It ain't necessarily so (Miles Davis version)

This time I will touch upon a few different but in my view connected matters – first...

As we all know, imported goods are unnecessarily expensive here due to transport costs.            

And as I have argued so far in my writings, transport costs will escalate very much in the future.  This is due to the oil bubble bursting. The oil producing countries know very well that they have a finite product and the last drops will be expensive – and they want to keep the last barrels for themselves. Furthermore, it is confusing to see that the distributors (Exxon, Mobile, BP, Shell et al) seemingly have a deep stance in the crude oil production, too  – covering the whole line from extracting to the deliverance.  That’s obviously what happens on a free, unregulated market!  I don’t understand the record profits they have just now if this isn’t the explanation.

So the unregulated, free trade market is making record profits of the very basic necessity for the GDP growth, as we know it so far – in fact killing it. And consequently killing all kinds of fumbling small industrialization attempts for the developing countries – where we belong.

 Consequently, we have to do what the now industrialized countries once did. Start local production and protect it from unfair competition. That was actually the basis for the so called Bretton Woods Concept!

We must have a construction material production of our own and cut the ever escalating transport costs. As well as putting more people into production!   

As a matter of fact – the same goes for food production and electricity. We have realized this, now, and hopefully we will soon have the house in order.  Outstanding  examples  are  diamond sorting and polishing, glass manufacturing and more. We have a brick factory that cannot compete with our neighbour in the south, so some kind of protection is needed (as it is for eggs, chicken and poultry and now and then, tomatoes, too).

Obviously our government is aware of the modern economical follies as some kind of anti-neoliberal concepts are in use despite the propaganda from World Bank, IMF and WTO with its “tamed” economists from the Chicago School of Economics. 

In this situation we have to strongly convince ourselves and possible investors that we locally have to secure a construction industry of our own as I indicated in last column.

I leave the rest of arguing to the new generation of “dissident” economists that now and then are writing intelligible in our papers or you can find on the Web.  GS Mantowe mentioned some in his latest column that I know you read.   On my part I recommend you to read Herman Daly (professor in environmental science and former World Bank expert – see Daly News on Google). He knows a great deal about our future!

Now another topic that will lead to a third one and I find them being connected.

In my bookshelf I have “Ralph Erskine – Architect” (Byggforlaget, Stockholm 1990), and I want to quote some lines in the following:

Erskine often spoke to guests at international congresses as well to students and fellow architects. In such a company his role was to warn of the risks of following trends and temporary whims – in his view, “postmodernism is a harlot touting flashy packaging for capitalism”. He also often spoke of the need to create mixed-use communities of buildings in harmony with one another.

For him beauty was not necessarily what was elegant – he said that “God created not just the speedy elegant gazelle but also the pig. Just like the pig, slightly clumsy, thick buildings can be beautiful provided they terminate with a neat flourish”.

And now, how to illustrate some of the more than 200 projects in RE’s diary? And suddenly it has become obvious how to do it...

Mmegi  02 March 2012 has an article by Gothataone Moeng about the often mentioned “lack of landmarks” in Gaborone. A few professional architects are mentioned and quoted, among them Leta Mosienyane and Nick Njarange. They complain, bitterly!

But neither of them is pointing the finger to where it should be pointing – to the architects! They seem to be missing some organization outside the architectural field that should be responsible. But there is no other than the architects that should be accused of the ignorance for the missing beauty of our capital, in my opinion.

They are the ones designing new buildings with no connection to other buildings. Facing different directions, being high, medium or low, according to Killion Mokwete, also interviewed.

Are these “prominent” architects asking for help by DTRP, Town Councils or what?

Why can’t the architectural profession come up with an “aesthetical and concurrence board” similar to what they have in Paris, London and New York (even Stockholm, by the way)? Why do they ask to be spoon fed with regulations? Haven’t they the professional background to solve the problem they are complaining about? Isn’t it a fight on “home grounds”?

Well, I’m pessimistic. I don’t think they are willing to take the responsibility to come up with a city of some kind of coherent beauty. They prefer the masquerade – the fancy dress party and then point the finger somewhere else! They all tried their own “landmark” and failed due to lack of co-operation.

So, finally, let me introduce to you an Erskine landmark project (done in collaboration with his old architect friends – a normal working condition for him) now built in Stockholm - the Wasa Terminal.

In brief, it is a covering a large part of the Central Station and opening up an enormous amount of bus, office, and commercial space on what was earlier supposed to be an impediment, a “fault line” in the City, like the one we have. The commercial success was enormous and something similar can be made in Gaborone, I’m sure.

In earlier articles and in other papers, I have mentioned this to no avail. The double spur from New Naledi to Segoditshane Valley must be dug down. No problem! The goods yard moved outside the immediate urban area.  And all of a sudden we have an enormous area that could be opened for development! As well as connecting Gab West with Gab East – what a relief for pedestrians! And we will have a prestigious terminal for our long haul busses and spur based commuting, too. (Fortunately, we already have a terminal for the hundreds of kombi’s we have to live with for years, if I understand the situation right.)

Furthermore, it is obvious to me that Botswana Railways, the major landowner in the area, nowadays is very much interested in making money from real estate.

And, with collaboration between the architects, the possible “landmark” that is wanted, will hopefully be possible.  But organize yourself and work together.  Maybe you should ask for a competition among selected consortiums (it’s a too big project for any existing firm of today). Maybe it could result in something as impressive as the proposal by SHoP Architects for the Innovation Hub.

And act while it is still money around for this kind of projects. I wish you luck! Below I will give you an idea how RE and his friends made it in Stockholm (see pic). And note, the necessary glass-covered, indoor concept, there,  could here become a carbon-friendly shaded area, here.

Pic of Wasa Terminal in Central Stockholm

Blues for Pablo (Miles Davis)

I must start by welcome Mr G S Manowe (GSM) to Boidus and his column “Going Green”.

I felt a bit uneasy with the thought that I had to go into “the Green Fields”, as I have difficulties to differ from wizard-ism and plain-talk pragmatism. But I’m sure that that GSM doesn’t have this problem, being a senior architect with many years experience.

As he mentioned in his writing in the February issue, 40 % of the world’s total energy demand and close to 70 % of the total electricity consumption goes to the building sector, as well as 65 % of the worlds waste. 

These are figures that should make us in the architectural and planning fields a bit uneasy, to say the least. The situation is precarious:

We all in the development professions have without much intelligence (but it has been warnings), been picking the easy reached, low hanging fruits for more than two centuries of industrialization. And, gee, what a boom – for a few! But now we have to face a situation when the fruits are not so easy to reach and we have to pay a price we never considered before. That’s the energy or peak oil bubble! There is still energy/oil there but to a price we never could imagine (if we didn’t read the warnings). If we are careful in the use of the remaining resources, we might have time to adjust peacefully. But time is slipping and soon it’s too late to adjust in some kind of order. In principle, that’s what I have been saying so far in my Boidus columns.

We here in Botswana have, in my opinion, a quite unique situation. Most of our building material used today is imported and we must pay heavily for transportation. So it has been for many years and no one has said with emphasis – BOTSWANA MUST SECURE A PRODUCTION OF BUILDING MATERIALS OF ITS OWN!  

We have all the needed resources and hopefully an energy situation that other countries will envy within short (based on our own recourses, too). The problem, as far as I can see, is that we have not created a local and modern self-sufficient building tradition – we are thoughtlessly copying the so called developed countries that are soon in the gutter. Sky-scrapers, glass, aluminium, steel and more of highly embodied energy stuff, as I indicated in a previous blog, are the theme of the day – imitating the western model.

Consequently, I think we architects and town planners have to study design and building against the situation of less energy abundance.

And how to handle such a situation of “less abundance” was the reason for me to mention Alvar Aalto and the situation in Finland after WW2. Amazing what kind of art can come out from such conditions, isn’t it?

I guess there is more to say about Alvar Aalto - interviewed, he was always sparing his words – the quiet creator of art that talked its own language! However, in an inspired situation, he spoke. For instance:

“Architecture has often in these days been compared to science and its methods have been endeavoured to become more “scientific”. Even to become a science by itself by including more of complex mathematics.  But it is no science – it is a synthetic process, a conglomeration of thousands of important human functions and will be so to the end of humans” (Nov 1940).

Further – “If architecture will have a deeper human value, it must primarily sort out the economical side of it” – and this gives me a point in this discussion.

This “economical side of it” is changing rapidly just now. All imported goods, are excessively expensive due to escalating transport costs. This is not a good basis for a sustainable construction industry in Botswana.

As we have most of the needed raw materials available, and soon a self sufficient power/electricity production, we have to localize the production of building materials. And use less of high embodied energy materials – more of traditional building materials.

It was interesting to read Mr Mokwete’s presentation of his project in Maitengwe in the latest issue of Boidus Focus, although I don’t think that vernacular design is the only concept for the future. But the project clearly shows that simple, traditional materials still are in use and there are skilled builders that can handle them, still.

The Maitengwe project also indicates that traditional thatching grass still is available and will guarantee a healthy indoor climate. But it is a material that is hard to find to decent prices these days as it must be collected from nature.

Now I happen to know that thatching grass can be commercially grown and harvested like in SA and we currently have to buy our thatch from there to a high price.  But this is not necessary. A few hundred small farmers here could plant and grow it and provide for a growing market here. Maybe, we should start with some small project like Maitengwe and then go on with more substantial, long lasting and reusable building materials?

But there is obviously a long way to go for the use of traditional materials and constructions. To me, it looks like the regulations we have are deliberately cutting out the use of traditional materials, today. I need help from practising architects and designers to clear this issue – please, let me know the situation with all kinds of examples you can pinpoint!

I know that the Lobatse Clay Works haven’t become a success – but I haven’t seen the real reasons why, yet. A thorough analysis of this project must be made – maybe it needed some kind of protected market as most of industrial projects in smaller countries need. But this is nowadays totally ignored by the neo-liberal economy preached by IMT, World Bank and other Washington Consensus organisations. As if the protected market wasn’t the prerogative for western development, once upon a time!

There are many aspects to discuss on this issue of “securing a production of our own” and I will be back on these aspects in later blogs.

To conclude this one, I will be quoting Ralph Erskine from his lecture at the Royal Society of Arts in 1982:

“Energy is a valuable but not inexhaustible and often much polluting resource. Buildings consequently must be simple and well insulated in both hot and cold climates. The size of windows must be restricted. Glass architecture, often considered to be beautiful, must be regarded as a symbol for a naive, lavish and irresponsible culture. A new and well thought-out, responsible architecture must be worked out.”

And this has very much to do with “Going Green”, I assume.

May I suggest that Boidus Focus put a small sum into the printing of a car-sticker for me and my friends? If you read this, you know what it should say!

Pablo Casals once said : "Situation is hopeless- lets take another step."

As it has been noted by some readers, my “homepage” on the Web isn’t known to all of you. If you google  <janwareus.blogspot.com>  you find the start of it with some essays on Sowa Town (now close to a 20 year celebration) and background to this project. More will come if the Web server functiosn more than every second day and the power cuts will be for more places than Gabane, just.

Now’s the Time -(Charlie Parker song from 1952)

What I have indicated so far about the future is well known for most planners and architects but we seem to have some “commercial” blinders on. We must ask ourselves – Are we advising clients and decision-makers the right things?

Clearly not - so where do we go from here?

Well – let’s have a look at some tables from the Canadian Architects blog. We start with “Measures of Sustainability – embodied energy” – the basis for trying to be energy sufficient – the “embodied energy” in the building materials used and recommended by architects is important.  Follows here:

As can be seen – architects here are mostly preferring steel, aluminium, glass and other materials that are on the top/bottom of the “embodied energy” list. Why? Is it just that the well-known “icons” used it frequently in the past? Should it be the same today – they would certainly not have done that (remember Alvar Aalto).


And those materials, by necessity seemingly, give us high-rise buildings in need air-cons, lifts etc - in a country that already is on her back because of power breaks and badly planned supply – and as we know, power will be severely more expensive in the future if even a bit more reliable some doesn’t think so, by the way!


It should also be noted that the table is “Canadian” – the transport factor is consequently less than for Botswana!


How do we handle this knowledge in a world of less abundance of cheap energy?


Firstly, we have to encourage local production of building materials – we have all raw materials needed for that! Secondly, we have to design buildings that are not inherently in need of excessive energy for longevity – including normal maintenance. The former resident architect Ian Marshall once indicated that for us. (And Boidus has an interesting article by IM that I hope they will print one day.)


He made some ground clearing designs for UB and Government in the 80-ies that are in good shape (and good looking) still!


Now we have to look into the next important design issue for architects – Measures of Sustainability (incl. operating energy). These are highly important factors for sustainable design but unfortunately impossible to make an abridged presentation of here – we have to advice the interested architect to go to the sources – http://www.canadianarchitect.com/asf/perspectives_sustainability.


The conclusion of that paper reads as follows:

“Although both energy use and greenhouse gas emissions increased in Canada between 1990 and 1999, the increase would have been much greater if not for improvements in energy efficiency. As a result of this progress, Canadians are saving about $5 billion per year in energy costs, and greenhouse gas emissions are five percent below what they would otherwise have been.

Viewed from the perspective of national debt, operating energy is a vital indicator of sustainability.”

Yes – so much for architectural design and sustainability! Let’s go to town planning.

For you to understand – I must confess the following:

I’m an architect from Sweden (exam from 1965) – totally against the bureaucratic dictatorship of planning regulations! Town planning was in my learning time quite subordinate to the art of architecture and building. In my mind, so it should be – putting a lot of responsibility upon architects.

And here we are – a situation when “town planners” are making up plans for 2025 and more, extrapolating 1995 trends into 2025!

In my answer book, I have the concepts we used we used in Stockholm City Planning Department - we made “provisional plans” and started a discussion with the architects appointed for the jobs. Not until an agreement was reached, the plan was taken for approval!

The plans were indicative until the architects were in agreement. And this attitude goes well with a future of “less abundance” and more or less zero growth.

So I see so called specialized town planners unnecessary – a revival of the old academic teaching concept of architects will do. The “technical and rational” town planning concept is a part of the site planning for the architect – as it has been for centuries prior to the neo-liberal concept of putting harness onto architects. Seems hard as an opinion but nevertheless true! The economical pundits never liked the “jack-of-all-trades” - the architects. Or any intellectuals, by the way!

However, here we are, we so called town planners, for some time, still.

What can we do in a situation of no economical growth and less energy?

Well, let’s be happy we are not in the US! For more than 50 yrs the so called “suburban concept” has been implemented and now looks like a dead end. No way out except by turning around 180 degrees, and money will not be available for such a turn. So, they must find a way of getting services and jobs within walking distance for the people with no choice!

The suburb will be there for generations as the infrastructure was expensive and there are very few dollars in the future. US planners have serious problems when trying to “recycle” their suburbs, indeed. But it is possible, I think.

For them and us the problem will be Public Transport. And finding a changed school system as – no private schools scattered all over town – local schools, instead – a challenge for the authorities!  Schools and services within walking distances!

As I understand, it is possible here in our towns and settlements, but, as I said – a revised (esp. educational planning policy) is needed. We must plan what we can implement in the near future.  And leave some pointers, arrows, whatever for the long term unknown future. The days of the 25 yr planning period are gone – totally unknown to us (as it has been for many yrs to the ones who read reports from various energy authorities).

I have been writing about the importance of a change in the transport and road system for yrs, now. And finally I find a learned friend, Jayson Sechele – listen to his advice, if you don’t believe me! That’s how things should be handled. 

Let’s start the discussion, now. It’s soon too late!

 (Continuation > click HERE to read 

Future Ain’t What It Used to Be

It is interesting to note that, historically, empires are born, grow and contract , almost disappear, except for some ruins. But mostly leaving some cultural achievements, even writings, to us some steps behind.

For instance, Babylon (the Eufrat, Tigris empire - what’s now Iraq), ancient Egypt (the pharaoh land), old Greece and Rome collapsed. Caused by some kind of hubris or ignorance of environmental restrictions and consequent destruction of the basis for their sustainability. They depleted their resources and civilizations built on limited resources could/cannot survive.

But they left a tremendous cultural inheritance to us.

What are we leaving behind for future generations – that’s something to think about but I leave the question for now. However, it will hardly be our architecture and organization of communities – our town planning! We seriously have to look into more sustainable alternatives!

How do we adopt to a decrease in energy supply and consequent drop in economy growth? How do we keep the “necessities” we are used to in the post-industrial years – our current “lifestyle”? Our SUV’s, limousines, and weekend trips to the village and weekend houses? How do we get to our jobs and schools when fuel is scarce and expensive?

Well, in a way we are lucky! We haven’t yet totally adopted and mimicked the western countries, the so called “developed” ones. This will be one of my points in following writings.

I will also try and pose a few questions and hints with regards to our profession as architects and town planners. It’s based on my experience from our 3^rd world country – Botswana – and I am happy I am here in the days to come. But first some recap of the current situation: 

ExxonMobil presents its outlooks until 2030 on website <exxonmobil.com/ energyoutlook> and some of the findings regarding future fuel deficit are:

·         One of the most important “fuels” of all is energy efficiency;

·         Technology is essential on all fronts.

T The seriousness of ExxonMobil’s comments is underpinned by following graph from Roy E Anderson’s article in <Energy Bulletin.net> “When Oil and Gas Are Depleted” (2011/08/02):

When reading this graph, it should be noted that Roy Anderson is one of the more “optimistic” forecasters. The depletion of energy resources is steady but spread over a 75 yr period. Many writers think the period is shorter and might be very violent as for Iraq and Libya.

The “ever growing need” of 1.5% a year is indicated and the completely new energy situation and the end of our small children’s life is evident. It is back to 1850 in fact! But it gives us some time to come up with Plan B, the plan we neglected to come up with 50 yrs ago when the situation now was clearly foreseen. But surely it means a different lifestyle – however, some writers think this might become an increase of life quality instead.

What will be the major problems we have to resolve?

According to Roy E Anderson some problems for the 10 billion people at end of the century will be: (quote)

·         Feed them without nitrogen fertilizers and bulk transport

·         Cloth them with only natural fibres

·         House them without oil or gas heat

·         Sustain and satisfy millions of unemployed

·         Provide water in a changed environment

·         Build structures without oil and gas to harvest energy from renewable sources

·         Provide adequate information re. recording, processing and distribution of what we know today

And these problems and others must be solved within the lifetime of a person born today. (end quote)

The last problem he mentions is very interesting. Information today is often in computers and networks based on chips and cell phones.

The manufacture of computers and cell phones as well as the running of them is also very energy and resource consuming, unfortunately, apart from being a thorn in the flesh for many rulers.

It is hardly conceivable that the means to read information on chips will survive for many future generations – where are the necessary batteries, for instance?  We’ve already loosed the skill to design “by hand” – all architects/town planners today are in some kind of CAD computer programme. My old professor said – you lose your “handwriting” and you’ve lost your skill!

But it is our obligation to insure that the knowledge we gain of our situation is preserved and available for our followers just as was done by past civilizations.

Something to think about until next time!

(Continuation > click HERE to read  Now’s the Time)

What can we learn from our predecessors?

Many worried people today are hoping for alternative energy sources. But a traditionalist like me is pessimistic about the future and optimistic about the past.

Right now we are exploring wind power in large so called “farms” around shores and islands all over Europe, mainly. There are also so called bio-fuel but we know that this is merely food deficiency at the other end. Today we know that these alternatives are just marginal to the old “free flowing oil” and coal. The technology behind is extremely expensive and can cover for just between 1- 2 % of current demand and will need a lot of our conventional energy (oil and coal) for maintenance and function.

So – is the party over? Maybe not quite but let’s start brain-storming about a world of less abundance and its impact on construction and planning here in Botswana.

We start with finding out what architects were forced to consider in time of crisis e.g. reconstruction after WW2 in Europe.

Finland comes to my mind – a country that came out from the WW2 on the wrong side and was boycotted from the various aids at the time. Thus completely void of steel for reinforcement of concrete, plastics and the like and other materials on the “right” and supported side (West).

Architects in Finland had to use the local materials – brick and wood predominantly.

And became masters in using it in new configurations. And had to keep buildings to a scale and height that was possible. Hence an architectural marvel happened – Alvar Aalto and his designs! He is the modern master of building in bricks and using wooden structures together with it!

This became his “functionalism” but is called “organic building” by the adoring pundits of today. We must learn from his example in a world of less abundance!

Another famous architect of a more voluntary “less abundant” kind is Ralph Erskine. His buildings (and town plans) are also “organic” – as grown out of the ground. For him, his attitude was not unavailability of modern materials. Rather a self imposed restriction due to his Quaker background – a kind of environmental attitude – he managed for instance to build a large student facility with library, dining hall, sports centre in a beautiful meadow full of century old oak trees without knocking down a single one (Stockholm University)! Hope I can show you some pics one day.

As architects and planners you are familiar with these icons and I don’t have to be long-winded. They both bow to nature and teach us to live and build with nature. Believe me – we have first class examples for our future dealing with a world of less abundance!

Our problems will most certainly be not so much possible design principles as convincing our clients what must be done. And the number of clients will also be less abundant – a situation we must learn to live with for the future, unfortunately.

This will mean a lot for the university and architect’s studios. We better prepare for a widening of our responsibility with more concentration on environmental issues, I guess. We will have a lot of problems created by the economy and industrialization that have been running without harness for long. But the “Jack of all trades” label we have might be useful for us.

I will go on with this issue of the architects and townplanners in the future in coming writing, if you don’t mind.

I will end with a memory of my first meeting with Alvar Aalto:

At a study tour to Finland in 1993, some students (me included) were invited to meet the icon AA at his office outside Helsinki. Our prof Gunnar Hoving, was schoolmate to AA in the early 20-ies. We met AA dressed in pyjama and gown at 11oo in the morning after he, as usual, had spent his night with a project.

“Hoho–Gunnar, some more Arrrkkitects to be?”

“Well, my boys (looking sternly at our oldest one – 42yrs old) and little Lady (looking at a scared 19 yrs old girl among us) – you are going to be Arrrkkitects? 

But times are wrong! Gunnar and I were lucky – the party’s over now! You might be fine draftsmen for some time but the INDUSTRIALISM you are working for is committing suicide!”

He didn’t mention oil and resources, then – but he meant that “development” was outside reach from governments and commoners/voters. In the hand of a few feudal “kings”! This we heard from AA who was known as being conservative!!

Of course he asked some trusted staff to show us his latest “organic” designs, meanwhile himself and Gunnar had a quick glass of some kind.

He never discussed his own creations – “you see what you see and nothing is hidden, but maybe, implicit – if you see what I mean”!

As I said- this was in 1963! But the future was already evident by then.

So “implicitism” was born to me and the only -ism among architects I accept but, naturally, never understand fully. The same you see in Erskine’s and F L Wright’s works or any other fine Architect’s creations – art and metaphysics in holy merger!






(Continuation > click HERE to read Future Ain’t What It Used to Be)

How Fast Are Things Falling Apart

To be honest, there are disagreements among energy and economic scholars about the pace of the breakdown of the over-industrialized era (and its dependence on cheap energy) but not the inevitable results.

There simply won’t be money enough to pay for further growth – nationally and individually! Countries burden by too many debts will go bankrupt and who will bail nations out in the long run – when our tax money is depleted?

The time margins now discussed are, however, just one decade, for some scholars just one or two years, but we are facing it.

And what we build and construct now has a lifespan (on paper) for more than 50 years! All development plans I have been involved in, talk about a 25 years lifespan. So called “blind” futurology (rather with blinkers) – extrapolating unsustainable trends into the future! We should know better...

Why am I writing about a bleak future? Well, having survived a number of smaller bursts, I have to prepare myself and my colleagues for what’s coming – it will be worse and we in the profession must prepare!

Let me for short give you some quotations from my internet sources:

·        Massive worldwide economic growth of the past two centuries was enabled by the newfound ability to exploit cheap, abundant energy of (finite) fossil fuels – Heinberg  (www. post carbon institute)

·        The oil world has changed – and this means a power shock to the energy system, coinciding with a seismic shift in the world’s economic and financial systems – Heinberg

·         If the oil stops flowing in recent quantities, global trade as we know it grinds to a standstill – Heinberg

·         Unfortunately, there is a desire to hope for the best but we have to prepare for the worst – Hugh-Smith (www.oftwominds.com)

·         Growth depends on energy but we are learned that it solely depends on capital, production and labour – forgetting resources –Martenson  (chrismartenson.com)

Indeed - Thing’s ain’t what they used to be!

A few voices among many on the net! Others are “Chomsky.info” and John Michael Greer on “www.The Archdruid Report” – read them!

Yes, there are some whistle blowers! Seldom any official, government based reports, though. No, actually, there are even a few such ones but never quoted in the papers, as media today are “privatized” and reluctant to upset us. They are more for scandals around “the dolls in their strings”!

BUT – this year the International Energy Agency (IEA), the adviser to both OPEC and about 23 major governments around the world, had to admit:

“Crude oil output reaches an undulating plateau of around 68-69 mb/d (million barrels per day) by 2020, but never regains its all-time peak of 70 mb/d reached in 2006” – So it goes and IEA has for many years tried the best to keep consumers and nations sleeping nice, a fact according to whistle blowers from IEA.

Following graph is the “most optimistic scenario” for the coming years from IEA – note that it is basing the outlook on the fact that OPEC, the owners of the oil, will cut down their own use to a high degree – is that why Western countries are implementing the Carter Doctrine (securing oil for the West – Libya, Egypt, Iraq and Iran are OPEC members).

So, yes, its pretty much expected that China and India, et al., will increasing their consumption by rates much (much) higher than 0.5%, which means, logically, that some other countries will have to consume at negative rates in order for the equation to balance.

And this is exactly what the IEA has modeled and proposed: 

And, honestly, our current global free trade system needs an increase to more than 90 mb/d in the next yrs to keep the current (2010) growth.

So, why do I bother to mention this? I feel that - Now’s the time – to

adjust to new facts.

I’m not a self-torturer – but I want to know what’s behind the bend of the road!  How can we as architects and town planners prepare for an era of scaling down growth expectations and save energy?

We have to discuss this in all sincerity and I will start in next column.

(Continuation > click HERE to read  What can we learn from our predecessors?)

Things Are Falling Apart

A well known metaphor to architects (of my age) is – Architecture is Frozen Music. Unfortunately, today’s music is half melted stuff and not easily possible to understand in a lyrical metaphor. But there have been other times (and other musicians and architects).

In the beginning of the 40-ties, Duke Ellington presented “Things Ain’t What They Used to Be” – the New Deal in US was working fine and the energy supply to people seemed forever unfailing.

Charlie Parker blow his “Now’s the Time” and that was new music, bebop called. Different from the swinging lullaby’s of the 1930-ies and preparing for a new musical era.

But, already in the 50-ies, Jule Styne composed the evergreen “The Party’s Over”, with some foresight and Frank Sinatra made it a hit. About the same time as the neo-liberalism was born – the economical regime we been living under since then.

The old musicians had a very good sense of the times! Now it is unfortunately a completely commercialized music industry that only provides “lullaby’s”. Mostly rapping and unbelievable nonsense! Latest hit being “I Wanna Be Rich” according to GabzFm polls.

Where are the Bob Marley’s and Fela Khuti’s of today? The likes of Ellington, Parker and Styne that could “freeze” music to everlasting comments on contemporary times? This leads to some questions:

·         Where are the critical architects and town planners of today?

·         Can we learn something and prepare ourselves to meet the future clients?

Well, we “innocent” people are inside a big glistering bubble of over-consumption and too spoilt to understand, it seems. We have seen small, hardly noticeable writings about it in our papers and media, but mostly it goes unnoticed. Why – well, papers and most media is owned by big corporations today and even small papers are depending on advertising.

Meaning that we should not read and understand real problems – just go on consuming – this is well known today. “Don’t Upset Advertisers” – DUA it is called by media pundits. Get your information from the ones that run the show! People should go on consuming over their salary limits on loans. So should countries and nations. Nations are now going bankrupted in an ever increasing degree. Band Aids are put on but, in fact, won’t help in the long run. Reason being that “help” is also loans! Often helped by tax money that is our money and this is what is used for bailing out the banks!

Most flashy cars we see are also on loans. Hundreds of insiders in the financial circus are saying – get rid of loans, quickly! Referring to nations and individuals all the same. Despite this, we are going on with the dance around the golden calf – it’s surreal!

Fortunately, for the time being, we have an “open” media – Internet. Some people have found a way of getting unbiased information from there. I recommend internet and use it for as long it is allowed to be “free”.

So where are we today in our developments?

Let’s see what the architects in our country propose, for a start.

What we see is a kind of Disneyland of many unconnected buildings, standing side by side as asking for a dance at some fancy dress party.

Most “designs” are cut out of some flush magazine where they were attributed by the modern architecture pundits to some kind of interesting -ism. So we have a bunch of imitations – a kaleidoscope of recent  -isms with no relation whatsoever with each other. This is a laughing matter for genuine architects visiting this country – I remember Ralph Erskine’s visit in 1992! The small developments (by then) made him caution us for what’s coming if not regulated (by ourselves – the architects and town planners).

That’s only the aesthetics of it – a laughing matter! Let’s look at the sustainability of it in a less energy abundant world!

And that’s more serious – architects and town planners are the client’s confidents and responsible agents for the future of his building!

Now buildings are much more expensive than necessary, more energy consuming than necessary and not sustainable to a world of less abundance! I will pursue this issue next time.

Let’s look at that in the next column called “How Fast Are Things Falling Apart”, hopefully followed by “What Can We Learn From Our Predecessors”.

Jan Wareus 21/07/11                            

Lyrics for “The Party’s Over”

The party’s over

It’s time to call it a day

They’ve burst our pretty balloons and taken the moon away

It’s time to wind up the masquerade

Just make your mind up

The piper must be paid!

(Continuation > click HERE to read  How fast are things falling apart)