E368" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E368" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> in his mind</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E369" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E369" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E370" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E370" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and he realized that the hurdles were to be found in political, economical and </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E371" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E371" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">social issues. </span></div>
<div id="E372" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E372" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E373" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E373" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">He went on with a book - </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E374" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E374" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">Unto this Last</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E375" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E375" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E376" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E376" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">on world economics</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E377" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E377" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> by the time (actually not very different from today’s problems</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E378" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E378" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. By the way – during a long train journey through South Africa, a young Indian lawyer read his book and it fell into fertile grounds. The lawyer was a young Mahatma </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E380" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E380" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Ghandi</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E382" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E382" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">!</span></div>
<div id="E383" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E383" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E384" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E384" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">In his lectures - </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E385" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E385" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">Storm Cloud of the 19</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E386" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E386" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; line-height: 0; vertical-align: super; white-space: pre-wrap; zoom: 0.75;">th</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E387" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E387" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Century</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E388" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E388" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> in 1884 – he describ</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E389" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E389" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ed the effects of industrial air</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E390" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E390" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> pollution. By the way, again, I hope our unions know that at the time of infant unions, </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E391" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E391" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">the</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E392" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E392" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> air pollution was the starting point for change. Not at all “a bigger piece of the pie – concept” that is the major spark for unions today (that doesn’t work well as the pie is getting smaller and smaller). Food for thought!</span></div>
<div id="E393" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E393" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E394" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E394" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Back to Ruskin</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E395" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E395" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> – his way of looking at the world led him to recognize omens to which conventional science was still blind. This was a full century before science caught up, bringing insights about the environment that Ruskin already could see. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E396" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E396" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">For instance:</span></div>
<div id="E397" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E397" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E398" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E398" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">When Modern Movement was born in the 1920’s</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E399" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E399" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E400" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E400" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and the fundamentals of it lasted well into the 1970’s in the western world (here it’s still alive in outdated codes, planning and zoning), there were in fact early warnings from Ruskin. He abhorred </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E401" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E401" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">“</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E402" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E402" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">the purism</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E403" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E403" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">”</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E404" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E404" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> of his time and could foresee what was in the pipeline and the common</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E405" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E405" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> errors of this concept that come to dominate</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E406" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E406" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> planning and architecture for</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E407" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E407" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> many decades long after he parted with this world.</span></div>
<div id="E408" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E408" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E409" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E409" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">A final point in this very abridged presentation of Ruskin is his discussion about the superiority of </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E410" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E410" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">aesthetics</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E411" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E411" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E412" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E412" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">over a </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E413" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E413" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">mathematic</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E414" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E414" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">s</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E415" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E415" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> view of the world. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E416" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E416" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">Aesthetic </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E417" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E417" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">matters (e.g. beauty, </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E418" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E418" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">form and </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E419" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E419" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">visual </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E420" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E420" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">impact</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E421" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E421" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">) are still regarded as woolly, imprecise and subjective while </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E422" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E422" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">mathematics</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E423" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E423" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E424" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E424" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> by contrast, is assumed to be scientific, precise, objective and economically rewarding (with its more ambiguous and uncertain details).</span></div>
<div id="E425" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E425" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E426" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E426" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">No wonder why the CBD area looks like it does</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E427" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E427" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> – and I know quite a few people that </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E429" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E429" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">abhors</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E431" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E431" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> it</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E432" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E432" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">!</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E433" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E433" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> And Ruskin very </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E434" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E434" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">early identified two important</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E435" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E435" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> failings of architecture </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E436" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E436" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">of his time as it became</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E437" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E437" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> too much preoccupied with individual buildings at the expense of </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E438" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E438" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">context</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E439" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E439" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and seldom</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E440" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E440" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> bothered with the visual impact on the environment. </span></div>
<div id="E441" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E441" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E442" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E442" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">It’s interesting that his aspects o</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E443" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E443" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">n</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E444" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E444" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> architecture and culture ha</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E445" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E445" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ve</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E446" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E446" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> a modern follower in Christopher Alexander (CA)</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E447" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E447" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E448" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E448" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> in my view. Ruskin’s grasp of “the whole” are exactly what we find in CA’s finding</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E449" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E449" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">s and writings – also presented</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E450" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E450" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> in </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E452" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E452" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Katarxis</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E454" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E454" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 3. </span></div>
<div id="E455" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E455" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E456" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E456" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">In an interview, CA is pointing to the lack of quality and value concepts in modern science that is confusing our paradigms of beauty and harmony in our built environments. His books, understandable even f</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E458" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E458" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">or laymen, are comprehensive, but, </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E459" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E459" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">somewhat expensive bestsellers. CA has been around for many years and I remember one of his first books – </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E460" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E460" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;">A City is not a Tree</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E461" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E461" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E462" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E462" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">–</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E463" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E463" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">subject to </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E464" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E464" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">heated discussions in my </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E465" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E465" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">student years. He was completely </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E467" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E467" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">right,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E469" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E469" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> a city is not a tree where you follow veins from a leaf to the root</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E470" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E470" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">, back and forth</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E471" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E471" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">. It is a patchwork of overlapping entities that must interact!</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E472" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E472" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></div>
<div id="E473" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E473" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E474" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E474" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">I have written about CA earlier in </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E476" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E476" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Boidus</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E478" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E478" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Focus </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E479" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E479" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">(e.g. The Game of Monopoly</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E480" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E480" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E481" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E481" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> issue Aug 9, 2012) </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E482" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E482" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">and I think I conclude with </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E483" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E483" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">his “Architecture and Science” from </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E485" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E485" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Katarxis</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E487" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E487" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 3</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E488" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E488" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E489" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E489" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">when he discussed his quartet of books </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E490" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E490" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">on </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E491" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E491" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">“</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E492" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E492" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">The Nature of Orders” . However,</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E493" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E493" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> it m</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E494" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E494" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">ust be made clear that CA’s</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E495" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E495" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> concept of “new science” includes earlier</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E496" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E496" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> somewhat “metaphysical” conceptions</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E497" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E497" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> of beauty, wholeness and </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E498" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E498" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">common man </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E499" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E499" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">perceptions</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E500" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E500" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">:</span></div>
<div id="E501" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E501" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E502" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E502" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">“</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E503" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E503" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">To</span><span id="E504" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E504" style="display: inline; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E505" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E505" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">create</span><span id="E506" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E506" style="display: inline; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E507" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E507" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">beauty of </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E508" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E508" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">form</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E509" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E509" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and beauty of adaption and connection, in the land or in the city – that is the core of every architect’s work. And as all of us know, who have tried to do it for years, it </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E510" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E510" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">is fiendishly difficult to it</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E511" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E511" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> well. </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E512" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E512" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">It makes the utmost challenge to our </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E513" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E513" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">abilities, our artistic skills, </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E515" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E515" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">our</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E517" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E517" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> emotional resources. Given how hard it is, and how precious it is when we achieve it, even in small degree, many architects may well ask themselves how anything scientific could possibly help them in such a task</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E518" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E518" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">. They could easily wonder – “Is the interest in new science, and in a new science of architecture, something trendy, a wish to be ‘scientific’ for its own sake and a little more?</span></div>
<div id="E519" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E519" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E520" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E520" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">The answer is a resounding “No.” The purpose of a scientific view of architecture is to enable us to create deeper structure – and that means more satisfying design, more eternal forms, more valuable places, more beautiful buildings. The new theory is not merely a gloss on architecture, to raise its intellectual level. It is above all, a source of help – artistic help – to pull us out the mud pit we have fallen into during the last eighty years, by making, following and copying over simplified forms, only because commercial instincts have robbed the field entirely of the </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E521" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E521" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">kind of awareness which was needed, for millennia, by the people who made the great buildings of the past, in many cultures and in many conditions.</span></div>
<div id="E522" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E522" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E523" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E523" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">The awareness hinges above all, on the processes that are used to make these buildings. The process we have learned, and have come to accept, as the “normal” way to design buildings and to get them built – the procurement methods of the 20</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E524" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E524" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; line-height: 0; vertical-align: super; white-space: pre-wrap; zoom: 0.75;">th</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E525" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E525" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> century – are very, very defective. To do better, to make places people genuinely like, to make places where people feel at home, it is necessary to have new tools of practice – new ways of creating buildings, new ways of conceiving buildings. The science </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E526" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E526" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">I speak of is the bearer of new, more sophisticated techniques of making, shaping and designing. That is something that </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E528" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E528" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;">open</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E530" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E530" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; white-space: pre-wrap;"> our eyes, as artists, and permits us to do things we have not dreamed of for decades or generations.”</span></div>
<div id="E531" is="qowt-para" qowt-eid="E531" style="display: block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 1.38; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 10pt;">
<span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E532" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E532" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">We must contemplate on these words when we are</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E533" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E533" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> engaged in architecture, place</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E534" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E534" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">-</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E535" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E535" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> making</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E536" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E536" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E537" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E537" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">and wholeness but mostly we do</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E538" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E538" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> not</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E539" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E539" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">! </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E540" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E540" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Otherwise, our designs might become lawyer jokes</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E541" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E541" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E542" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E542" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E543" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E543" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">And self-criticism is useful.</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E544" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E544" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E545" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E545" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">My</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E546" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E546" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> illustration</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E547" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E547" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> is from t</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E548" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E548" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">he Architects Costume Ball</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E549" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E549" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> in New York 1931 </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E550" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E550" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">– seemingly </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E551" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E551" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">one proud and six rather </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E552" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E552" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">embar</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E553" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E553" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">r</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E554" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E554" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">as</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E555" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E555" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">sed architects!</span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E556" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E556" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span class="qowt-font4-Verdana" id="E557" is="qowt-run" qowt-eid="E557" style="display: inline; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif !important; white-space: pre-wrap;">Sorry, my friends – planners and architects alike.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt;">- </span>JW<br /><span id="E562" qowt-divtype="document-img" qowt-eid="E562" style="background-image: url(blob:chrome-extension%3A//bpmcpldpdmajfigpchkicefoigmkfalc/6bc7456e-8413-4217-b788-3d11f3e2d236); background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 132.293mm 102.469mm; display: inline-block; font-family: Calibri, Carlito, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; height: 102.469mm; line-height: 1.38; width: 132.293mm;"></span></div>
Jan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5120210650085471884.post-13957198842813931062013-07-23T13:36:00.002-07:002013-07-23T13:37:08.577-07:00Alternative Construction Methods Urgently NeededAn interesting American professor in Ecological Economies (Herman Daly) wrote recently – “Upon having accumulated a lifetime of knowledge we all promptly die” and “successive generations repeat earlier mistakes”.. Let me oppose this with another column for Boidus and the development professionals.<br />
<br />
After a lifetime as a town planner, with all usual extrapolations of trends into the future, I’ve found that the crux of the matter is (and has always been) a fair discussion of the future as we can see it now. So much of the future has been defined by choices already made and opportunities long since foregone – not to talk about the stupid 25 year horizon of our development plans, based on already made choices. Facing a future with “less abundance” of finance and energy needs more than a simple Monopoly board and the few choices the playing cards indicate. We are not in times of self-full filling prophesies of ever growing GDP any longer, a fact you probably realized already.<br />
<br />
We are now in times when cost of manufacturing and energy needed must be seriously taken into account as well as the carbon footprint the construction industry is creating. Although the industry and many in the development professions (incl. real estate) seemingly treat this as a taboo subject, we have no other choice.<br />
<br />
My intention is to put some attention to building materials that are more “medium tech” than the old fashioned “low tech” technique in use at the moment. I’ll do so but first some words about the impassible construction methods we are currently (and traditionally) using and the consequences of that.<br />
<br />
Let us take a look at an UK paper (from Google) under the headings they use, starting with<br />
Climate Change - Building use in the UK contributes about 50%of the UK’s CO2 emissions and construction contributes another 7% (figures from 2004). The main base performance criteria for energy efficient buildings all concern the thermal performance of the building shell where most of the CO2 gains can be made.<br />
<br />
Thus my column in Boidus 01.02.2012 – Embodied Energy - and we received not a single comment! The 7% can be reduced depending on materials and design, of course also on building methods and technique’s applied. The paper goes on:<br />
<br />
The fact is that if we are serious about climate change then we need to stop playing games with technologies which do not delver real CO2 savings. The real challenge in this area is the refurbishment of existing buildings (soon very imminent here as well as those being built right now). However, it would help for a start if we also produced really energy efficient buildings (and we are not doing this).<br />
<br />
<br />
Waste - The waste going to landfills from the construction industry in 2004 was about 100 million tons. This is more than 3 times the amount of domestic waste collection (28 million tons)….and this is equivalent to one house being buried in the ground for every 3 built….and the calculations do not take into account an extra 25% energy for waste.<br />
<br />
These are figures for 2004 and UK. But looking around in the un-built areas of Gaborone and the way we are knocking down, actually crushing, so called illegal buildings, I’m sure we are close to the UK figures (if turned into percentage). This doesn’t augur well regarding the coming re-development of older parts in our City.<br />
The report goes on highlighting “Resource Use” and points out that a large proportion of construction materials are imported there, as here. And transportation of building materials over long distances is not only expensive (in the future, maybe unsustainable) as well as increasing the CO2 transmissions.<br />
<br />
The report ends with a note that the construction industry has a big impact (probably the biggest of all industrial sectors) on the carbon emission. And we know from other studies that the simple curing of concrete stands for +5% of the total carbon emissions to the atmosphere.<br />
<br />
In short, there is high time to discuss our building and construction methods – and there are actually much better alternatives than the use of concrete blocks and cement, for instance. I will point out such alternatives in the following but first a typical experience:<br />
<br />
In my early days here in Botswana and living in a small apartment next to GSS, I got an offer of a plot (rented) in a charming village within reach of my motorbike. I made a deal with a local builder of making me two huts (roundavels), one for sleeping and one for eating + a pit latrine and water connection.<br />
<br />
I handed out the money necessary for concrete blocks and some bags of cement. Simultaneously, a lady neighbor and mother of two small ones, started building her hut from sundried bricks she had made during a couple of months and covered her entire yard. Before my sleeping hut was up to roof height, she had moved in to her new house, neatly plastered the traditional way – of course I realized that her traditional hut needed a lot of maintenance in the rainy season but my conclusion was clear – high building standards take time and money!<br />
<br />
Also, my firm belief was that construction problems here are often lack of supervision. Correct me if you can! And these conclusions are of importance when we talk about housing of the “common man” which is where I’m heading right now.<br />
<br />
I’m not saying this to embarrass the “large scale” construction industry – I know since long that they know perfectly well how to handle the issue of “prefab” – often the key to successful construction of scale. Following story might be of interest:<br />
<br />
The construction of Sowa Town and the timely needs of the mining company didn’t seem to be congruent at the planning stage. But problems were solved and this will show the prudence of my current critical mind. Skills and determination were at hand and problems were overcome quite easily due to foresight and experience of the involved specialists!<br />
<br />
In short – there was the task of building more than 650 houses in a short time. The choice was – hand built masonry houses that would take a hoard of skilled bricklayers and supervisors (that wasn’t within the borders of Botswana) or some kind of “prefabrication and fitters” that many large construction firms could supply (in chorus). The clever architect from Anglo-American, Tony Young, recommended the “prefab” concept and a site factory. Consequently, housing needs were met with few delays.<br />
<br />
To show you what this involved, I give you some illustrations from “Planning 113” of 1992. The prefab factory and construction worked like this:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4knK4eoz4lwfYU18GPYfhslKyZ-GRmoIkyRJr_0iKn5yYUNE6U9is4SDgy4_BOB5OCLTtUg_rJSXFw1StZSC6LHI_iCS2Pl_JcnSyxMM5GZCyyphtKemRGgVTzYZdmx8tw7kHeptFI9M/s1600/Plain+Talk+13+pic+1.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4knK4eoz4lwfYU18GPYfhslKyZ-GRmoIkyRJr_0iKn5yYUNE6U9is4SDgy4_BOB5OCLTtUg_rJSXFw1StZSC6LHI_iCS2Pl_JcnSyxMM5GZCyyphtKemRGgVTzYZdmx8tw7kHeptFI9M/s400/Plain+Talk+13+pic+1.jpeg" width="111" /></a></div>
<i style="font-size: small;">"Illustration 1 Some excerpts from Planning 113"</i><br />
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Consequently, I see no problem in the “large projects” done by BHC, Time and a few other developers. But it always looks to me as “experiments” rather than necessity. There is seldom any follow up of it, unfortunately – we’re always starting from zero.<br />
<br />
But coming to building materials, there is a serious oversight here. And I’m talking about modern building blocks that have been used in more industrialized countries since the late 1920’s – the so called Autoclaved Aerated Concrete (AAC), produced under different labels since the old patent lapsed. Ytong, Leca, Xella, Siporex - the list is long.<br />
<br />
* It’s lightweight concrete of very exact dimensions easy to cut to preferred shape (by saw) and hardly in need of more than one millimeter of very thin mortar;<br />
<br />
* Furthermore, the products have much more of interesting advantages compared to conventional concrete – it uses less concrete since Portland cement is one of the most energy and carbon-intensive building materials;<br />
<br />
* Despite the energy-intensive autoclaving (baking) process, manufacturers say it takes about 50% less energy to make, because of the lower Portland cement content by volume and so far this no one has challenged this claim;<br />
<br />
* It’s lighter which cuts down transportation costs and fuel use;<br />
<br />
* It’s a better insulator to heat and cold and has excellent sound proof properties;<br />
<br />
* It is also fire resistant.<br />
<br />
A drawback is the fact that we have no manufacturer in Botswana but rumors are that there is someone experimenting with it somewhere in Gaborone North. It would be interesting to hear from him. Maybe he is also suffering from this modern syndrome of “patents” as most people in need of affordable medicine.<br />
<br />
Another one is that AAC is only feasible for low and mid-rise buildings – hence very popular for single family houses, schools etc. For higher buildings, reinforcements are needed – and most manufacturers have systems and solutions for this.<br />
<br />
AAC has the advantage that it can be produced in closed factory conditions as the “baking” gives unwanted emissions (but less than ordinary curing cement - remember the high amount of CO2 produced by this method).<br />
<br />
However, this fault in manufacturing ordinary stones can also be “cured” and it as to do with the ballast/aggregate used. Today it is mostly crushed gravel of certain size. It is clear that things are happening today from the sites I’ve been clicking. The new thing is to swop the old kind of aggregate to pebbles or crushed AAC. Then the old type of concrete stone will keep the CO2, dissolved in the AAC elements and the large amount of carbon is neutralized inside the stone. Clever – but it will need an interested manufacturer and probably a more expensive product.<br />
<br />
I will probably write more on this issue in the future and I’ll end with some pictures of the new/old lightweight AAC and it’s following here.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJHlJKY8SGfZNiSo9x528ihpiGKbJj1_JYQrER0v-jMMXs7rI-f6CLYZQfM48Wf7KYawSCetEVukbV_0o_T5T9Q3_LYI9jnpfBbaEHxUgfW_SUHKtl7nWXkt8ZfFm0Oyt-CaH78H1LXOs/s1600/Plain+Talk+13+pic+2.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJHlJKY8SGfZNiSo9x528ihpiGKbJj1_JYQrER0v-jMMXs7rI-f6CLYZQfM48Wf7KYawSCetEVukbV_0o_T5T9Q3_LYI9jnpfBbaEHxUgfW_SUHKtl7nWXkt8ZfFm0Oyt-CaH78H1LXOs/s400/Plain+Talk+13+pic+2.jpeg" width="398" /></a></div>
<br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;"> "Illustration 2"</span></i><br />
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<br />
Jan Wareus<br />
Plain Talk –Dec 21/2012Jan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5120210650085471884.post-64780995258905307432012-10-29T15:01:00.003-07:002013-07-23T13:13:11.559-07:00Boidus- Importance of Memory and History in Planning<br />
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A few years back I wrote a couple of
articles for a local paper about the importance of Culture and Identity and
also touched upon the equally important issue of History. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I also quoted Sir Seretse Khama’s famous
statement that we cannot understand where we are going, if we don’t know from
where we are coming. Hence, we cannot build a future with identity without the proper
<i>visual</i> artefacts of our history and
culture, in my opinion. And her I take rather <i>recent</i> history as often important to connect with the past.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We cannot treat our few landmarks as
objects in a china crushing stand at a carnival! We have now a situation of
that kind coming up:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Let us start with a picture of a very
famous architect, planner and designer from Southern Africa, well known and
awarded prizes from all over the world – Jose Forjaz from Mocambique – the
designer behind the first phases of UB (or UCBLS – Univ College of Botswana,
Lesotho and Swaziland), designed and built in mid-70’s and opened in 1977:</span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Jose Forjaz – UB architect 1974</span><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">My story is – when reading a paper I see an
“Invitation to Tender” from the Tender Committee, University of Botswana –
“Consultancy Services for the Proposed Decommissioning or Demolishing of Old
Buildings at UB”.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As some of it is already demolished and
new, tasteless and bombastic buildings are the fashion, I immediately come to
think of the few remaining original buildings from the early day of UB (when
Swaziland and Lesotho were our partners). That’s the careful design by <i>Jose Forjaz</i>, internationally well-known
architect that in 1989 was rewarded the Ralph Erskine Award for his designs. A
Fact that R E pointed out when here in 1992 when having a workshop/seminar at
UB, sponsored by SIDA.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Consequently we have a landmark in Gaborone
that not many other African Cities have. But according to the Tender
Invitation, now prone to demolishing! Minus another landmark so to say if you
have followed my earlier essays.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, I got a message from Killion
Mokwete, architect and lecturer at the UB dept for architecture (furthermore
the editor of Boidus Focus).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">His message to me simply said – “the
demolition has been suspended after a colleague started a petition which gained
a lot of support from staff and students”. Well and fine, but...<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It’s a good first step but hardly the last
– an academic tender committee has as many lives as a cat! So I read the
message as “temporarily suspended” and the committee will probably be lobbying
with various authorities. And as far as I know, UB doesn’t have to <i>ask</i> for planning and building
permission, just notify about the start of the project, as far as I know.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We are in fact dealing with the Ministry of
Education here, not City Council and the Town & Country Planning Board.
Thus, I think the anti-demolition activists must see that the famous old
buildings will have a “building preservation order” from the Minister in
charge.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I see it, the future for the landmark is
still uncertain – keep fighting at the grassroots and involve the antiquarians
at the Museum!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I find it important for the future that we
follow SSK’s statement – UB is an important part of Gaborone (and Botswana) and
has a history of its own. <i>And that
history must be made visual to students, teachers and visitors by preserving
more than one or two buildings – there is a living environment to be preserved!</i><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="line-height: 115%;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And wouldn’t it be fair by UB to contact
the architect and ask him for advice. Maybe he can incorporate the old parts
into some new concept while keeping a creative view on history and identity?
That’s normally done when the architect is still alive and active.</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Let me now give you some few words in
general about History, Culture and Identity - how important the issues are,
especially when we are coming to a “renewal situation”. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">A renewal and the ever ongoing expansion of
the City don’t start with a blank slate or panel. It is always primed by
topography, existing objects and <i>history</i>.
It is unthinkable to imagine that an established university of reputation (and,
thus, ranking) would <i>demolish </i>old
buildings to create new – they mostly don’t have the finance for that – <i>do we have that</i>? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Impotent two-variable thinking has already
cost a fortune to Botswana. For instance the de-construction of easily
upgradable roundabouts to horrible non-functional robotized four way stops. I
have written a lot about this in other articles, but to no avail. I only hope
that the unfortunate financial recession will put a stop to this frenzy so we
can mildly upgrade the ones left for us (as memory of earlier times). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Let me finish with an example how history
and previous use of land for agricultural purposes also can determine the
future use and planning. Almost all existing “expansion” land outside cities,
towns and major settlements have been divided up in fields and used for crop
production since many generations.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Consequently, they have a history and
certain conditions that must be understood by the planners. Fields are “”belonging”
to somebody, have distinct borders, often with drains, tracks and some trees.
The fields have soil conditions peculiar to planting. Tracks are compacted and
drains clayish. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">We often see plans produced by either DTRP
or consultants (working in accordance with DTRP orders – remember, this
authority has the most un-experienced planners you can find – often employed
straight from university). If you check new detailed plans, you mostly find
iron-grid layouts with no reference to the existing fields or topography. It’s
like a big brother from government will come in with a bag of millions and
prepare for the infrastructure.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">But development on tribal land is seldom
Council or GoB-funded like the old Accelerated Land Servicing Programmes for
towns. They are Land Board based and there is hardly any project finance. The
development must evolve bit by bit over time and for many years, the new
settlers must suffer from no constructed roads, drains and probably no sewers.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Furthermore, the overworked LB surveyors
must deal with a lot of claims from “landowners” that have a corner here and
there cut off. And new plot owners must build houses partly on an old field,
partly over a ditch or an old track. Knowing the situation at LB’s, this is not
feasible.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">If the development had been “field by
field”, tracks kept for transportation and ditches for storm water disposal, and
existing vegetation intact, we have a more pragmatic and rational development
in tune with the history of the place – <i>the
spirit of the place</i>, called. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">A paper on this methodology has been
presented by me many years ago but can’t even be found in the DTRP library,
today.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Bad methodologies cost government a lot of
money – I don’t like to say this but fortunately we have to Change, just like
in USA. And like there – it’s most important to find housing concepts better
than the “bungalow” one!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Jan Wareus<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Jan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5120210650085471884.post-45484425906066562132012-08-09T14:16:00.000-07:002012-08-09T14:16:41.763-07:00The Game of Monopoly, Town Planning and Quest for Urban Design<div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">I’m not writing this against any ideas presented by fellow professionals in Boidus Focus. On the contrary, I’m very much in support of them. However, I have to caution that we must change the “playing board” or we cannot achieve much, unfortunately.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">In my previous writings, I have indicated that a future “less abundance” world will have serious implications for us as professionals. I have pointed out the rapidly escalating building costs - to a great degree due to import, transportation and lack of local production. Thus, there is a need for us to localize building materials production.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">Furthermore, we must (as the builder’s advisor) do what we can to reduce the carbon footprint of the buildings as well as maintenance costs (electricity for air-cons, lifts etc) and create a sustainable basis for the building industry for the future. So much for the future...<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">But we have problems with what has already been built – it’s not up to any standard of value. Right - but I also indicated that we once had some kind of holistic standard that was destroyed! But let’s forget that and take some new steps and go for a “change”!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">I read complains about the lack of landmarks in our City. I think that this fact, a holistic incompleteness, is the real background for the “Design Forum 2012” and Boidus focussing on the “State of our Cities”. This is to me a good development and I read with great interest the words from the old doyen of architecture and urban planning and design – Mr L Mosienyane. As well as the words from his junior, Mr P Moalofi.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">They are so right about the need for urban design in our cities. The question is how to apply it in the existing web of bureaucratic standards, codes, land evaluations and regulations. It’s like sitting around a Monopoly board, playing a simplified game and asking for new rules that the other players doesn’t feel a need for.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">Dear colleagues, this metaphor of Monopoly is not a laughing matter. In 1974, more than 80 million games had been sold (translated to 27 languages). And many more since then, “upgraded” with skyscrapers and more easy ways of getting out of prison (and even credit cards). <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">As a matter of fact, the game has been extensively used in university education of finance students. Easy enough for them to understand, I guess. It has definitely had a serious impact on town planning and totally void of design for beauty! A sad story, indeed.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">So, pardon me, we are all playing Monopoly! And the whole basis for modern town planning and urban design is this simplified rule of the game. Control an area, build houses, collect rentals, increase the value and build a hotel (and skyscrapers, today). It’s money and profit (and bankruptcy) and not wholeness and beauty that’s the name of the game.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">And a strong, sticking web has been developed around this rather lately created concept – that’s what has to be moderated so we have a chance of discussing wholeness, landmarks and beauty!</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">The web is not “www”! It consists of codes, standards and acts that have been created here. And everybody that has read the Terms of Reference for a planning project knows what I’m talking about – Development Control Code, Urban Development Standards etc. Pre-school regulations for playschool kids – embarrassing - why do we accept it? Funny enough, I have noticed that the strangulating web doesn’t even go very well with urban estate theory and bank lending policies. Maybe, we can walk on toes and hold hands with them for a “change”.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">To wind this up and showing the incompatibility of existing rules/regulations and the basic design concept for an urban renewal project, I’m about to present “A New Theory of Urban Design” by Christopher Alexander (CA) et cons. It is from 1978 so “new” must be taken with a pinch of salt. But, I have learnt much from this student project – by the way, Boidus, why don’t we make the ext.2 renewal a student project, for a start? With no restrictions but to beauty and make wholeness! And the CA book a compulsory reading?</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">To understand CA right, he has for many years been trying to be explicit about the implicit in architecture and urban design in the past. An enormous undertaking and the results are impressing. His books “A Pattern Language” and “The Nature of Order” must be read by us in the field. As well as students aiming for the field! <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">What was forcing the old masters to comply with the wholeness of the town? What explains the “secrets” our modern masters had? They were ”spiritual” and tongue-tight because, I think, the metaphysical character, artistic approach (contrary to positivistic and modern science). But essential to know for us field-workers in the guild. We must honor him! His book “A New Theory of Urban Design” (1978) is now a collector’s item. As I told you, it is about an academic project, cleaning an area of fixed plot lines, zoning, urban administration, financing and economics.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">As an illustration to this writing, I include the dust cover text for your reading </span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">Not astonishingly, the result was an old fashioned, somewhat Mediterranean coastal city, centuries old. Teaching us a lesson, indeed. See the City they built in a :25 model</span><span style="color: #0070c0; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">!</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">We are victims of “modern” regulations and codes! And the pure “urban design” cannot work without changing the DTRP rules!!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">As the Boidus interviews in last issue are indicating implicitly, we have to realize that our present institutions are at odds with a consistent urban renewal process. And drastically so – present-day methods, conceptions and procedures are incompatible with the desire for wholeness, to use the words of CA. That’s our problem, folks!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">We have a “climate” full of defects – we call them problems as they require corrections so we can create a well functioning and good looking society. And the problems are inbuilt in the existing planning process. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Remember the following words by Herman Daly: The more we have of permanent rules, the less able we are to make necessary adjustments and meet changing conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">We must come up with an alternative planning process!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Bureaucratic Steps<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">M C Escher (Dutch artist 1898-1972)–detail from “Ascending and Descending” /Wikipedia<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
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</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0070c0;">Jan Wareus June 2012<o:p></o:p></span></div><br />
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</div>Jan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5120210650085471884.post-9325017728901050652012-08-09T13:13:00.001-07:002012-08-09T13:38:22.953-07:00RENEWABLE IGNORANCE – Gaborone City 25 yrs<div class="MsoNormal"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTV5Vsu3ReOKnKz3Tr_-FOQcaMZI6qt6wgJex2jReHuzmQvoq0hr180lSzOuspklEUAdQQmpJUEf7oY4YC9HXP8jEEf9a_kCIG2UdCBwNxIBrGTasCswSfyoDVW4EmGzQDmCs1dHld2Xk/s1600/plain+10.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTV5Vsu3ReOKnKz3Tr_-FOQcaMZI6qt6wgJex2jReHuzmQvoq0hr180lSzOuspklEUAdQQmpJUEf7oY4YC9HXP8jEEf9a_kCIG2UdCBwNxIBrGTasCswSfyoDVW4EmGzQDmCs1dHld2Xk/s400/plain+10.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span> <div style="text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Beauty comes with a Twist</span></div><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
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</span> <span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">What I want to say this time is not hard to write about – and follows:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The change 25 yrs ago – from Town to City – should have been a remarkable change of protocol. According to complains I hear, running a godforsaken rural small town on the outskirts of the Kalahari, however idyllic, innocent and against all odds declared a Capital, is not the same as running a CITY CAPITAL.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Instead of boozing up the management in 1987, the Council went on with business as usual. By time a handful of un-experienced students (seconded by GoB) were filling a few vacant posts in the council as qualified, essential staff were obviously too expensive for the council. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A serious mistake by the council of the time.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Consequently, the small town, upgraded to a City, is still being run by fairly understaffed departments that are not always equipped to scrutinize and confidently handle multimillion projects. And the important decisions are made by elected laymen. The paradox of democracy, some intellectuals say. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Thus, the talk of the town indicates that the City Council is not run by appointed experts but by elected politicians and the forces of the market. Councillors are frequently changed and many of them have a few fingers in the market pot, too. So the market is well represented and ignorance renewed.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">So I hear – let me try and analyse what has gone and is going wrong with this City of ours. My lamentation goes like this, based on a few key issues stated here:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: 0cm;"><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">1.<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; font-style: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></i><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Any capital City must be able to present the visitor and the inhabitants the “soul” of the country in what many of the critics call landmarks.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: 0cm;"><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: 0cm;"><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">2.<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; font-style: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></i><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">A true capital City must have a functional and understandable context, even if complex. And being an important focal point in the region (Greater Gaborone). <o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: 0cm;"><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: 0cm;"><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">3.<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; font-style: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></i><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Infrastructure must be well functioning and rational, without unnecessary hindrances and bottlenecks - e.g. we must have a well functioning and maintained public transport system covering the region.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: 0cm;"><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: 0cm;"></div><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">On the question on “landmarks”, I want to remind you of my view presented in Plain Talk 8 (Boidus 01/o4/12) – i.e. as an ordinary “town” Gaborone had a significant landmark, once. It was a small “Garden City” in accordance with the theories of Ebenezer Howard – a small garden city straight out of the theory book! Not many other towns could proudly refer to such a fact, not even the ones in UK. And due to clever politics of the time, the “segregating” elements in Howard’s model had been eliminated. Gaborone was visited by many professionals, quite a number of interested people, just because of this </span></div><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: 0cm;">landmark. </span></div><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: 0cm;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I have to mention this as reminder of the fact that a landmark might not necessarily be a museum, a traditional village, a game reserve or some statues! For instance, Brasilia and Chandigarh are visited on basis of the architecture and planning. Food for thoughts, so to say!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Now, when the basis for that kind of appreciation is destroyed, we have to try a different approach to the landmark issue. In my view, a pleasant city must have a number of interesting buildings, places (and spaces), creating a wholeness. And if not any single one of them can be pointed out as THE landmark, the totality, the whole, and their interaction will constitute the landmark we are lacking so far. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I pointed this out earlier and also that the landmark we had was bit by bit de-constructed and resulting in an amorphous traffic chaos - a rather embarrassing, negative landmark.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">As far as I can see, the future for a positive image of the City lies with a profound understanding of “wholeness” and not individual “landmarks”. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">This leads me to propose that the City must urgently create a <i>City Beauty Council</i> or <i>Urban Aesthetics Council</i>, an advisory board that most of the important cities all over the world has created since long.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Such a board must deal with the impact of <i>large</i> projects (as defined in the Town and Country Planning Act) and include the <i>visual</i> impact. As most architects and designers today are 110% and more in the harness of the developers, this must be a relief to them. And that is my experience of the Beauty Council I come in contact with in Stockholm, once upon a time. Most architects liked it and referred to it when developers became too arrogant. And it also encouraged the designers/architects to lift themselves up to levels they didn’t know they were capable to reach.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">A few, though, complained about “no freedom of design”. What kind of freedom – freedom to be arbitrary or freedom to be appropriate? However, most professionals in major cities are accepting that their prposed “landmarks” are scrutinized by such a council.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I sincerely think this is the way of giving us in Gaborone some kind of official evaluation of the visual impact future developments may have.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">But it is important to understand that a Beauty Council is not there to “put lipstick on the gorilla”. On the contrary – the task is to care for wholeness, townscape, interaction between buildings – in short, a city to be proud of!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The illustration this time you find on the InterNet as it doesn’t want to print. It is about the Stockholm Beauty Council and look for <span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><</span><i>Stockholm.se/ skonhetsradet></i> where you find a brief presentation. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Why don’t we try this way out of an embarrassing situation mostly due to so called market demands? The global market hasn’t been able to take care of its own needs, and even less the local needs. That’s a lesson we are learning more of day by day.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">When coming to the point of the City as a focal point in a <i>region</i>, I must say that the ignorance by the City regime doesn’t augur well for the future. The historical boundaries are reached and the city, with prevailing development concept, has come to its “walls”. So the future of the City and its importance is very much outside these walls. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">This is a common and shared problem for most cities. And most of them have created some kind of regional association for co-operation. And soon this has resulted in some kind of regional plan, indicating how different parts of the region can cooperate on transport, localization, infrastructure a s o. A planning colleague, Jason Sechele, has written about this kind of problems but as far as I know, not been approached by GCC – why?<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I fear to conclude that GCC is awaiting that “experts” from Town and Regional Planning will have to impose some ridiculous concept on GCC!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">It’s high noon for acting, now – or it will be imposed ten years too late! And the situation has grown from bad to worse for GCC.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The most pertinent question for a <i>Regional Council </i>will, naturally, be about public transport (as many places outside the City are “bedroom communities” to Gaborone). Which leads to the next issue listed above.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">On the question of a functional, rational and easily run public transport system for <i>the region, </i>I have written about the issue in, mostly, Sunday Standard, but my readers <i>now</i> might have missed it. Thus, here it is in brief:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I feel embarrassed on behalf the road engineers that are busy to find borrowed money to de- and reconstruct the roads we have. A few friends are calling our City “Baby Los Angeles”! And I have to agree that we are day by day looking like that. And we have learnt nothing from the LA syndrome or decease. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I was in LA in 1964 and met Victor Gruen, a (then) well known planner and architect (at that time there was no rift between architects and town planners – the latter was then just a specialised architect). When I asked what had happened with the famous public transport system, he sighed and explained:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The streetcar (trams) and bus based system was very good and based on taxes. A new ticketing order was introduced and all of a sudden the finances went into red. The system cost more than money gained. Soon the transport system was up for sale. Ford, Chrysler and GM were interested to buy. They had invested a lot in a growing auto market. GM took over and started dismantling the public transport system bit by bit (after raising the ticket price, of course). Result – public transport disappeared and private cars increased. <i>And</i> the sprawl of suburbs also increased. Enormous traffic jams occurred. Federal and government money went into new roads and large traffic junctions (also tax money but much more than before). So, we have subsidized the auto industry and here you can see the new LA that doesn’t function any longer!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">And that “new” LA we are mimicking here now! To a high cost and also subsidizing private, bad functioning, private transport.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Something must be learnt from this – especially when we can study cities of our own size (e.g. Grenoble) having well functional public transport to a cost that makes ticketing almost unnecessary.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I think I have to stop for the time being and I recommend further reading on theories of arriving to beauty and good functioning cities on the net. For instance </span><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-ZA; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="http://www.katarxis3.com/"><i><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">www.katarxis3.com</span></i></a></span><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> that is easily found on Google or Yahoo.</span></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: 0cm;">There is also a </span><i style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: 0cm;">Council for New Urbanism (CNU) </i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: 0cm;">on the net</span><i style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: 0cm;"> </i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: 0cm;">that is a must for everyone interested in urban development in our times.</span></span></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: 0cm;">Now I’m preparing to dig into an issue that are of great importance to our towns and cities – that is land evaluation and the role of land costs for town planning and building.</span></span></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: 0cm;"><br />
</span></span></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: 0cm;"><br />
</span></span></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: 0cm;">Jan Wareus/JOWA – </span><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: 0cm;">If you don’t know, my full name is <b>J</b>an <b>O</b>ve <b>Wa</b>reus</span> </span></span></div>Jan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5120210650085471884.post-64702794034979144512012-07-13T14:06:00.000-07:002012-07-13T14:06:48.492-07:00Seven Steps to Heaven<div class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">-The Gaborone North/Phakalane disaster and bureaucrazy!<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></i></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">It is not possible to talk about the past without giving some kind of historical overview – the “climate of the day”, so to say. Let me begin like this:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">We are going to talk about the times from Independence to about mid-80-ies. The president, Sir Seretse Khama (SSK), studied Law and other things (e.g. John M Keynes macro-economic theories) in the 60-ies, well ahead of the later neo-conservative Chicago-school of old economical “axioms” from late 1800 and early 1900. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In fact – SSK was a <i>social democrat </i>and made a few study tours to Scandinavia to find out how this policy worked – the so called “middle way” - more sustainable to developing countries than later “hard core” neo-classical economics. He even made a deal with the Swedish government to have physical planners seconded to Botswana via SIDA.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">As social democrats are inherently from the Keynesian side of the macro-economic border, a few planners arrived here in the late 70-ies, like myself (arriving in mid January - 79) to make physical plans for future Botswana the “middle way”, <i>developmental</i>, that is.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Now, remember, this is the time when Keynes was swapped as an economic/political <i>conservative</i> named Milton Friedman of the Chicago School of Economics became the economic hero of the day – waiving a diploma from the Nobel Prize Committee for his economic ideas! A paradox, so to say! But such things happen often in our modern “global” world.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Henceforth, a “re-born” old economic paradigm was bit by bit presented by “tamed” economists from IMF and World Bank (plus WTO) and become the basis for future planning of “new” macro-economics. Often called <i>neo-liberal</i> or <i>neo-conservative</i>, sometimes even <i>neo-classical</i>. Make your choice and remember that this happened in the late 70-ies and early 80-ies here.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">SSK died in July 1980 and <i>social planning</i> was soon forgotten – then <i>market planning</i> (sellers market) became dominant (for BHC, too). As I know it, the SSK followers were educated in another era of <i>neo-conservative</i> economics with figure-heads like Reagan and Thatcher. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Consequently, <i>social planning</i> was out and <i>market planning</i> was the new thing. Our Botswana social planning balloon burst all of a sudden. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Except for Sir Ketumile, no IMF and World Bank educated local economist in government had the slightest idea about the economic history of developing countries. How the developed countries reached <i>their</i> goals.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">This was a sad time for Botswana, in my opinion – the old “develop-mentalist” (middle way) concept, very much designed for developing countries, was abandoned – a concept that once worked so well for western countries (based on financial regulations, protected markets, and a piece of social welfare - still in use here and there, even in USA).<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">And here we are, today – the prevailing situation – a macro-economy that doesn’t work well for developing countries not <i>then </i>or <i>now</i> when we are facing a world of less abundance (i.e. limited growth and need of a steady state economy).<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">However, the many bursting economic (and real estate) global bubbles we have experienced are seemingly making some developing countries re-thinking. And as far as I can see, we are also giving now prevailing “axioms” a second thought. But how is the “free-market” responding? Well, it is still relying on <i>eternal growth</i> when we clearly see that resources are finite (oil, for instance).<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">To make a long story short, there is an upcoming disaster called Phakalane in the papers, now becoming a kind of <i>myth</i> – the above writings are part of the explanation to current predicament for this township, initially presented as an “an independent township” by the landowner. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i>However, we mustn’t forget that Phakalane was given an approval by the Minister of the time – consequently, the authorities </i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">must<i> live up to this approval! When a Minister uses his veto against a decision of his Town & Country Planning Board, it implicitly means that the TCPB advice wasn’t correct in his mind! Land policy must include the landowners views – we have to try it, he implicated – remember SSK had before his depart accepted this – that must have been the Ministers thinking!<o:p></o:p></i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><i><br />
</i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">To be loyal and obedient to government decisions by the civil servants is basic in most countries. But here in Botswana it appears that we have “factions” even in the civil servants daily work – no impartiality! And the servant’s memory (probably also envy) is as long as the old road to Ghanzi. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Back to the old times – in May 1979 (not 1978 as the applicant for the change of land of his farm is indicating in his autobiography – let’s call him DM forthwith), I was told by my Director/DTRP (Mr York-Smith – YS) that DM had asked for an <i>appointment</i> and YS would, <i>unfortunately</i>, be <i>very</i> busy in a meeting with the Minister (and his deputy, principal planner Mr O Andersson, OA, <i>unfortunately</i> needed a sudden sick leave due to his Bell’s Paisy). So Mr Wareus (JW), after just a couple of months at DTRP (not even <i>domesticated</i>, then, see DM’s book) and not even allocated a proper office (JW had only a corner in the drawing office for laying out Gaborone West) had to meet DM and tell him that his case was OUT as the forefathers had deemed his land <i>agricultural</i>!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">DM is telling us in his book that JW was an <i>arrogant</i> Swede. Maybe so, but a lot embarrassed also. My brief by YS and OA was just <i>brief – “it’s against GoB policy to encourage private townships that doesn’t take into account the housing policy by GoB on agricultural land – DM is speculating!</i><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><i><br />
</i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">More importantly – after I had been <i>appointed</i> by YS and OA, I was called to a meeting with some <i>very</i> important directors for other government departments (Dir S&L and BHC – Mr Di<b>ck</b>son, no <b>x</b>,<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> DM</span>, and Mr Richardson) and told that the entire housing policy of GoB would <i>disintegrate and fall apart</i> if the new town was approved (<i>as cross-subsidies from high cost to low cost would not be possible - no high cost left in town</i>). Consequently, I was very nervous when I met DM. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">However, I tried my own way when I had the meeting and made it clear to DM that some kind of “deal” with Council and GoB was needed, as, in my experience from earlier work in Sweden, private initiatives were <i>acceptable </i>but must follow <i>established</i> policies. I “arrogantly” told DM this experience as an advice for the future of his new town concept.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">But I realized, then, that I was the department’s sacrificial lamb! Last arrival, first to go, if something was not to the liking to YS or the Office of the President, who gave the orders regarding DM’s application. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I gave DM <i>my</i> best advice - he should negotiate with the authorities but he was adamant that he only needed <i>an approval</i>. His idea was an “independent” township, with its own water, sewer, power a s o. My “arrogant” question was – has that ever happened anywhere? <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt;">The difference between long-term loans for infrastructure and quick bucks for selling even fine plots is <i>enormous</i>, financially seen. So much I had learnt from the earlier introduction of neo-conservative economic in other countries (including US of A).<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt;">And I pointed to a book I had on the table ( The Suburban Dream – recently arrived to my office), indicating that not even in the US of A, suburban townships could be built on private money, only, too much upfront and too much interest to pay over long time. But DM was true to his “perseverance” attitude and cut the meeting short after I had advised him that a satellite town <i>might</i>, in my opinion, be possible in the Mmamashia area – he just had to negotiate with the Kgatleng Council (and Chris Fleetwood-Bird who had the same idea and had started to by some land in that area). But DM didn’t want a change the already expensive drawings. A sad story for me as a town planner, indeed.</span></div><br />
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</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">However YS became furious due to my proposal to DM and I was about to be sent home for this – I could stay probably because of the urgency of Gab West and by time being “domesticated” according to DM.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I was, however, called to an interrogation, probably with the PS (can’t find any note about it in my diary) and told that I shouldn’t have given DM a finger about a “satellite town” – a finger I have been sucking ever since then. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">So it goes when policy, politics and forward planning are misunderstood, neglected and not adhered to. Other farm owners in Mokolodi, Notwane, Gaborone North and Tlokweng South were/are more careful and are now making necessary deals with authorities. More of “let time be ripe”. That’s how it works in a steadfast bureaucra<b><i>z</i></b>y.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Now we have to support the Phakalane development as <i>an approved fact</i> – it has become an essential part of our City – SSK never noticed (in the 70-ies) that the upper classes in Sweden had already found their favourite “suburbs”, that government supported with trams and railways that never became economically “balanced”. But the well-to-do were very essential for the running of the country – so it is here, too, even if Marx might rotate in his grave. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Hence, we must accept this fact, although it’s still not too late for Phakalane to accept that we will, sooner or later, create a satellite to Gaborone City at the Mmamashia Junction. Phakalane has to become more than a sprawling suburb with bedrooms and sleeping places for people working in the City. It must be part of a <i>satellite town</i>, as independent as possible.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Discuss and negotiate, make a deal with the owners of Gaborone North, Ruretse and the Kgatleng Council <i>and</i> the City Council– my last advice in this matter! Just the same as my first advice in 1979, by the way. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">And my firm belief in the future for Greater Gaborone – satellite towns – will be further discussed in this column.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Bureaucratic Stairs<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">M C Escher 1960<o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr>
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</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Jan Wareus</span></div>Jan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5120210650085471884.post-41131903144821981282012-05-30T14:40:00.004-07:002013-03-13T11:27:54.082-07:00Too Many Cooks - Bad Cooking<div class="MsoNormal">
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">For a start, I have to reply to a comment – How do I think that <i>we</i>, tied up by a SACU treaty, can produce our own construction material to competitive costs?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Well, I’m not a dormant politician but as far as I know, it is quite possible that Botswana exempt VAT from local products. That would be a good start, I think.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">So, I’m still awaiting my sticker for the car from Boidus - BOTSWANA MUST SECURE A PRODUCTION OF BUILDING MATERIALS OF ITS OWN!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">There have been some articles in our papers about traffic chaos and lack of landmarks in the City. To this I will now dedicate this column and I do not separate the two issues, in fact, I think they are just two sides of the same coin. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Arriving here in January 1979, I became fascinated by the then small Garden City that had just taken a step over the Segoditsane River to Broadhurst and expected further growth to the west of the railway – the reason for my recruitment, actually.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was so interested of the planning background for Gaborone that I went to the National Archives to find some early planning documents. The librarian was very astonished to see the first planner ever visiting him.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I’ve got the approved or accepted layout for Gaborone from him. And that’s more or less exactly what you can see in the old part of the City today. But also an early alternative that convinced me that the used “garden city” concept wasn’t just a mere idea amongst others. I have a copy of this early alternative below. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA">Here you find all the significant conceptual features for a classical garden city - neighbourhood units, curved streets/roads, schools and shops in the middle possible to reach by foot within acceptable distance (1/4 of a mile=ab. 400 m) and vehicular roads with roundabouts (for slow and easy moving traffic).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA">All this was accentuated in the final, implemented layout (plus more roundabouts). In 1979 all was still functioning well and actually the newly constructed Gaborone was a <i>landmark</i> in itself! Many visitors convinced me of that and I found no reason to change “planning attitude” for the Gab West planning. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Consequently, Gab West can be characterized by the neighbourhood units and curved streets/roads and the first phases by the schools and shops centrally located and, naturally, a traffic system based on roundabouts (to keep up with the then admired landmark mage and proper function).</div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA">But for the schools, something happened during the detailed planning period.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA">It can probably be illustrated by the pictures below from Jwaneng (</span><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;">planned 1977-1979</span><span lang="EN-ZA">) and a phase of Gab West (</span><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;">planned late 1988</span><span lang="EN-ZA">). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;">Pic 2 - Jwaneng and Pic 3 -Gab West<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA">Looking at the Jwaneng neighbourhood portion we see that the Setswana Medium School is very central in the “hood”, not easily reached by car but within easy reach for walking children. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA">In Gaborone West the schools have moved closer to secondary roads to become more easily reached by cars. The reason – educational policy had changed and many school sites were allocated to private developers for English Medium Schools. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA">There was no announced policy shift from the Ministry of Education but planners adapted to what had become the song of the day – and tried to save the “hood” from disturbing traffic. For Secondary Schools, even more attractive to private developers, the norm was to site them close to Primary Roads for easy access. However, such roads were often in the hands of Roads Department (being gazetted) and they were most often denied direct access e.g. Rainbow and Westwood schools.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA">But the traffic disaster is partly due to this privatization of schools that could not be foreseen at the planning stage. When their number became significant, and every second private car in mornings had to deliver children to their private schools, a kind of <i>coupe de grace</i> was given to the traffic situation in Gabs. Enhancing this was naturally the (to planners) unforeseen support by banks, council and government to private car ownership. So we now have a great number of bank-owned cars with children taken to schools every morning. So much that the Director of Roads, supported by Council and elected MP’s seems obliged to deconstruct the original roundabouts and create a small Los Angeles.<i> </i>That, as we all have experienced, works even worse than the now deconstructed previous system.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA">For more reading about this I recommend the interviews with Luc van der Casteele in Sunday Standards (two so far and more promised). Excellent analysis of the current, “improved” traffic system!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">That, as well as the school concept, has become modern “planning disasters”. I’m mentioning this as I, in year 2000, was invited to UB to talk about “The Problems of Urban and Regional Planning in Botswana” and wrote a paper about “Planning Disasters in Botswana” instead. Basing this on the then acute Mogoditshane squatting and subsequent “yellow monsters” as well as the so </span>called Urban Standards (presented by DTRP totally void of any research and earlier standards). We are coming back to these historical events if you are interested.<br />
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<span lang="EN-ZA">So, I guess I’m back to “Planning Disasters in Botswana” with this column.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-ZA">There are more of disasters, though. Next column will be dedicated to an ever ongoing bureaucratic belittle of a grand scheme of improving the environment of Gaborone. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Jan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5120210650085471884.post-88042117092783962012-04-23T05:37:00.000-07:002012-04-23T05:37:59.978-07:00It ain't necessarily so (Miles Davis version)<div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">This time I will touch upon a few different but in my view connected matters – first...<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">As we all know, imported goods are unnecessarily expensive here due to transport costs. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">And as I have argued so far in my writings, transport costs will escalate very much in the future.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">This is due to the oil bubble bursting. The oil producing countries know very well that they have a finite product and the last drops will be expensive – and they want to keep the last barrels for themselves. Furthermore, it is confusing to see that the distributors (Exxon, Mobile, BP, Shell et al) seemingly have a deep stance in the crude oil production, too </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">– covering the whole line from extracting to the deliverance.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">That’s obviously what happens on a free, unregulated market!</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I don’t understand the record profits they have just now if this isn’t the explanation.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">So the unregulated, free trade market is making record profits of the very basic necessity for the GDP growth, as we know it so far – in fact killing it. And consequently killing all kinds of fumbling small industrialization attempts for the developing countries – where we belong.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> <span lang="EN-ZA">Consequently, we have to do what the now industrialized countries once did. Start local production and protect it from unfair competition. That was actually the basis for the so called Bretton Woods Concept! <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">We must have a construction material production of our own and cut the ever escalating transport costs. As well as putting more people into production!</span> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">As a matter of fact – the same goes for food production and electricity. We have realized this, now, and hopefully we will soon have the house in order.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Outstanding </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">examples </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">are </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">diamond sorting and polishing, glass manufacturing and more. We have a brick factory that cannot compete with our neighbour in the south, so some kind of protection is needed (as it is for eggs, chicken and poultry and now and then, tomatoes, too).</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Obviously our government is aware of the modern economical follies as some kind of anti-neoliberal concepts are in use despite the propaganda from World Bank, IMF and WTO with its “tamed” economists from the Chicago School of Economics.</span> <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In this situation we have to strongly convince ourselves and possible investors that we locally have to secure a construction industry of our own as I indicated in last column.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I leave the rest of arguing to the new generation of “dissident” economists that now and then are writing intelligible in our papers or you can find on the Web. GS Mantowe mentioned some in his latest column that I know you read. On my part I recommend you to read Herman Daly (professor in environmental science and former World Bank expert – see Daly News on Google). He knows a great deal about our future!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Now another topic that will lead to a third one and I find them being connected.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In my bookshelf I have “Ralph Erskine – Architect” (Byggforlaget, Stockholm 1990), and I want to quote some lines in the following:</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Erskine often spoke to guests at international congresses as well to students and fellow architects. In such a company his role was to warn of the risks of following trends and temporary whims – in his view, “postmodernism is a harlot touting flashy packaging for capitalism”. He also often spoke of the need to create mixed-use communities of buildings in harmony with one another. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">For him beauty was not necessarily what was elegant – he said that “God created not just the speedy elegant gazelle but also the pig. Just like the pig, slightly clumsy, thick buildings can be beautiful provided they terminate with a neat flourish”.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">And now, how to illustrate some of the more than 200 projects in RE’s diary? And suddenly it has become obvious how to do it...</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Mmegi 02 March 2012 has an article by Gothataone Moeng about the often mentioned “lack of landmarks” in Gaborone. A few professional architects are mentioned and quoted, among them Leta Mosienyane and Nick Njarange. They complain, bitterly!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">But neither of them is pointing the finger to where it should be pointing – to the <i>architects</i>! They seem to be missing some organization outside the architectural field that should be responsible. But there is no other than the architects that should be accused of the ignorance for the missing beauty of our capital, in my opinion.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">They are the ones designing new buildings with no connection to other buildings. Facing different directions, being high, medium or low, according to Killion Mokwete, also interviewed. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Are these “prominent” architects asking for help by DTRP, Town Councils or what?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Why can’t the architectural profession come up with an “aesthetical and concurrence board” similar to what they have in Paris, London and New York (even Stockholm, by the way)? Why do they ask to be spoon fed with regulations? Haven’t they the professional background to solve the problem they are complaining about? Isn’t it a fight on “home grounds”?</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Well, I’m pessimistic. I don’t think they are willing to take the responsibility to come up with a city of some kind of coherent beauty. They prefer the masquerade – the fancy dress party and then point the finger somewhere else! They all tried their own “landmark” and failed due to lack of co-operation.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">So, finally, let me introduce to you an Erskine landmark project (done in collaboration with his old architect friends – a normal working condition for him) now built in Stockholm - the Wasa Terminal.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In brief, it is a covering a large part of the Central Station and opening up an enormous amount of bus, office, and commercial space on what was earlier supposed to be an impediment, a “fault line” in the City, like the one we have. The commercial success was enormous and something similar can be made in Gaborone, I’m sure.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In earlier articles and in other papers, I have mentioned this to no avail. The double spur from New Naledi to Segoditshane Valley must be dug down. No problem! The goods yard moved outside the immediate urban area. And all of a sudden we have an enormous area that could be opened for development! As well as connecting Gab West with Gab East – what a relief for pedestrians! And we will have a prestigious terminal for our long haul busses and spur based commuting, too. (Fortunately, we already have a terminal for the hundreds of kombi’s we have to live with for years, if I understand the situation right.)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Furthermore, it is obvious to me that Botswana Railways, the major landowner in the area, nowadays is very much interested in making money from real estate.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">And, with collaboration between the architects, the possible “landmark” that is wanted, will hopefully be possible. But organize yourself and work together. Maybe you should ask for a competition among selected consortiums (it’s a too big project for any existing firm of today). Maybe it could result in something as impressive as the proposal by SHoP Architects for the Innovation Hub.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
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</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">And act while it is still money around for this kind of projects. I wish you luck! Below I will give you an idea how RE and his friends made it in Stockholm (see pic). And note, the necessary glass-covered, indoor concept, there, could here become a carbon-friendly shaded area, here.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
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</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaTB432bp-gseHyGFNc_QHMOW1o1pJ8XlkYz3pgpKPewGt1DNXbA9ZS0U5GhlLRdkg5cMRBR56I_tgBB9fGq5ty4vyLVYrh8D0dzelT8yvR3LVg7tpf-SQyyRa9G48VlHJgJ9JkPgYjac/s1600/glass2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaTB432bp-gseHyGFNc_QHMOW1o1pJ8XlkYz3pgpKPewGt1DNXbA9ZS0U5GhlLRdkg5cMRBR56I_tgBB9fGq5ty4vyLVYrh8D0dzelT8yvR3LVg7tpf-SQyyRa9G48VlHJgJ9JkPgYjac/s640/glass2.jpg" width="451" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Pic of Wasa Terminal in Central Stockholm</span><span style="font-size: small;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></div><br />
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</span></div>Jan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5120210650085471884.post-52777882853665507542012-04-23T05:21:00.000-07:002012-04-23T05:21:03.383-07:00Blues for Pablo (Miles Davis)<div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I must start by welcome Mr G S Manowe (GSM) to Boidus and his column “Going Green”.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I felt a bit uneasy with the thought that I had to go into “the Green Fields”, as I have difficulties to differ from wizard-ism and plain-talk pragmatism. But I’m sure that that GSM doesn’t have this problem, being a senior architect with many years experience.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">As he mentioned in his writing in the February issue, 40 % of the world’s total energy demand and close to 70 % of the total electricity consumption goes to the building sector, as well as 65 % of the worlds waste.</span> <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">These are figures that should make us in the architectural and planning fields a bit uneasy, to say the least. The situation is precarious:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">We all in the development professions have without much intelligence (but it has been warnings), been picking the easy reached, low hanging fruits for more than two centuries of industrialization. And, gee, what a boom – for a few! But now we have to face a situation when the fruits are not so easy to reach and we have to pay a price we never considered before. That’s the energy or peak oil bubble! There is still energy/oil there but to a price we never could imagine (if we didn’t read the warnings). If we are careful in the use of the remaining resources, we might have time to adjust peacefully. But time is slipping and soon it’s too late to adjust in some kind of order. In principle, that’s what I have been saying so far in my Boidus columns.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">We here in Botswana have, in my opinion, a quite unique situation. Most of our building material used today is imported and we must pay heavily for transportation. So it has been for many years and no one has said with <u>emphasis</u> – <i>BOTSWANA MUST SECURE A PRODUCTION OF BUILDING MATERIALS OF ITS OWN</i>! <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">We have all the needed resources and hopefully an energy situation that other countries will envy within short (based on our own recourses, too). The problem, as far as I can see, is that we have <i>not</i> created a local and modern self-sufficient building tradition – we are thoughtlessly copying the so called developed countries that are soon in the gutter. Sky-scrapers, glass, aluminium, steel and more of highly embodied energy stuff, as I indicated in a previous blog, are the theme of the day – imitating the western model.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Consequently, I think we architects and town planners have to study design and building against the situation of less energy abundance. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">And how to handle such a situation of “less abundance” was the reason for me to mention Alvar Aalto and the situation in Finland after WW2. Amazing what kind of art can come out from such conditions, isn’t it?<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I guess there is more to say about Alvar Aalto - interviewed, he was always sparing his words – the quiet creator of art that talked its own language! However, in an inspired situation, he spoke. For instance:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">“Architecture has often in these days been compared to science and its methods have been endeavoured to become more “scientific”. Even to become a science by itself by including more of complex mathematics. But it is no science – it is a synthetic process, a conglomeration of thousands of important human functions and will be so to the end of humans” </span></i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">(Nov 1940).<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Further – “If architecture will have a deeper human value, it must primarily sort out the economical side of it” – and this gives me a point in this discussion.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">This “economical side of it” is changing rapidly just now. All imported goods, are excessively expensive due to escalating transport costs. This is not a good basis for a sustainable construction industry in Botswana.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">As we have most of the needed raw materials available, and soon a self sufficient power/electricity production, we have to localize the production of building materials. And use less of high embodied energy materials – more of traditional building materials. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">It was interesting to read Mr Mokwete’s presentation of his project in Maitengwe in the latest issue of Boidus Focus, although I don’t think that vernacular design is the <i>only</i> concept for the future. But the project clearly shows that simple, traditional materials still are in use and there are skilled builders that can handle them, still. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The Maitengwe project also indicates that traditional thatching grass still is available and will guarantee a healthy indoor climate. But it is a material that is hard to find to decent prices these days as it must be collected from nature.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Now I happen to know that thatching grass can be commercially grown and harvested like in SA and we currently have to buy our thatch from there to a high price. But this is not necessary. A few hundred small farmers here could plant and grow it and provide for a growing market here. Maybe, we should start with some small project like Maitengwe and then go on with more substantial, long lasting and reusable building materials?<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">But there is obviously a long way to go for the use of traditional materials and constructions. To me, it looks like the regulations we have are deliberately cutting out the use of traditional materials, today. I need help from practising architects and designers to clear this issue – please, let me know the situation with all kinds of examples you can pinpoint!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I know that the Lobatse Clay Works haven’t become a success – but I haven’t seen the real reasons why, yet. A thorough analysis of this project must be made – maybe it needed some kind of protected market as most of industrial projects in smaller countries need. But this is nowadays totally ignored by the neo-liberal economy preached by IMT, World Bank and other Washington Consensus organisations. As if the protected market wasn’t the prerogative for western development, once upon a time!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">There are many aspects to discuss on this issue of “securing a production of our own” and I will be back on these aspects in later blogs. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">To conclude this one, I will be quoting Ralph Erskine from his lecture at the Royal Society of Arts in 1982:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">“Energy is a valuable but not inexhaustible and often much polluting resource. Buildings consequently must be simple and well insulated in both hot and cold climates. The size of windows must be restricted. Glass architecture, often considered to be beautiful, must be regarded as a symbol for a naive, lavish and irresponsible culture. A new and well thought-out, responsible architecture must be worked out.”</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">And this has very much to do with “Going Green”, I assume.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">May I suggest that Boidus Focus put a small sum into the printing of a car-sticker for me and my friends? If you read this, you know what it should say!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Pablo Casals once said : "<i>Situation is hopeless- lets take another step.</i>"</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
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</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><i>As it has been noted by some readers, my “homepage” on the Web isn’t known to all of you. If you google <<a href="http://janwareus.blogspot.com/">janwareus.blogspot.com</a>> you find the start of it with some essays on Sowa Town (now close to a 20 year celebration) and background to this project. More will come if the Web server functiosn more than every second day and the power cuts will be for more places than Gabane, just.</i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><i><br />
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</i></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPdwA7ke4WeMz8wbYap8z_GHJTnNCaU3GQibD_3aFASWPemQdEW-EHxDdmKvP6YZhOEbmk7fzPLUPiE-rulXwR3bUEuqrMdWip0Fb6CBVMgfFDIEokswqRJXvSXpYa5b2A_qevFCNX4wo/s1600/house2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="310" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPdwA7ke4WeMz8wbYap8z_GHJTnNCaU3GQibD_3aFASWPemQdEW-EHxDdmKvP6YZhOEbmk7fzPLUPiE-rulXwR3bUEuqrMdWip0Fb6CBVMgfFDIEokswqRJXvSXpYa5b2A_qevFCNX4wo/s400/house2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><i><br />
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</i></span></div>Jan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5120210650085471884.post-83467945462675782812012-04-17T04:29:00.002-07:002012-04-17T04:43:47.694-07:00Now’s the Time -(Charlie Parker song from 1952)<div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">What I have indicated so far about the future is well known for most planners and architects but we seem to have some “commercial” blinders on. We must ask ourselves – <i>Are we advising clients and decision-makers the right things? <o:p></o:p></i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i><br />
</i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Clearly not - so where do we go from here?<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">Well – let’s have a look at some tables from the Canadian Architects blog. We start with “Measures of Sustainability – embodied energy” – the basis for trying to be energy sufficient – the “embodied energy” in the building materials used and recommended by architects is important. Follows here:</span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivMQE3UUegxSLwA47wtrtF1Vtbc550H0L1hPAVBRzqiqO_oBrTyX0AewpuoLCJYxah1mGk7Pvgb46JTpr-TNY3Kmk7fClTj0ya7lIYmdWqh19S5LARRzcuGu2DtPW7wMIO7OzHNk36KBk/s1600/5pic.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="512" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivMQE3UUegxSLwA47wtrtF1Vtbc550H0L1hPAVBRzqiqO_oBrTyX0AewpuoLCJYxah1mGk7Pvgb46JTpr-TNY3Kmk7fClTj0ya7lIYmdWqh19S5LARRzcuGu2DtPW7wMIO7OzHNk36KBk/s640/5pic.png" width="640" /></a></div><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">As can be seen – architects here are mostly preferring steel, aluminium, glass and other materials that are on the top/bottom of the “embodied energy” list. Why? Is it just that the well-known “icons” used it frequently in the past? Should it be the same today – they would certainly not have done that (remember Alvar Aalto).<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">And those materials, by necessity seemingly, give us high-rise buildings in need air-cons, lifts etc - in a country that already is on her back because of power breaks and badly planned supply – and as we know, power will be severely more expensive in the future if even a bit more reliable some doesn’t think so, by the way!<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">It should also be noted that the table is “Canadian” – the transport factor is consequently less than for Botswana!<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">How do we handle this knowledge in a world of less abundance of cheap energy?<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">Firstly, we have to encourage local production of building materials – we have all raw materials needed for that! Secondly, we have to design buildings that are not inherently in need of excessive energy for longevity – including normal maintenance. The former resident architect Ian Marshall once indicated that for us. (And Boidus has an interesting article by IM that I hope they will print one day.) <o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">He made some ground clearing designs for UB and Government in the 80-ies that are in good shape (and good looking) still!<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">Now we have to look into the next important design issue for architects – Measures of Sustainability (incl. operating energy). These are highly important factors for sustainable design but unfortunately impossible to make an abridged presentation of here – we have to advice the interested architect to go to the sources – <span lang="EN-ZA"><a href="http://www.canadianarchitect.com/asf/perspectives_sustainability"><i>http://www.canadianarchitect.com/asf/perspectives_sustainability</i></a></span>.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">The conclusion of that paper reads as follows:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<div class="MsoNormal"><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;">“Although both energy use and greenhouse gas emissions increased in Canada between 1990 and 1999, the increase would have been much greater if not for improvements in energy efficiency. As a result of this progress, Canadians are saving about $5 billion per year in energy costs, and greenhouse gas emissions are five percent below what they would otherwise have been.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;">Viewed from the perspective of national debt, operating energy is a vital indicator of sustainability.”<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA">Yes – so much for architectural design and sustainability! Let’s go to town planning.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA">For you to understand – I must confess the following:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA">I’m an architect from Sweden (exam from 1965) – totally against the bureaucratic dictatorship of planning regulations! Town planning was in my learning time quite subordinate to <i>the art of architecture and building</i>. In my mind, so it should be – putting a lot of responsibility upon architects. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA">And here we are – a situation when “town planners” are making up plans for 2025 and more, extrapolating 1995 trends into 2025!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA">In my answer book, I have the concepts we used we used in Stockholm City Planning Department - we made “provisional plans” and started a discussion with the architects appointed for the jobs. Not until an agreement was reached, the plan was taken for approval!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA">The plans were indicative until the architects were in agreement. And this attitude goes well with a future of “less abundance” and more or less zero growth.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA">So I see so called specialized town planners unnecessary – a revival of the old academic teaching concept of architects will do. The “technical and rational” town planning concept is a part of the site planning for the architect – as it has been for centuries prior to the neo-liberal concept of putting harness onto architects. Seems hard as an opinion but nevertheless true! The economical pundits never liked the “jack-of-all-trades” - the architects. Or any intellectuals, by the way!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA">However, here we are, we so called town planners, for some time, still.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA">What can we do in a situation of no economical growth and less energy?<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA">Well, let’s be happy we are not in the US! For more than 50 yrs the so called “suburban concept” has been implemented and now looks like a dead end. No way out except by turning around 180 degrees, and money will not be available for such a turn. So, they must find a way of getting services and jobs within walking distance for the people with no choice!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA">The suburb will be there for generations as the infrastructure was expensive and there are very few dollars in the future. US planners have serious problems when trying to “recycle” their suburbs, indeed. But it is possible, I think.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA">For them and us the problem will be <i>Public Transport</i>. And finding a changed school system as – no private schools scattered all over town – local schools, instead – a challenge for the authorities! Schools and services within walking distances!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA">As I understand, it is possible here in our towns and settlements, but, as I said – a revised (esp. educational planning policy) is needed. We must plan what we can implement in the near future. And leave some pointers, arrows, whatever for the long term unknown future. The days of the 25 yr planning period are gone – totally unknown to us (as it has been for many yrs to the ones who read reports from various energy authorities).<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA">I have been writing about the importance of a change in the transport and road system for yrs, now. And finally I find a learned friend, Jayson Sechele – listen to his advice, if you don’t believe me! That’s how things should be handled. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">Let’s start the discussion, now. It’s soon too late!</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA"><br />
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</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA"> (Continuation > click HERE to read <o:p></o:p></span></div>Jan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5120210650085471884.post-53116574846404116722012-04-17T04:00:00.003-07:002012-04-17T04:46:11.726-07:00Future Ain’t What It Used to Be<div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">It is interesting to note that, historically, empires are born, grow and contract , almost disappear, except for some ruins. But mostly leaving some cultural achievements, even writings, to us some steps behind.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">For instance, Babylon (the Eufrat, Tigris empire - what’s now Iraq), ancient Egypt (the pharaoh land), old Greece and Rome collapsed. Caused by some kind of hubris or ignorance of environmental restrictions and consequent destruction of the basis for their sustainability. They depleted their resources and civilizations built on limited resources could/cannot survive.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">But they left a tremendous cultural inheritance to us.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">What are </span><i style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">we</i><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> leaving behind for future generations – that’s something to think about but I leave the question for now. However, it will hardly be our architecture and organization of communities – our town planning! We seriously have to look into more sustainable alternatives!</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">How do we adopt to a decrease in energy supply and consequent drop in economy growth? How do we keep the “necessities” we are used to in the post-industrial years – our current “lifestyle”? Our SUV’s, limousines, and weekend trips to the village and weekend houses? How do we get to our jobs and schools when fuel is scarce and expensive?</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Well, in a way we are lucky! We haven’t yet totally adopted and mimicked the western countries, the so called “developed” ones. This will be one of my points in following writings.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I will also try and pose a few questions and hints with regards to our profession as architects and town planners. It’s based on my experience from our 3</span><sup style="line-height: 115%;">rd</sup><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> world country – Botswana – and I am happy I am here in the days to come. But first some recap of the current situation:</span> <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">ExxonMobil presents its outlooks until 2030 on website <<i>exxonmobil.com/ energyoutlook</i>> and some of the findings regarding future fuel deficit are:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA"></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">One of the most important “fuels” of all is energy efficiency;<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Technology is essential on all fronts.</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;">T The seriousness of ExxonMobil’s comments is underpinned by following graph from Roy E Anderson’s article in <</span><i style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;">Energy Bulletin.net</i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;">> “When Oil and Gas Are Depleted” (2011/08/02):</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin-left: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">When reading this graph, it should be noted that Roy Anderson is one of the more “optimistic” forecasters. The depletion of energy resources is steady but spread over a 75 yr period. Many writers think the period is shorter and might be very violent as for Iraq and Libya.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin-left: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin-left: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The “ever growing need” of 1.5% a year is indicated and the completely new energy situation and the end of our small children’s life is evident. It is back to 1850 in fact! But it gives us some time to come up with Plan B, the plan we neglected to come up with 50 yrs ago when the situation now was clearly foreseen. But surely it means a different lifestyle – however, some writers think this might become an increase of life quality instead.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin-left: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin-left: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">What will be the major problems we have to resolve?<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin-left: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin-left: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">According to Roy E Anderson some problems for the 10 billion people at end of the century will be: (<i>quote</i>)<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; margin-left: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-ZA"></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Feed them without nitrogen fertilizers and bulk transport<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Cloth them with only natural fibres<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">House them without oil or gas heat<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Sustain and satisfy millions of unemployed<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Provide water in a changed environment<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Build structures without oil and gas to harvest energy from renewable sources<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Provide adequate information re. recording, processing and distribution of what we know today<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;"><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="text-indent: -18pt;"></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><i>And these problems and others must be solved within the lifetime of a person born today.</i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> (<i>end quote</i>)<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The last problem he mentions is very interesting. Information today is often in computers and networks based on chips and cell phones.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The manufacture of computers and cell phones as well as the running of them is also very energy and resource consuming, unfortunately, apart from being a thorn in the flesh for many rulers. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">It is hardly conceivable that the means to read information on chips will survive for many future generations – where are the necessary batteries, for instance? We’ve already loosed the skill to design “by hand” – all architects/town planners today are in some kind of CAD computer programme. My old professor said – you lose your “handwriting” and you’ve lost your skill!</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">But it is our obligation to insure that the knowledge we gain of our situation is preserved and available for our followers just as was done by past </span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">civilizations</span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Something to think about until next time!<o:p></o:p></span></div><br />
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<br />
(Continuation > click <a href="http://jawaplaintalk.blogspot.se/2012/04/nows-time.html">HERE</a> to read <span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"><i><b>Now’s the Time</b>)</i></span><br />
<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div>Jan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5120210650085471884.post-31136720303632573662012-04-17T03:32:00.011-07:002012-04-17T10:13:36.128-07:00What can we learn from our predecessors?<div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Many worried people today are hoping for alternative energy sources. But a traditionalist like me is pessimistic about the future and optimistic about the past.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Right now we are exploring wind power in large so called “farms” around shores and islands all over Europe, mainly. There are also so called bio-fuel but we know that this is merely food deficiency at the other end. Today we know that these alternatives are just marginal to the old “free flowing oil” and coal. The technology behind is extremely expensive and can cover for just between 1- 2 % of current demand <i>and </i>will need a lot of our conventional energy (oil and coal) for maintenance and function.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">So – is the party over? Maybe not quite but let’s start brain-storming about a world of less abundance and its impact on construction and planning here in Botswana.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">We start with finding out what architects were forced to consider in time of crisis e.g. reconstruction after WW2 in Europe.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Finland comes to my mind – a country that came out from the WW2 on the wrong side and was boycotted from the various aids at the time. Thus completely void of steel for reinforcement of concrete, plastics and the like and other materials on the “right” and supported side (West).<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Architects in Finland had to use the local materials – brick and wood predominantly.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">And became masters in using it in new configurations. And had to keep buildings to a scale and height that was possible. Hence an architectural marvel happened – Alvar Aalto and his designs! He is the modern master of building in bricks and using wooden structures together with it!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">This became his “functionalism” but is called “organic building” by the adoring pundits of today. We must learn from his example in a world of less abundance!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Another famous architect of a more voluntary “less abundant” kind is Ralph Erskine. His buildings (and town plans) are also “organic” – as grown out of the ground. For him, his attitude was not unavailability of modern materials. Rather a self imposed restriction due to his Quaker background – a kind of environmental attitude – he managed for instance to build a large student facility with library, dining hall, sports centre in a beautiful meadow full of century old oak trees without knocking down a single one (Stockholm University)! Hope I can show you some pics one day.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">As architects and planners you are familiar with these icons and I don’t have to be long-winded. They both bow to nature and teach us to live and build with nature. Believe me – we have first class examples for our future dealing with a world of less abundance!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Our problems will most certainly be not so much possible design principles as convincing our clients what must be done. And the number of clients will also be less abundant – a situation we must learn to live with for the future, unfortunately. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">This will mean a lot for the university and architect’s studios. We better prepare for a widening of our responsibility with more concentration on environmental issues, I guess. We will have a lot of problems created by the economy and industrialization that have been running without harness for long. But the “Jack of all trades” label we have might be useful for us.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I will go on with this issue of the architects and townplanners in the future in coming writing, if you don’t mind.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I will end with a memory of my first meeting with Alvar Aalto:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9xRxj4VY0jPNpdSuaLpgElFmzfzYDGf5m2hyphenhyphen4gXmyh62ekUqTreZf-6nFyy2FLP5f04Q0KtRvXLQxNcVvcBkyNXRxZDgF26I6aBi5x_diX9CY5AMAqNe3lJI8xNuZTCNORuDlgxtvsBg/s1600/alvar.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9xRxj4VY0jPNpdSuaLpgElFmzfzYDGf5m2hyphenhyphen4gXmyh62ekUqTreZf-6nFyy2FLP5f04Q0KtRvXLQxNcVvcBkyNXRxZDgF26I6aBi5x_diX9CY5AMAqNe3lJI8xNuZTCNORuDlgxtvsBg/s400/alvar.png" width="307" /></a><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">At a study tour to Finland in 1993, some students (me included) were invited to meet the icon AA at his office outside Helsinki. Our prof Gunnar Hoving, was schoolmate to AA in the early 20-ies. We met AA dressed in pyjama and gown at 11oo in the morning after he, as usual, had spent his night with a project.</span><br />
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</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">“</span><i style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Hoho–Gunnar, some more Arrrkkitects to be?”</i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">“Well, my boys (looking sternly at our oldest one – 42yrs old) and little Lady (looking at a scared 19 yrs old girl among us) – you are going to be Arrrkkitects? </span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
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<i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">But times are wrong! Gunnar and I were lucky – the party’s over now! You might be fine draftsmen for some time but the INDUSTRIALISM you are working for is </span></i><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">committing suicide!”</span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><span style="line-height: 14px;"><i><br />
</i></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">He didn’t mention oil and resources, then – but he meant that “development” was outside reach from governments and commoners/voters. In the hand of a few feudal “kings”! This we heard from AA who was known as being conservative!!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Of course he asked some trusted staff to show us his latest “organic” designs, meanwhile himself and Gunnar had a quick glass of some kind.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">He never discussed his own creations – “<i>you see what you see and nothing is hidden, but maybe, implicit – if you see what I mean</i>”!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">As I said- this was in 1963! But the future was already evident by then.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">So “implicitism” was born to me and the only -<i>ism </i>among architects I accept but, naturally, never understand fully. The same you see in Erskine’s and F L Wright’s works or any other fine Architect’s creations – art and metaphysics in holy merger</span><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">!<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 14px;">(Continuation > click <a href="http://jawaplaintalk.blogspot.se/2012/04/future-aint-what-it-used-to-be.html">HERE</a> to read </span><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"><i><b>Future Ain’t What It Used to Be</b><span style="font-size: small;">)</span></i></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal"><u><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></u></div><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div>Jan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5120210650085471884.post-45029460292169484172012-04-17T02:41:00.002-07:002012-04-17T04:47:21.754-07:00How Fast Are Things Falling Apart<div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">To be honest, there are disagreements among energy and economic scholars about <i>the pace </i>of the breakdown of the over-industrialized era (and its dependence on cheap energy) but not the inevitable results. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">There simply won’t be money enough to pay for further growth – nationally and individually! Countries burden by too many debts will go bankrupt and who will bail nations out in the long run – when our tax money is depleted?<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The time margins now discussed are, however, just one decade, for some scholars just one or two years, but we are facing it. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">And what we build and construct <i>now</i> has a lifespan (on paper) for more than 50 years! All development plans I have been involved in, talk about a 25 years lifespan. So called “blind” futurology (<i>rather with blinkers</i>) – extrapolating unsustainable trends into the future! We should know better...<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Why am I writing about a bleak future? Well, having survived a number of smaller bursts, I have to prepare myself and my colleagues for what’s coming – it will be worse and we in the profession must prepare!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Let me for short give you some quotations from my internet sources:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><i style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Massive worldwide economic growth of the past two centuries was enabled by the newfound ability to exploit cheap, abundant energy of (finite) fossil fuels – Heinberg </span></i><i style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">(www. post carbon institute)</span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><i style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><i style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The oil world has changed – and this means a power shock to the energy system, coinciding with a seismic shift in the world’s economic and financial systems – Heinberg</span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><i style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">If the oil stops flowing in recent quantities, global trade as we know it grinds to a standstill – Heinberg<o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Unfortunately, there is a desire to hope for the best but we have to prepare for the worst – Hugh-Smith </span></i><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">(<a href="http://www.oftwominds.com/">www.oftwominds.com</a>)</span></i><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Growth depends on energy but we are learned that it solely depends on capital, production and labour – forgetting resources –Martenson </span></i><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">(chrismartenson.com)</span></i><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><br />
</div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Indeed - <i>Thing’s ain’t what they used to be</i>!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">A few voices among many on the net! Others are “<i>Chomsky.info</i>” and John Michael Greer on “<i><a href="http://www.the%20archdruid%20report/">www.The Archdruid Report</a></i>” – read them!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Yes, there are some whistle blowers! Seldom any official, government based reports, though. No, actually, there are even a few such ones but never quoted in the papers, as media today are “privatized” and reluctant to upset us. They are more for scandals around “the dolls in their strings”!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">BUT – this year the International Energy Agency (IEA), the adviser to both OPEC and about 23 major governments around the world, had to admit:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">“Crude oil output reaches an undulating plateau of around 68-69 mb/d </span></i><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">(million barrels per day) </span></i><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">by 2020, but never regains its all-time peak of 70 mb/d reached in 2006”</span></i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> – So it goes and IEA has for many years tried the best to keep consumers and nations sleeping nice, a fact according to whistle blowers from IEA.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Following graph is the “most optimistic scenario” for the coming years from IEA – note that it is basing the outlook on the fact that OPEC, <i>the owners of the oil</i>, will cut down their own use to a high degree – is that why Western countries are implementing the Carter Doctrine (securing oil for the West – Libya, Egypt, Iraq and Iran are OPEC members).<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><br />
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</div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">So, yes, its pretty much expected that China and India, et al., will increasing their consumption by rates much (much) higher than 0.5%, which means, logically, that some other countries will have to consume at negative rates in order for the equation to balance.</span></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">And this is exactly what the IEA has modeled and proposed: </span></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdbjdudmGaMA3pK-mM2q-MRDOjb7zePsBC27cb-FtnQ18Cbd7qN7Igaj5nqCGtdU4m0GrVqRG2nCjHWfXJyOWdkkVe-Jyokk7CtnOrn22ZP3vXFPWt1FE09uvkYi3Uo6JBjb1TpZgDMas/s1600/pic.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="412" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdbjdudmGaMA3pK-mM2q-MRDOjb7zePsBC27cb-FtnQ18Cbd7qN7Igaj5nqCGtdU4m0GrVqRG2nCjHWfXJyOWdkkVe-Jyokk7CtnOrn22ZP3vXFPWt1FE09uvkYi3Uo6JBjb1TpZgDMas/s640/pic.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><br />
</span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihK8U8qHVMy47m-XDw-P9N77BG508xHmX3i1PdYcVNQuhmn0bcn98hwYMvRKfdeZjgZyIZ4LCAfQMVjPcsTg04x3SDFrfHna6MxHd-Nab6TIMZEDq1MVGiPleFSkY-Mf9GuzUXh7Lp1p4/s1600/words.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihK8U8qHVMy47m-XDw-P9N77BG508xHmX3i1PdYcVNQuhmn0bcn98hwYMvRKfdeZjgZyIZ4LCAfQMVjPcsTg04x3SDFrfHna6MxHd-Nab6TIMZEDq1MVGiPleFSkY-Mf9GuzUXh7Lp1p4/s1600/words.png" /></a></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
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</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">And, honestly, our current global free trade system needs an increase to more than 90 mb/d in the next yrs to keep the <i>current</i> (2010) growth.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">So, why do I bother to mention this? I feel that - <i>Now’s the time</i> – to<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">adjust to new facts.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">I’m not a self-torturer – but I want to know what’s behind the bend of the road! How can we as architects and town planners prepare for an era of scaling down growth expectations and save energy?<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">We have to discuss this in all sincerity and I will start in next column.</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21px;">(Continuation > click </span><a href="http://jawaplaintalk.blogspot.se/2012/04/what-can-we-learn-from-our-predecessors.html">HERE</a><span style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21px;"> to read </span></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif;"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 21px;"><i><b>What can we learn from our predecessors?)</b></i></span></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div>Jan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5120210650085471884.post-22518241093842026862012-04-17T01:38:00.003-07:002012-04-17T04:47:58.445-07:00Things Are Falling Apart<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;"></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><i><br />
</i></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">A well known metaphor to architects (of my age) is – <i>Architecture is Frozen Music</i>. Unfortunately, today’s music is half melted stuff and not easily possible to understand in a lyrical metaphor. But there have been other times (and other musicians and architects).<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In the beginning of the 40-ties, Duke Ellington presented “Things Ain’t What They Used to Be” – the New Deal in US was working fine and the energy supply to people seemed forever unfailing.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Charlie Parker blow his “Now’s the Time” and that was new music, bebop called. Different from the swinging lullaby’s of the 1930-ies and preparing for a new musical era.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">But, already in the 50-ies, Jule Styne composed the evergreen “The Party’s Over”, with some foresight and Frank Sinatra made it a hit. About the same time as the neo-liberalism was born – the economical regime we been living under since then. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The old musicians had a very good sense of the times! Now it is unfortunately a completely commercialized music industry that only provides “lullaby’s”. Mostly rapping and unbelievable nonsense! Latest hit being “I Wanna Be Rich” according to GabzFm polls.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Where are the Bob Marley’s and Fela Khuti’s of today? The likes of Ellington, Parker and Styne that could “freeze” music to everlasting comments on contemporary times? This leads to some questions:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Where are the critical architects and town planners of today?<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Can we learn something and prepare ourselves to meet the future clients?<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Well, we “innocent” people are inside a big glistering bubble of over-consumption and too spoilt to understand, it seems. We have seen small, hardly noticeable writings about it in our papers and media, but mostly it goes unnoticed. Why – well, papers and most media is owned by big corporations today and even small papers are depending on advertising.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Meaning that we should not read and understand real problems – just go on consuming – this is well known today. “Don’t Upset Advertisers” – DUA it is called by media pundits. Get your information from the ones that run the show! People should go on consuming over their salary limits on loans. So should countries and nations. Nations are now going bankrupted in an ever increasing degree. Band Aids are put on but, in fact, won’t help in the long run. Reason being that “help” is also loans! Often helped by tax money that is <i>our</i> money and this is what is used for bailing out the banks!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Most flashy cars we see are also on loans. Hundreds of insiders in the financial circus are saying – get rid of loans, quickly! Referring to nations and individuals all the same. Despite this, we are going on with the dance around the golden calf – it’s surreal!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Fortunately, for the time being, we have an “open” media – Internet. Some people have found a way of getting unbiased information from there. I recommend internet and use it for as long it is allowed to be “free”.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">So where are we today in our developments? <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Let’s see what the architects in our country propose, for a start.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">What we see is a kind of Disneyland of many unconnected buildings, standing side by side as asking for a dance at some fancy dress party.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Most “designs” are cut out of some flush magazine where they were attributed by the modern architecture pundits to some kind of interesting <i>-ism</i>. So we have a bunch of imitations – a kaleidoscope of recent -<i>isms </i>with no relation whatsoever with each other. This is a laughing matter for genuine architects visiting this country – I remember Ralph Erskine’s visit in 1992! The small developments (by then) made him caution us for what’s coming if not regulated (by ourselves – the architects and town planners).<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">That’s only the aesthetics of it – a laughing matter! Let’s look at the sustainability of it in a less energy abundant world!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">And that’s more serious – architects and town planners are the client’s confidents and responsible agents for the future of his building! <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Now buildings are much more expensive than necessary, more energy consuming than necessary and not sustainable to a world of less abundance! I will pursue this issue next time.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 200%;">Let’s look at that in the next column called “How Fast Are Things Falling Apart”, hopefully followed by “What Can We Learn From Our Predecessors”.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 200%;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Jan Wareus 21/07/11 <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
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</i></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;">Lyrics for “The Party’s Over” <o:p></o:p></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The party’s over<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">It’s time to call it a day<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">They’ve burst our pretty balloons and taken the moon away<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">It’s time to wind up the masquerade<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Just make your mind up<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-ZA" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The piper must be paid!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><span style="line-height: 14px;"><i><br />
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(Continuation > click <a href="http://jawaplaintalk.blogspot.se/2012/04/how-fast-are-things-falling-apart.html">HERE</a> to read <i><b>How fast are things falling apart</b></i>)<br />
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</div>Jan Wareushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06081048873985619753noreply@blogger.com0